Why do the Indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South Behave like Colonial Subjects of Nigeria?

Why do the Indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South Behave like Colonial Subjects of Nigeria?

Priye S. Torulagha

Introduction

Politics is defined currently as “who gets what, when, and how” (Dye). David Easton defines it as the “authoritative allocation of values” (Hanumanthappa ,2023. This definition implies that only those who consciously fight for their political, economic, legal, and human rights through political and legal means will determine who “gets what, when and how” of political power and public resources.  On the other hand, those who sit on the sidelines and expect to “get what, when, and how” will end up with little or nothing because politics is a struggle for power over rulership and the sharing of resources. Both political power and resources are scarce commodities, therefore, only those who fight stridently will prevail in ruling and enjoying a greater portion of the national resources and those who do little, or nothing will get very little.

This is why in every country in the world, the rich always get more and the poor always get the least from the state because rich people are very active trying to dominate the state and capture most of the available resources.  On the other hand, the poor always get the least even though they need the most.  The reason is that they complain a lot but always fail to mobilize themselves in a manner that is sufficient to influence government policy.  This seems to be the case globally. This is why some political thinkers and analysts infer that there is no such a  thing as democracy since the elites dominate the political system in every country in the world. 

An ethnic group in Nigeria which takes the definition of politics very seriously is the Fulani nationality.  As a result, despite their smaller numbers, the Fulanis have been able to dominate Nigerian politics to the extent of serving as the primary power-wielding group in the country.  This is why all the would-be-presidential candidates in Nigeria always pay visit to the Sultan of Sokoto and other high-powered Fulani political and religious elites to receive their blessings. On the other hand, the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South seem to have the slightest appreciation for the weightiness of the “who gets what, when, and how” definition of politics.  As a result, instead of being proactive in pursuing their political, economic, legal, and human rights, they wait patiently for the those who wield political power in Nigeria to come and knock at their doors and give them a fair share of the wealth generated from resources in their region. The sad part is that the inhabitants of the oil region do not even realize that they have enormous political and economic power in Nigeria due to the strategic importance of oil and gas in Nigeria and globally. Indeed, no region in Nigeria commands so much power as the Niger Delta/South-South but the Niger Deltans do not know how exercise to use their resources to their advantage.

The lesson here is that the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South cannot and must not sit idly by and expect those who wield power in Nigeria to do the right thing and treat them fairly in the management of oil and gas and the sharing of the wealth generated.  The reason is that politics, as defined above, calls for active involvement in demanding your rights.  

Purpose of the Article

The purpose of this article is to identify the factors and circumstances which tend to portray the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South as colonial subjects of Nigeria.  To accomplish the task, the following arguments are made: (1) the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South have failed to pay attention to the fact that politics is a struggle for power and control of resources; (2) due to lack of appreciation of the importance of politics, they allow themselves to be treated like colonial subjects of Nigeria, thereby, justifying their being exploited by those who wield national political power; (3) they do not realize and appreciate the fact that they have tremendous political and economic clout due to the availability of oil and gas in their territory and (4) due to lack of appreciation for the tremendous power they possess, they inadvertently accept to be treated as colonial subjects by allowing Nigeria to apply a double standard in the management of mineral resources in the country to their disadvantage.

 It is essential to define colonialism in order to understand why the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South act passively as if they are colonial subjects, thereby failing to proactively defend their political, legal, and economic rights in Nigeria. What is colonialism? The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) defines colonialism “as the practice of controlling another country or area and exploiting its people and resources,” (2023, February 14).  According to Aniete A. Inyang and Manasseh Bassey, colonialism is:

A system of rule which assumes the right of one people to impose their will upon another leading inevitably to a situation of dominance and dependency which will systematically subordinate these governed by it to the imported culture in social, economic, and political life (2014, September, p. 1945).

Based on this definition, the Niger Delta/South-South is colonized, and the oil and gas resources are exploited by Nigeria for the betterment of other parts of the country to the disadvantage of the inhabitants of the region.  Due to the exploitative relationship, they have internalized the treatment, hence, behave as if they are colonial subjects of Nigeria by failing to actively pursue and protect their interests through pushing for resource control since Nigeria has failed to nationalize solid minerals. Instead of using proactive political and legal tactics to put pressure and influence national policy in favor of resource control, they sit back and wait to be compensated based on the decision of those who wield national power and make public policy over oil and gas. They have not been able to compel the Federal Government to institute a proactive environmental pollution cleaning regime in the region after more than sixty years of oil exploration.

The Reaction of the Oil Region Towards the Double Standard in the Management and Regulation of Natural Minerals

This article is written after a critical examination of the way Nigerians from the oil region react in ways that baffle the mind concerning the double standard that exist in the Federal Government’s management, regulation, and enforcement of national laws dealing with mineral resources in the country. Consequently, the following is the systematic identification of the failures of the inhabitants of the Niger Delta/South-South to actively fight politically and legally for their political, legal, and economic rights over the control and management of mineral resources in the region.

First, the late Gen. David Ejoor first noticed a double standard being manifested by the Federal Government of Nigeria.  He noted that while President Olusegun Obasanjo was in power as a civilian president, both the Niger Delta and a section of the Southwestern region, particularly the Ife and Modakeke people had disputes that led to violent confrontations over the ownership of land and the rights to own mineral resources.  Gen. Ejoor noted that President Obasanjo did not hesitate to send the Nigerian military to the Niger Delta to ensure that oil operations were not disturbed following intertribal conflicts in the Warri area.  On the other hand, even though the Ife and Modakeke conflict was over the illegal mining of gold and sharing of the wealth generated, President Obasanjo did not send the Nigerian military to stop the dispute and prevent the private mining of gold in the Ife area. Instead, he encouraged them to resolve the dispute amicably and share the wealth generated from gold mining, even though gold is a national resource like oil and gas (Osinaike and Oyegunle, 2005, July 6).

After raising the issue of double standard, nobody in the oil region took up the matter and used it to put both political and legal pressure on the Federal Government to either nationalize all minerals or denationalize oil and gas.  The people in the region barely paid attention to the issue raised by Gen. Ejoor.  It was as if they were all sleeping and did not want to be disturbed.

Second, the senators and representatives of the oil region in the National Assembly (NA) either speak very little or remain voiceless about the dichotomy over the national control, management and regulation of mineral resources in the country.  These senators and representatives, perhaps, except for a few, like Sen. Seriake Dickson, might have tactically decided not to say anything about the fact that Nigeria has a double standard which affects their constituents negatively.  It seems that the regional legislators have accepted the view that the oil region is worth being sacrificed to sustain the country.  Otherwise, they would have spoken loudly to show their displeasure regarding the way their region is being unduly exploited. Perhaps, since their number in the national legislature is small and insufficient to create much political impact compared to the number of legislators from the non-oil-producing regions who always join forces against them, they strategically decided to go slow in pursuing the oil region’s agenda to avoid putting their political careers in jeopardy.

Third, the national commissioners/ministers of the oil region have not been able to influence national policy on oil and gas in any remarkable manner.  These personalities have known for decades that the oil and gas region is treated differently from regions with solid mineral deposits.  Yet, they did not and have not worked frantically to change national policy which penalizes the indigenes of the oil region while rewarding the indigenes of the regions where gold, tin, coal, columbite, lithium, coal, manganese, and other solid minerals are found.  Even in former President Muhammadu Buhari’s Administration, there were highly placed government officials from the oil region who served as ministers, directors and political advisers, yet they seemed uninterested in persuading the Federal Government to change policy and equalize the playing field for exploration of minerals in the country.

Fourth, the governors of the oil-producing region seemed unbothered by the fact that while governors in solid mineral-producing states can invite private mining companies to come to their states and carry out mining activities, they cannot do so in the oil region.  In other words, the governors of the states with solid minerals can create wealth and employment for their citizens through mining of minerals to boost their economies while the governors of the oil region cannot do so. It is puzzling why the governors in the oil region have not filed a class action suit to force the Federal Government to apply the same standard across the board in the management and regulation of liquid and solid minerals in the country.

In fact, when former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State stated that his state has more gold than South Africa and he was going to invite mining companies to explore gold (Tijani, 2016, April 6), a governor in the oil-producing region would have tested the constitutionality of the draconian military-era decrees that nationalize oil and gas ownership by announcing that he too would invite an oil company to explore oil and gas in his own state to test federal response.  Unfortunately, none of the governors paid attention to the implication that a governor in the same country can invite foreign mining companies into his state to engage in mineral exploration and a governor in an oil-producing state cannot do so.  The lack of response to Governor El-Rufai’s announcement to hire private mining companies means that the governors of the oil-producing states have accepted the status quo, which is that the Federl Government has a right to totally nationalize oil and gas, hence, decided not to challenge the constitutional authority of the national government.

Perhaps, the governors of the oil-producing states are not eager to challenge the total nationalization of oil and gas and the failure to nationalize solid minerals due to the nature of politics in the country.  It should be noted that in Nigeria, to become a governor requires an intense bargaining with the leadership of the political parties and other important political stakeholders in the country.  Thus, having gone through such a grueling process, the region’s governors probably feel exhausted and strategically decide not to add to their political burden by challenging national authority over the management and regulation of liquid minerals. Basically, they decided to let a sleeping dog lie without arousing it to create political obstacles or for them as they govern their respective states. Some Nigerians infer that the governors are not willing to stir the hornet’s net because some of them probably have financial skeletons in their cupboards.

Fifth, a baffling thing about the lack of proactive response from the oil region is the almost absent-mindedness of the civil society organizations in the region to the double standard that exists between the way the Federal Government totally nationalizes the oil region and the total lack of national enforcement in the management of solid mineral resources in the country.  It seems that the region’s civil society organizations are not bothered by the fact that the citizens of the region are not having a fair deal in the country

Additionally, the oil region’s civil society organizations are not very helpful in articulating the political and legal rights of the oil region. Why? Because they tend to fight and oppose each other. Hence, for every regional civil society organization that speaks for the rights of the indigenes of the region, there is another regional civil society organization that speaks for the interest of the national government. As a result, if one regional civil society organization calls for a protest, another regional civil society organization is most likely to condemn the proposed protest.  When that happens, the Federal Government always supports the group that opposes protest, thereby putting the other civil society group in a bad light. The lack of consensus among the region’s civil society organizations weakens the overall effect of their campaign to enhance the economic and political rights of the region. Due to the rivalry and divisiveness, it is very easy for the national government to sponsor civil society organizations that oppose those organizations that want change.  This divide and conquer tactics have been very effective, hence, the Federal Government pays little or no attention to the concerns of the oil region. The indigenes of the oil region have not been able to develop an effective strategy to counter or neutralize the divide and conquer tactics deployed by the national government against them.

Sixth, it is inferable that the citizens of the oil region are overwhelmed and tactically defeated to the point where they have given up any hope that Nigeria will reconsider its double standard and allow them to engage in private exploration or gain at least 50% share of the revenue accruing from oil and gas exploration.  It is assumable that after decades of protesting and decrying their unfair treatment without positive response from the Federal Government, many of them have given up and simply decide to exist, knowing full well that there is not much they can do to change the minds of Nigerian rulers. Moreover, many citizens in the oil region feel that their political leaders are not doing enough to put political pressure on the national government to pay attention to their unfortunate plight.

Seventh, the different national regulatory standards for solid and liquid minerals have existed since the enactment of the Petroleum Act, yet the sons and daughters of the oil region who have served as leaders of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and other oil-related agencies kept quiet and allowed their people to be exploited.

Eighth, the surprising fact about the anomalous situation is that a son of the oil region, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, actually served as the head of state of Nigeria for six years without crafting a bill to equalize the standard for regulating liquid and solid minerals or remove the ignominious acts that turn the citizens of the oil region into colonial subjects of Nigeria. 

Ninth, the most painful thing is that the leaders of the oil-producing region know that there is a different standard for liquid minerals and another one for solid minerals yet fail to do something about it.  They did not protest and take legal action to stop the undue nationalization of liquid minerals. They know that oil blocks are given to individuals who are mostly from the non-oil-producing regions yet did not scream loudly to stop the practice. In other words, the leaders of the oil region stood by while the Federal Government gave oil rights to a selected few to amass tremendous private wealth from public resources.

Instead of totally nationalizing solid minerals, the Federal Government registered about 600 private mining cooperatives. This means that private cooperatives operated by Nigerians and foreigners, especially the Chinese, can earn income officially from solid minerals (Onehi, 2020, February 19).   It should also be noted that 50 mining leases and 952 exploration licenses were awarded to foreign and local mining companies and individuals in 2007.  During the same time, the government encouraged private investment in solid minerals exploration by relaxing some of the regulatory rules (Reuters. 2007, August 9). In 2024, 10,000 people applied for mining licenses, but the Federal Government awarded 4,000 (Aina, 2024, May 24).  On the other hand, there is no relaxation of the regulatory rules in the liquid mineral sector. 

Tenth, the Niger Delta/South-Southand South-East regions were not consulted when Nigeria negotiated with Algeria to build the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.  President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration finalized the agreement with Algeria to build a $13bn gas pipeline in February 2025. Emmanuel Chilamphuma reported:

The Nigerian government has reached agreements with Algeria and Niger to advance the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) initiative, a key project aimed at boosting gas exports to Europe.

Representatives from the three nations concluded crucial agreements during a conference in Algiers, Algeria. These agreements, involving energy companies fromNigeria, Algeria, and Niger, cover essential aspects of the project, including:

Updated feasibility study to assess financial and technical viability.

Compensation framework ensuring equitable benefits for all stakeholders.

Non-disclosure agreement (NDA) to protect commercial interests (2025, February 17).

It is predictable that a few highly connected individuals from the non-oil-producing regions would be the primary beneficiaries of the $13bn deal, as it is always the case in Nigeria, as far as the oil region is treated as a colony of Nigeria.  It is necessary for the leaders of the oil and gas region to insist that no gas should be taken from their territory without their inclusion in the negotiations.

Again, the Niger Delta/South-South and South-East were totally absent when former President Muhammadu Buhari negotiated with European nations and Morocco to develop a gas pipeline from the oil and gas region to Europe through Morocco. The deal has been reinforced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Nadim Kawachi reported, “Morocco and Nigeria have agreed to create a joint venture to manage a long-planned $25 billion pipeline which will ship gas to Europe, a Moroccan minister has said (2025, April 24).  Imagine, a $25bn gas pipeline contract in which the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South and South East are not consulted or included in the package.  This means that some highly placed Nigerians from the non-oil-producing regions will benefit greatly from the deal, and the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South will end up with little or nothing just like the way they are treated in the distribution of the oil wealth.   The signing of this deal without effective consultation or involvement of the stakeholders in the oil region means that Nigerian officials have little or no regard for the indigenes.  Thus, the leaders of the oil and gas region should petition the Federal Government and declare emphatically that no gas should be taken from their region without their inclusion in the negotiations. If possible, send a petition to the Federal Government and copy the Moroccan government and the European Union. Then take legal action to address the demand.

Eleventh, Nigeria’s ruling elites and high-government officials who negotiated to explore and exploit the Niger Delt/South-South cannot be solely blamed because the political and legal leaders of the oil and gas region seem to be apathetic and wait for someone from Abuja to come and knock at their doors, instead of marshalling their political and legal forces to change the colonial relationship between the Federal Government and the oil-producing region.

Twelfth, although it is officially stipulated that all minerals are in the Exclusive List, meaning that the Federal Government has total control and regulation of all minerals, in practice, this is not the case.  Most of the oil and gas industry has been privatized.  Hence, it is individuals who own oil blocks.  The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has been tactically privatized and controlled by a powerful cartel which benefits most from the oil wealth.  There is also a plan on the ground to allegedly “sell oil equity to President Tinubu’s nephew Walle Tinubu’s Oando ally Chagoury’s firm” (Sahara Reporters, 2025, September 14). If the alleged plan materializes, the Tinubu family will become the most powerful oil baron in Nigeria. Despite the revelation, the stakeholders in the Niger Delta/South-South have not spoken forcefully to condemn such effort to privatize the oil industry in Nigeria. Thankfully, the Committee of Patriotic Forces (CPPF) made up of patriotic Nigerians vigorously opposed the idea (Sahara Reporters. 2025, September 10). Where are the leaders of the Niger Delta/South-South on this issue?  By now, they would have mobilized to demand resource control before the high and mighty totally take over their resources.

Thirteenth, already, due to the total disregard for the feelings of the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South and Nigerians in general, crude oil is now being used by the Federal Government as a collateral to borrow loans. Kevin Emmanue, an energy analyst, remarked:

At a time when the Nigerian government should be laying out a detailed plan to conduct house cleaning for NNPC Ltd or books, start book building for an IPO, the Nigerian government is amortising precious future crude oil earnings in a deal structure that robs the federating units of millions of barrels of crude oil in oil for swap transaction that sums up the point Jeffrey Frankel made in his working paper about the ‘Resource Curse Theory’ at Harvard University (Oladehinde, 2024, July 10).

Already, about three or four international loans have been borrowed in what is known as oil-for-cash-deals. These loans are being taken without consulting the indigenes of the oil region to let them know that their resources could become the properties of foreign countries if Nigeria fails to pay the loans.  While the Niger Delta/South-South is being burdened with unnecessary loans, solid minerals are not being used as collateral.  Here again, Nigeria treats the oil region as a colony that can easily be exploited. Meanwhile, most major infrastructural development projects are carried out in the non-oil-producing regions.  So why are the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South still sleeping, instead of waking up and fighting politically and legally for their natural rights.

Fourteenth, instead of working together as a team to put pressure on the Nigerian government to achieve resource control or at least get a 50/50 share of the revenue accruing from oil and gas exploration, the ethnic groups in the region tend to compete against each other and negotiate clandestinely with the national government to have advantage over other ethnic groups in the region.  Some ethnic groups are always eager to create the impression that they are more civilized and peaceful than others in the hope of attracting the attention of the Federal Government and gaining advantage over other ethnic groups. The youth groups sometimes compete unnecessarily over the right to gain surveillance contracts, to the point of almost engaging in physical confrontation. The civil society organizations in the region often take contradictory positions, thereby neutralizing the political effect of their demands. Most of the politicians do not want to offend those who wield national power in the country because of their desire to run for elective offices or retain their elective offices.  Only the Ogoni nation proactively pursued its goals and gained in the process.  As a result, the Ogonis were able to work with the United Nations Environmental Programs (UNEP) to recommend the cleaning of oil pollution in their territory.  It is also the Ogonis who succeeded in using the legal process to ban the exploration of oil in their territory for twenty years. During the heydays of the oil struggle, they were also able to gain political asylum status for their members in the US and other countries.

Fifteenth, due to the passivity of the indigenes of the oil region, the oil wealth is treated as a free for all manna from heaven.  Hence, a substantial proportion of the oil wealth is embezzled by high level public officials.  Thus, it is arguable that a sizable number of Nigeria’s millionaires and billionaires acquired their wealth through the embezzlement of public funds generated through oil and gas exploration. As far as the indigenes of the oil region fail to take appropriate political and legal action to gain control of the oil wealth, massive embezzlement of the oil wealth will continue. As a result of massive embezzlement of the oil wealth, the masses are not benefitting from the oil wealth.

Sixteenth, to avoid forfeiting total control of the oil and gas resources, the political and traditional leaders of the Niger Delta/South-South should come together and emphatically make it clear to Nigerian authorities that no oil or gas facility in the oil region should be sold without first consulting and negotiating with the host communities and the region’s leaders.  This is important because when Nigerian authorities permit major oil companies like Shell, Eni, Exxon/Mobil and Tota/Energies to sell their oil and gas facilities to domestic private companies without compelling them to clean the massive pollution they generated, it means that Nigeria’s political rulers do not care about the oil and gas region since they view it as a colony, rather than as part of Nigeria.

Due to the passivity of the leaders of the oil region and the willingness of Nigerian authorities to sacrifice the oil region, it is the United Nations that has spoken loudly to warn of the danger of allowing the major oil companies to sell their facilities without first cleaning the mess they created in the Niger Delta/South-South. Indeed, a UN panel wrote a letter to “Shell, ENI, Exxon/Mobil and Total Energies, warning the companies that they cannot sell off their assets and dodge their responsibilities to local communities” (RFI. 2025, September 9).

Conclusion

Indeed, the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South behave as if they are colonial subjects of Nigeria, hence, allow the country to openly exploit them for decades. As a result, wealth generated from the oil region is used mostly in developing and modernizing the infrastructure in other parts of the country while the region that lays the golden egg is often neglected by Nigeria’s ruling elites. Due to their passivity and an unwillingness to proactively demand their rights, Nigerian ruling elite and some highly connected individuals from the non-oil-producing regions now behave as the owners of the oil and gas resources while the indigenes of the oil region behave like beggars and are happy with having just 13% percent share of the revenue generated.  Meanwhile, solid minerals are treated like private resources in which anyone can mine with little or no consequence.

There is no doubt that Nigeria treats the oil region as a colony and the citizens of the region as colonial subjects. Under the pretext of nationalization, highly connected individuals are incrementally privatizing the wealth generated through tactical purchasing of oil facilities and the NNPCL, yet the indigenes of the oil region do little or nothing to reclaim their rights to the resources. Again, Nigeria treats the Niger Delta/South-South as a colony, hence, refused to regulate the behavior of the multinational oil companies by allowing them to flare gas and pollute the region.  Likewise, Nigeria treats the oil region as a financial plantation, hence allows the oil companies to sell their assets without compelling them to clean the pollution generated through gas flaring and oil exploration. Despite the failure to clean Ogoniland, the Federal Government wants oil exploration to resume, against the interest of Ogoni people. Nigeria’s recklessness and the indigenes powerlessness has compelled the United Nations to intervene by  warning about the danger of allowing the major oil companies to sell off their assets without cleaning the oil region.

The inhabitants of the oil region must express their appreciation to the United Nations for speaking on their behalf.  It is very sad that Nigerian authorities are only interested in the quantities of oil and gas being produced daily to boost their financial wherewithal and care very little about the massive pollution that has devastated the oil region. The Indigenes of the oil region must stop behaving like colonial subjects of Nigeria and demand their natural, political, economic and legal rights to own the resources in their region. Over sixty years of nationalization and exploitation should come to an end immediately because Nigeria has repeatedly demonstrated that it is irresponsible and incapable of managing the resources of the region to the benefit of all Nigerians.

References

African Manager. (2012, May 9). Nigeria licenses 7 firms to mine gold. https://en.africanmanager.com/nigeria-licences-7-firms-to-mine-gold/.

Aina, D. (2024, May 24). FG grants 4,000 investors mining licenses. Punch. https://punchng.com/fg-grants-4000-investors-mining-licences/#google_vignette.

Chilamphuma, E. (2025, February 17). Inside the US13bn Trans-Saharan gas pipeline. Further Africa. https://furtherafrica.com/2025/02/17/inside-the-us13b-trans-saharan-gas-pipeline/.

Council on Foreign Relations (2023, February 14). What is colonialism and how did it arise? https://education.cfr.org/learn/reading/what-colonialism-and-how-did-it-arise#:~:text=Colonialism%20is%20the%20practice%20of,vast%20majority%20of%20the%20world.

RFI. (2025, September 9). Oil giants accused of dodging Niger Delta clean-up as UN panel intervenes. https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20250905-oil-giants-accused-of-dodging-niger-delta-clean-up-as-un-panel-intervenes

 Hanumanthappa, D.G. (2023). An overview of David Easton and the political system. International Journal of Political Science. Volume 9, Issue 1, pp 14 -16. https://doi.org/10.20431/2454-9452.0901002.

Inyang, A. A. and Bassey, M. (2014, September). Imperial Treaties and the origins of British colonial rule in Southern Nigeria, 1860 – 1890. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences Volume 5(20).

Kawachi, N. (2025, April 24). Morocco and Nigeria agree terms for $2bn gas pipeline. Arabian Gulf Business Insights. https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2025/04/morocco-and-nigeria-firm-to-manage-gas-pipeline/.

Oladehinde, D. (2024, July 10). Rising appetite for cash loans traps Nigeria’s next generation. Business Day. https://businessday.ng/news/article/rising-appetite-for-oil-for-cash-loans-traps-nigerias-next-generation/.

Onehi, V. (2020, February 19). Federal Government harps on small miners formalization, registers 600 cooperatives. Daily Trust. https://dailytrust.com/fg-harps-on-small-miners-formalisation-registers-600-cooperatives/

Osinaike, G. & Oyegunle, J. [July 6, 2005] Maj. Gen. David Ejoor’s eye-opening statements. Vanguard. Posted on Ijawnation@yahoogroups.com. 7/6/2005. 

Reuters. (2007, August 9). Nigeria awards 1000 licenses to investors. https://www.reuters.com/article/legal/government/nigeria-awards-1000-mining-licences-to-investors-idUSL13261013/.

Sahara Reporters. (2025, September 10). Group rejects plan to sell Nigeria’s oil equity to Tinubu’s nephew wale Tinubu’s Oando, Ally Chagoury’s firm. https://saharareporters.com/2025/09/10/group-rejects-plan-sell-nigerias-oil-equity-president-tinubus-nephew-wale-tinubus-oando.

Tijani, M. (2016, April 6). El-Rufai: Kaduna has more gold than S’Africa. The Cable. https://www.thecable.ng/el-rufai-one-kaduna-lga-has-more-gold-than-safrica/.

Why a State of Origin is Preferable to a State of Residence Policy in Nigeria?

Why a State of Origin is Preferable to a State of Residence Policy in Nigeria?

By Priye S. Torulagha

A debate has been going on in Nigeria concerning whether the principle of State of origin or the principle of state of residence should be adopted constitutionally to legalize the status of Nigerians who live in states other than their states of origin (Olugbile, 2024, June 3).  The principle of the state of origin emphasizes the view that only the indigenous citizens of any given state should have the right to vote for state-related elective offices as well as enjoy the rights, benefits, and obligations emanating from the state.  This means that Nigerians who reside in states other than their states of origin should not have the right to vote for state-related elective offices as well as enjoy the benefits and obligations accruing to the indigenes of the state.

On the other hand, those who support the principle of the state of residence emphasize the view that Nigerians who reside in states other than their states of origin should have the right to vote for elective offices in the states they live or reside and be able to enjoy the benefits and obligations  accruing from the states they reside rather than the states they originate from.  This option implies that Nigerians should have the right to vote and be treated as the citizens of the states in which they reside, regardless of their original states of origin.  Basically, a Nigerian should be recognized as a citizen of the state where he or she resides or lives and not where the individual originally came from. Those who support this position often point to the United States where the state of residence allows Americans to live in any part of the country and enjoy the benefits and obligations of the states where they live, after completing the requirement for state residency.

However, in critically examining the Nigerian sociopolitical environment, it is argued here that the principle of the state of origin should be the standard constitutional framework for deciding who is a resident of any state.  In other words, the state of origin should be the standard for determining the status of Nigerians, at the present time in Nigerian history. Why the preference for the state of origin over the state of residence? There are many reasons for choosing the state of origin option.

First, Nigeria contains three of the most populous ethnic groups in Africa with each numbering more than 30 million people. At the same time, there are hundreds of small or minority ethnic groups in the country.  If a state of residence is allowed to take place, there is no doubt that members of the three largest ethnic groups are most likely to dominate the smaller ethnic group as they move around to take advantage of the policy of state of residence.  As a result, during elections, the settlers from the major ethnic groups are likely to overwhelm the populations of the indigenous groups to the extent that they will become the determinants of who becomes the governors, local government chairs, senators, and representatives of the states with small ethnic groups through massive voting.

Such a development will simply take Nigeria back to the era of regionalism where the major ethnic groups dominated the minority groups to the extent that they became mere vassals in each of the three regions. It should be recalled that as soon as the British established the colony of Nigeria, minority ethnic groups started to campaign vigorously for the creation of states to avoid being absorbed or gobbled up by the major ethnic groups. It was the desire to create a political space between them and the major ethnic nationalities that enabled them to demand the creation of states during the Henry Willinks Commission Hearings in London in 1957-1958.  Therefore, the creation of states by Gen. Yakubu Gowon on June 27, 1967, was intended to enable the minority groups to manage their own affairs without being dominated by the major ethnic groups.

Second, a state of residence policy will result in dragging the country down economically.  Why? Because Nigerians who hail from economically unproductive or depressed states with high unemployment levels are likely to flock to states with high economic productivity to compete with the indigenes for jobs and to overwhelm the social services of those states.   Thus, as more Nigerians move from economically unproductive and gloomy states to those with high economic growth, those states would be forced to bear the brunt of accommodating the economic refugees, thereby, putting undue pressure on their infrastructures and financial resources. Such pressure can result in economic downturn and push the states to the point of collapsing due to the population overflow.  Moreover, the economically vibrant states would be forced to solve problems generated by the unproductive states. The possibility of unrestrained migration as Nigerians rush to states that are doing well to claim residency should not be dismissed. After all, that is what is happening in the global system as people migrate in large numbers from the developing countries to the developed countries in search of greener pastures, thereby putting undue pressure on the economy and social welfare programs in those countries, especially in the West.

Third, it is quite possible that states which are led by incompetent or less imaginative governors might tactically encourage their citizens to migrate to states with robust economic growth, thereby putting on undue pressure on the productive states while the less productive states end up with less problems to solve as they encourage their citizens to migrate. In other words, what happens internationally where citizens from poorer or economically depressed economies are sometimes encouraged to move to the economically vibrant industrialized countries with the hope that they can gain employment and send money home through foreign transfers to boost the local economy will also take place in Nigeria.

Fourth, a state of residence policy will enable Nigerians with wealth to move to less economically developed states and use their financial power to dominate the political system by serving as godfathers and godmothers to the politicians.  In so doing, the settlers might eventually end up dominating the politics of such states to the extent that they become political kingmakers and queenmakers.  Such a development will force indigenous politicians of the less productive states to increasingly rely on the financial donations of the settler population to campaign and run for political offices.  Eventually, the wealthy Nigerian settlers might end up acting like colonial masters to the indigenous population and take over the states with the promise to assist them to generate their economies.

Fifth, those who support the principle of state of residency try to justify the system by referencing the U.S. state system where American citizens call wherever they live as their states of origin.  It is obvious that the American system is unworkable in Nigeria because the Nigerian sociopolitical environment is not compatible with that of the United States.  The reason is that the U.S is basically a settler state where most of the citizens originated from other parts of the world to settle in the U.S.  Like the U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand, most countries in the Caribbean and Latin America are settler states because the indigenous populations were replaced by settlers.  Therefore, in such countries, it is easier for an individual to move from one state or region to another to become a resident since majority of the citizens are settlers.  In Nigeria, people are irrevocably tied to the territories of their ethnicities because most Nigerians are indigenous groups.

Nigeria is a country where the ethnic nationalities existed for hundreds and thousands of years before the establishment of Nigeria as a colony.  Thus, each ethnic nationality has its own territorial space and operates like a state.  Hence, there is Hausaland, Igboland, Kanuriland, Yorubaland, Tivland, Ijawland, Ibibioland Edoland, Junkunland, Urhoboland, and so forth. The lands in Nigeria are owned by the ethnic groups and they have a right to make decisions about their territories without someone from another ethnic group dictating how they should live and use their lands. Therefore, the principle of the state of origin is more compatible with the African cultural tradition whereby each ethnic group has a territorial space to manage its existence.  A state of residence policy will seriously impede the African cultural tradition, thereby resulting in constant conflict as the indigenes fight against the settlers to maintain their ownership of their territorial lands. Land conflicts are already raging in Nigeria, especially in Northeast and Northcentral Nigeria.  Thus, people in the Middle Belt have paid dearly as settlers try to grab their lands through violent invasion.

Sixth, a state of residency works in Australia, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, and so forth, because these Western countries operate an individualistic social system where the individual is treated like a legal corporate entity as soon as the person reaches the age of adulthood (either 18 or 21 years old). As an adult, the individual is free to leave his or her family and take a path that is opposed to the family without facing any consequence as far as the law is not violated.  Thus, an individual can move from state or region or province to another and become a resident by cutting off previous connections.  In Nigeria, the prevailing social system is collectivism or communalism where the individual is irrevocably tied to the extended family, community through kinship and the ethnic group in perpetuity. Quite often, in Nigeria, family decisions are made collectively. Consequently, it is culturally impossible to adopt a system that glorifies individualism in an environment that is based on collectivism.

Seventh, Nigeria’s ethnic groups are characterized by two geographic modes of existence.  Some ethnic groups are migratory in nature like nomads, and their members prefer to settle and own land wherever they put root due to the nature of their economic activities.  On the other hand, other ethnic groups are stationary in nature, where their members prefer to establish their permanent residence in their territorial homelands without moving all over the place to settle.  Therefore, if a policy of state of residence were instituted through the constitution or statutory law, it is the ethnic groups that have migratory tendencies that will benefit the most.  The reason is that such a law will enable their members to spread all over the country and establish political and economic bases to eventually dominate the country.  On the other hand, the stationary ethnic groups will bear the brunt of surrendering their lands to members of migratory ethnic groups to the extent that conflict between the indigenes and settlers will erupt uncontrollably to destabilize Nigeria.  Why? Because the stationary ethnic groups might feel that the migratory groups are tactically using the policy of the state of residence to take over their lands.

Eighth, a state of residence policy will lead to a situation whereby the indigenous owners of the lands are displaced by the settler population from different parts of the country. There are many examples to cite to show the possibility of land displacement. The indigenous people of Lagos, that is, the Awori or Amori people are not happy that settlers from other parts of the country have almost literarily taken over their territory, thereby, turning their homeland into a No Man’s Land.  The overwhelming population of the settlers’ forces Lagos State government to spend considerably to cater to the needs of the settler population while the indigenes suffer from marginalization and neglect. Additionally, it is mostly settlers who have served as the governors of Lagos State since 1999 while the indigenes are treated like invisible and unimportant entities (Olumoro, 2025, January 17).

Similarly, the indigenous people of Abuja have lost control of most of their territory since they agreed to allow Abuja to be turned into Nigeria’s capital.  Today, only very rich settlers can afford to buy land in Abuja and the indigenes are treated like refugees. The settlers do not care about the plight of the Abuja people who cannot afford to buy land in Abuja because wealthy Nigerian settlers have turned the place into an exclusive enclave for wealthy settlers.

Ninth, Nigeria is not politically, sociologically, and legally ready to create an environment where the entire country becomes an open space for Nigerians to congregate and claim to be residents of the states they live while also having their own states of origin.  Since Nigeria has not metamorphosed to a stage where a state of residence can replace a state of origin, it would be a major strategic mistake for Nigerian authorities to pass legislation approving a state of residence as a public policy.  Why? Because Nigeria is a British creation and it is a mere geographical expression until Nigerians restructure the country and come up with a constitution that reflects the interest of the generality of Nigerians.

Otherwise, the policy of state of residence will be abused and used to exploit and marginalize hundreds of ethnic groups in the country because Nigerian institutions are too weak and easily exploited by the financially and politically powerful members of society.  It should be reminded that the policy of nationalization of mineral resources resulted in the exploitation of the oil wealth while the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South are marginalized and deprived.  Sadly, the oil wealth has been privatized by highly connected individuals in Nigeria who have accumulated substantial wealth from the resources that belongs to the people of the oil region. It is predictable that a policy of state of residence will be abused the way nationalization of mineral resources has been abused.

Tenth, a state of residence policy will encourage powerful individuals to relocate to states with enormous mineral resources and dominate the exploration of the minerals by claiming to be residents of the states.  This possibility is not far-fetched because it is widely reported that part of the violence, killings, and destruction of communities that are being perpetrated are sponsored by powerful individuals who form mining cartels to exploit gold and other solid minerals in Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara states (Daily Trust, 2024, January 20).  The same will happen if a state of residence is adopted.  Greedy and crooked Nigerians who want to get rich quickly will form human trafficking cartels to purposively encourage thousands of Nigerians to migrate to states with critical minerals and use such settlers to exploit the minerals at the disadvantage of the indigenous owners of the lands.  This is why people in Benue, Kaduna, Niger, Plateau, and Zamfara states and paying dearly with their lives as sponsored gun-totting gangs operate the mines.

Eleventh, if a state of origin is replaced by a state of residence, soon or later, settlers who are financially endowed are most likely to use their wealth to bribe police and military officers and judges to bend and interpret the law against indigenous members of the states whenever land issue arises between the original owners and settlers. This is a great possibility because in Nigeria today, there is a tendency by police and military personnel to take actions in favor of the high and mighty who bribe them to act in a certain way. This is why land grabbers today can grab land from their original owners with the assistance of corrupt police and military officers.  Thus, if a state of residence is legalized, settlers might end up owning the most productive lands in various states by bribing police and military officers and judges to enforce the law and rule in their favor. 

Twelfth, if the state of residence becomes the law of the land, in most states, the settlers might act like cattle herders who have been using violence to force out indigenous owners and occupy their lands through displacement.  They would be able to do so by forming interest groups to influence national and state governments to enact laws and make public policy decisions on land in their favor the way Fulani herdsmen have been able to influence the Nigerian government to look the other way and allow them to invade, destroy, and kill indigenous farmers with the security forces not intervening aggressively to stop them.  On the other hand, currently, if an indigenous Nigerian commits a crime against a herder, the police and the army react quickly to arrest the individual.  Thus, the law is tilted in favor of herders due to special political relationships, hence the police and the army are not eager to use full force against herders, bandits, and kidnappers. 

It is also the case that due to special relationships or connections, the Nigerian Police Force and the Nigerian Army rarely apprehend herders who carry prohibited guns.  On the other hand, security agencies generally do not hesitate to arrest any indigenous Nigerian who carries a gun.  Even judges have no hesitation in sentencing indigenous Nigerians who are arrested for carrying guns while they hesitate to sentence Fulani herdsmen to imprisonment for carrying guns. Right now, in Adamawa State, a farmer known as Sunday Jackson who fought and killed a herder named Ardo Bawuro who allegedly invaded his farm and attempted to kill him was sentenced to death and the Supreme Court agreed with the sentence by disregarding the fact that the farmer fought to protect his life from someone who attempted to kill him (Ogebe, 2025, March 7). It should also be noted that a kidnap kingpin named Hamisu Bala, otherwise known as “Wadume” who had been involved in several kidnapping cases and was later involved in a case in which an army officer allegedly ordered the killings of five police operatives of the Intelligence Response Team (IRT) when the accused escaped from the police team and gained protection of a unit of the 93 Battalion of the Nigerian Army, stationed in Takum, was only sentenced to seven years imprisonment for his heinous crimes.  The army captain who ordered the killings of the police officers was promoted by the Nigerian Army.  Moreover, Mr. Wadume was released from prison after serving less than three years because of the backdating of his date of arrest to 2019 (Abeku, 2024, April 8). Consequently, a state of residence will give an advantage to the settlers against the indigenes of the states whenever there is a dispute involving the two groups.

Thirteenth, a state of residence, if passed as a law, will violate the African cultural tradition in which every ethnic group exercises authority over its own territory. In other words, it is against the law of nature in Africa to prevent various nationalities in Nigeria from exercising authority over their lands as tradition demands.  A state of residence policy will destroy the ethnic groups in Nigeria by allowing those with money and political power to impose their will on nationalities that do not command political influence in the country.  Indeed, hundreds of ethnic groups would suffer under a state of residence policy because aggressive Nigerian settlers will spread all over the country and impose their will through capturing the states.

Fourteenth, the notion of a state of residence is too radical because Nigeria has not metamorphosed politically to a state of national cohesion where all Nigerians can shed their ethnicities and embrace one nationality.  Despite being over sixty years old, Nigeria has not congealed to form a united nationhood because the founding fathers competed during the struggle for independence along ethnic and regional lines to dominate the country rather than work together to unite the country. In other words, Nigeria continues to be a mere geographical expression because it was created by a foreign power and continues to operate disjointedly. Consequently, it would be too revolutionary for Nigerians to give away their ethnicities and embrace a country in which the ethnic coloration no longer matters when the politics of the country continues to be based on ethnicity, region, and religion.

Fifteenth, a state of residence policy will only breed more problems for Nigeria as settlers compete with the indigenes of the states for land ownership, the right to vote to determine who becomes the senator, governor, representative and the local government chair and to share the resources of the states. To avoid the internecine conflicts that might take place, it is necessary for the state of origin to remain so that resources of the states are used for the benefits of the indigenes of the states. A state of residence is not practicable at this time in the history of Nigeria because Nigerians are culturally and religiously attached to their ancestral homeland like other Africans.

Sixteenth, political parties and politicians will abuse a state of residence policy during elections by sponsoring Nigerians to move to states where critical elections are being held. The tactic is likely to involve paying some Nigerians to change their residency by moving to states where presidential, senatorial, representative, gubernatorial, and local government elections are being held and vote as residents to tilt election outcomes in favor of either a political party or a candidate.  Thus, about six months before a scheduled election takes place in any state, hired voters are likely to gradually move to the state to increase the population of voters who may vote for a particular political party or a candidate.  This possibility should not be dismissed because it has been allegedly reported variously that sometimes Nigeriens are Chadians are encouraged to come to Nigeria through payments to participate in elections and censuses. Similarly, it is a common practice among Nigerian political parties and candidates to pay voters at the election centers to vote for their parties and candidates (Salihu, 2023, February 1).

Seventeenth, A state of residence policy, if enacted into law, will encourage double residency by some Nigerians.  Basically, some Nigerians might exploit the system by claiming rights in both their states of residence and states of origin.  They are likely to exploit the system by claiming to be residents of the states they live in while secretly going to their states of origins to also claim benefits, thereby enjoying the rights to both states.  In a country where corruption is rampant, a citizen may register as a resident of the state he or she resides and then quietly go to his or her state of origin to bribe some officials to register him or her as a resident, thereby voting and enjoying the rights and obligations of both states at the same time.

Conclusion

It would be a grievous strategic political mistake for Nigeria to adopt a state of residence policy at the present time.  The reason is that the country is highly fragmented based on ethnicity, region, and religion, hence, the country continues to be a mere geographical expression created by Britain and Nigerians have not fully embraced it.  Moreover, it is against African cultural tradition to adopt a state of residence policy that denies the ethnic groups the right to exercise authority over their ancestral homelands. The policy could trigger massive migration by Nigerians from states with depressive economies to those with productive economies, thereby, literally bringing down the national economy when the productive states are overwhelmed by migrants from the unproductive states.

Due to the importance of communal landownership as dictated by the ancestral tradition, a state of residence policy is most likely to result in land conflicts all over the country as migratory ethnic groups compete with stationary ethnic groups to gain control of land, resources, and political power.  The struggle could lead to the disintegration of the country as some ethnic groups might opt to secede from the country rather than surrender their territories to migratory groups.  This implies that the state of residence idea is a threat to the national security of Nigeria.

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References

Abeku, T. (2024, April 8). FG frees notorious kidnapper, Wadume two years after sentence. The Guardian. https://guardian.ng/news/fg-frees-notorious-kidnapper-wadume-two-years-after-sentence/.

Daily Trust. (2024, January 20). Powerful Nigerians were behind banditry – Alake. https://dailytrust.com/powerful-nigerians-were-behind-banditry-alake/.

Ogebe, E. (2025, March 7). Supreme Court confirms death sentence on farmer who resisted Fulani herdsman. Attacker. News Express. Supreme Court confirms death sentence on farmer who resisted Fulani herdsman attacker | News Express Nigeria.

Olugbile, F. (2024, June 3). Between residence and origin: The national question in Nigeria. Business Day. https://businessday.ng/columnist/article/between-residence-and-origin-the-national-question-in-nigeria/.

Olumoro, A. (2025, January 17). Discrimination against Lagos indigenes: The leaders needed at this time. Vanguard. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/01/discrimination-against-lagos-indigenes-the-leaders-needed-at-this-time/.

Salihu, F. D. (2023, February 1). Vote buying in Nigerian politics. Daily Trust. https://dailytrust.com/vote-buying-in-nigerian-politics/

Why Nigeria Does Not Have a National Security System?

Why Nigeria Does Not Have a National Security System?

By Priye S. Torulagha

Following the war between Israel and Iran, it is necessary to ask whether Nigeria has an effective national security system to guarantee its sovereignty.  Based on the chaotic circumstances in the country, it is argued here that Nigeria does not have a functional national security system, even though it has several security agencies.  There is a big difference between having an array of security agencies and having a national security system.  To know the difference between the two, it is essential to define and explain what a national security system entails.

What is National Security?

National security can be defined as the totality of policies, measures, programs, and actions taken to ensure the security, wellbeing of the citizens, and territorial integrity of the state.

The policies, measures, programs, and actions include such things as good governance, the upholding of the rule of law, respect for democracy, equal treatment of all citizens regardless of ethnicity, tribe, region, sex, religion, and political affiliation, effective government institutions, effective management of the economy to ensure growth and employment for citizens, the provision of social welfare services and national health insurance for citizens, and an enabling environment for the germination of private sector economic activities to create wealth. It also includes an effective security system whereby the policy, goals, and outcomes for national security are spelt out clearly, a robust budgetary allocation for the development and modernization of the armed and police forces, intelligence agencies, immigration, customs, and equipping them with appropriate modern technological equipment, and taking good care of the needs of the security personnel

If the described national security requirements were applied to Nigeria’s national security, it is obvious that the country does not meet half of the conditions necessary to have an effective national security system.

Nigeria’s ruling elites, like African ruling elites generally, tend to assume that the mere provision of security forces (army, navy, air force, police, intelligence, customs, immigration and so forth) is sufficient to ensure an effective national security system.  They generally fail to realize that effective national security must include good government, the rule of law, respect for the constitutional rights of citizens, and an enabling environment for private businesses to thrive in order to grow the economy and generate wealth and employment.

What Does Nigeria Have for a National Security?

Nigeria has the Nigeria Army, Navy, Airforce, Immigration, Police, Customs, National Intelligence Agency, Department of State Service, Defense Intelligence Agency, Nigerian Security and Civil Defense, and so forth. They are not coordinated in a manner that integrates them with the national security system. Most often, they compete instead of cooperating to enhance the strategic interest of Nigeria. They spend more time protecting the members of the ruling elite against the general interests of the citizens who are angry over bad governance and massive corruption.  The Nigerian Police Force (NPF) spend more time providing services to the rich and the ruling elite while treating the citizens disdainfully.

Reasons Why Nigeria Does Not Have a National Security System?

As indicated in the definition above, national security goes beyond merely providing security forces and using them to keep the population in check while there is poor governance, poor economic management, massive corruption, lack of well-coordinated social welfare programs for citizens and no accessible national health care insurance program for citizens and more than 12 million out of school children roaming around without going to school. The list below is a compilation of the reasons why Nigerian does not have a functional national security system.

First, no sovereign state will allow its ruling elites, including the president, vice president, members of parliament, governors, ministers, and directors of government agencies to go overseas for medical services. Such individuals must and should receive medical services at home, regardless of the circumstances, to avoid being exposed to foreign intelligence recruitment and spying. Imagine the president of Nigeria receiving medical services overseas and the national security agency could not stop him from doing so.

Second, no sovereign state will allow its head of state to carry out official working visits outside the country in the name of a working stay. Nigerian ruling elites are not conscious of the fact that the international political system is deadly, and a head of state can easily be harmed staying constantly overseas. If Nigeria has an effective national security system, the president would have been advised to stop carrying out official work overseas if he believes in the sovereignty of Nigeria. Nigerian and other African rulers violate the national security of their countries by constantly going on working vacations overseas.

Third, if Nigeria has an effective national security system, it would have stopped Nigerian ruling elites from depositing their funds in oversea banks. When the ruling members of the state have their funds deposited in foreign banks, they compromise the national security of Nigeria because they subject themselves to be forced to serve as foreign agents to avoid their funds being seized. They can also be easily manipulated to engage in treasonable activities in the country to satisfy the strategic goals of foreign countries that want to destabilize Nigeria.

Fourth, it is a violation of the sovereignty of Nigeria to have a situation whereby all the members of the ruling elite send their children overseas for higher education. By so doing, Nigeria’s ruling elites are demarketing Nigerian education by implying that the country’s education is inferior, hence, they want their children to receive the best education in the world against other Nigerian children. Education is an instrument of socialization, so, when the ruling elites send their children overseas for education, the children are socialized largely to embrace the cultures of the places where they attend school. When they return home, they behave like foreigners rather than as Nigerians because they are largely grounded in the cultures of the places they attended school. Therefore, most high-level government officials, not only in Nigeria but throughout Black Africa are socialized to embrace foreign cultures.  They make decisions based on the cultural practices of the societies they attended school. It is bad for Nigeria and Africa.

Fifth, it costs tremendously to send a child to receive education in a foreign country. The salaries of Nigeria’s elected and appointed public officials are not enough for them to send their children to study in the UK or US or France or Germany or Spain. Therefore, it is inferable that many public officials embezzle massively in Nigeria to accumulate money to sponsor their children education overseas. Thus, sending children of the elites overseas is a threat to the national security of Nigeria because it contributes to massive pilfering of public funds.

Sixth, the fact that many current and former high-level public officials build huge mansions is a threat to the national security of Nigeria. Why? Because their official salaries cannot sustain the building of such massive structures.  Some of the houses cost about N400 million to about N1bn. Therefore, it is inferable that the building of massive mansions by public officials contributes to massive pilfering of public funds. The massive pilfering of public funds contributes to massive corruption which is a threat to the national security of Nigeria.

Seventh, the way the National Assembly operates is a threat to the national security of Nigeria. Why? Because the senators and representatives rarely conduct their official business in a professional manner. The Senate allows the president to submit names of candidates for ministerial positions without attaching their job portfolios.  This makes it difficult to ask specific questions to determine the qualifications and competencies of the candidates to perform their assignments. In addition, the National Assembly rarely conduct thorough investigations about the backgrounds of the candidates before approving the list submitted by the president. The failure to investigate thoroughly before approving the candidates contributes to incompetence and bad governance in Nigeria.  Incompetence and poor governance result in instability which is a threat to national security. It is a threat to the national security of Nigeria for the president to send the list of ministerial candidates without assigning job portfolios so that the National Assembly can thoroughly review their backgrounds. It is necessary for each ministerial candidate to answer specific questions that relate to his or her job assignment.

Similarly, both at the national and state levels, the legislature always fails to scrutinize items listed in the budgets before passing them. The nonchalant way national and state budgets are passed by the legislators contribute to massive corruption in the country.

Eighth, due to the ineffective national security system, presidential candidates are not sufficiently subjected to background investigation. Under a functional national security system, presidential candidates would effectively be vetted to ensure that they do not suffer from incapacitating diseases or illnesses that can interfere with their official functions if elected as a president; they have no criminal background; they have no scandalous incidents that could compromise them, and  they have never been involved in embezzlement of public funds. It should be recalled that Nigeria faced two painful political situations in the past when President Umaru Yar’Adua and President Muhammadu Buhari got seriously sick and were flown overseas without transferring power to their vice presidents. Moreover, they spent months in foreign medical facilities as if Nigeria is not a sovereign state. The Yar’Adua case destabilized the country until Nigerians had to put pressure on the National Assembly to swear in the vice president. Additionally, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode had written that seven of Nigeria’s former heads of state were alleged foreign agents. He also said that most of the miliary coups and political killings in Nigeria involved foreign intelligence operations. (Fani-Kayode, https://dailypost.ng/2022/04/24/7-nigerian-leaders-worked-for-uk-us-fani-kayode-lists-secrets/ ). Thus, it is necessary to vet presidential candidates exhaustively to avoid foreign agents serving as Nigeria’s presidents. No sovereign state can grow if its leaders are seriously compromised.

Ninth, the members of the National Assembly behave as if they are members of the Executive Branch, instead of serving as the protectors of the public purse and watching over the Executive Branch as part of their oversight functions. The Legislative Branch is constitutionally supposed to be a separate branch from the Executive Branch.  Unfortunately, the members of the National Assembly increasingly act as if they are working for the president instead of serving the citizens as their representatives. Likewise, state legislators also behave like members of the state’s Executive Branch and transfer the budgetary functions to the governors while they wait eagerly to approve whatever the governors submit.. This behavior contributes to corruption and a threat to national security by contravening the separation of powers principle.

Tenth, if Nigeria has a functional national security system, the Nigerian judiciary, which is the Judicial Branch of government would not have been captured by the Executive Branch and the politicians. Due to the failure of the national security system to intervene to stop corruption and the capturing of the third branch of government, an increasing number of judges have become financial hired hands who do the biddings of those who spend enormously to influence justice in Nigeria. In addition, family judicial dynasties are being built as some judges recruit their spouses and children to occupy the bench against the general interest of Nigerians.

Eleventh, if there is a national security system in Nigeria, the NSA would have put pressure on the national government to increase the size of the Nigerian military and the police forces by recruiting more Nigerians into the services. With a population of over 230 million people, the Nigeria Army needs at least 450,000 personnel.  The Nigeria Airforce needs at least 30,000 personnel with technologically driven platforms and assorted military aircrafts that can perform all kinds of aerial operations. The Nigeria Navy needs at least 100 warships with a submarine fleet. With a population of over 230 million people, Nigeria needs a police force of at least 800,000 to 900,000 police officers. Similarly, the condition of service for both armed and police forces supposed to be generous with habitable military and police barracks, excellent pay and health care services, and robust retirement programs to attract qualified Nigerians to join the security services. It is the case that soldiers and police officers are poorly paid and treated as if they have no rights.

Twelfth, the NSA would have put tremendous pressure on the Nigerian state to engage in active research and development (R & D) programs to produce high tech weaponry for the Nigerian military and police forces. Time has passed for a country like Nigeria to always beg for other countries to sell weapons and equipment to its armed and police forces. By now, Nigeria supposed to have produced its own satellites and drones capable of being utilized in different sectors of the Nigerian society as part of an industrialization scheme. It is doubtful whether the current Nigerian military can fight a major war since it relies mostly on imported weaponry. At this state of Nigeria’s development, the Nigerian armed forces would have established active research and development programs with the universities to develop technological platforms for various weapon systems. It is sad to have a military force with so many generals, admirals and marshals with little or no technological support to enhance national security.

Thirteenth, if Nigeria has an effective national security program, at this stage of the country’s growth, Nigeria would have stopped sending its military, police, and intelligence officers overseas for training. Why? The more officers are sent overseas for training, the more some of them are likely to be recruited by the intelligence services of the countries they do training. Similarly, the more military, police, and intelligence officers are sent overseas, the more some of them are likely to be recruited to destabilize the country. It is necessary for Nigeria to develop its own system of military, police and intelligence training and practices at all levels of professionalism and use them as a strategy to enhance national security.  It is time to leave the colonial era behind and rely on self-development. Nigeria cannot claim to be a sovereign state and keeps sending security officers overseas for training as if it is still a colony. Nigeria, please grow up and act like a sovereign state.

Fourteenth, if Nigeria has an effective national security system, herdsmen attacks, banditry, and kidnappings would have been stopped or drastically reduced. Right now, Nigeria is incapable of ensuring the security of its citizens and the territorial integrity of its sovereignty because it is unable to deal decisively with violent and criminal gangs that are terrorizing the entire country. Due to the failure of the Nigerian state to protect its citizens, it is doubtful if Nigeria can be regarded as a sovereign state. Imagine Nigeria’s armed forces with so many generals, admirals, and marshals and they cannot even defeat Boko Haram and herdsmen. It is a joke!  This is why most non-Africans do not take African leaders seriously.

Fifteenth, if Nigeria has an effective national security system, the president would have been compelled to summon political will or courage to order the full mobilization of the military, police, and intelligence services to stop Boko Haram, herdsmen attacks, banditry, and kidnappings of Nigerians. Thousands of Nigerians have been killed and over 2 million Nigerians have been forced to live in Internally Displaced Persons camps (IDPs) inside and outside Nigeria while the violent invaders take over indigenous lands and the military does nothing. Imagine a situation where herdsmen killed 200 Nigerians in Yelewata, Guma Local Government Area of Benue State and the police and military forces are not fully mobilized to put an end to the bloodbath. Currently, captured Boko Haram fighters are treated much better than the victims of Boko Haram attacks who lived in squalid Internally Displaced Peoples Camps (IDP) camps.

Indeed, the ruling elites, especially the president, security chiefs, and governors should have been advised about the need to ensure the security and protection of lives and communities from organized violence that has killed over 60,000 Nigerians. They could be held liable for war crimes and crimes against humanity for failing to mobilize security forces to stop the unnecessary killings. Why? Because by failing to deploy the security forces fully, they are basically abetting the genocidal killings of innocent Nigerians. Nigerian communities in Benue, Bornu, Delta, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Niger, Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Plateau, Taraba, and Zamfara that have been violently attacked with thousands of people killed can file a case in the International Criminal Court (ICC) to charge the president, security chiefs, and governors for failing to carry out their duty and obligation to ensure the security of lives and the protection of the territorial integrity of Nigeria, thereby encouraging the crimes against humanity. It is unacceptable for military chiefs to say that their hands are tied since there is no political will on the part of the ruling political elite to order full mobilization of the security forces to stop the mayhem. By failing to act, they are abetting the killings.

Sixteenth, if security chiefs keep maintaining the view that they cannot stop the violent mayhem that has ravaged the country and caused fear, hardship and increasing poverty, then the DSS, Army, Navy and the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) should stop arresting Nigerians who bear arms to defend themselves.  Why? Because the security chiefs cannot maintain the position that they have no political order to stop violent herdsmen, bandits, and kidnappers from attacking and killing Nigerians and then turn around to prevent Nigerians from arming and protecting themselves from unprovoked attacks. Failure to stop the mayhem and preventing Nigerians from defending themselves amounts to abetting the violent killings of Nigerians. Again, imagine the recent killings of 200 or more people in Yelewata in Guma Local Government Area of Benue State as well as those in Enugu State without any seriousness on the part of the national and state governments to stop the madness. A state that is incapable of protecting its citizens and territorial integrity is not a sovereign state.

Seventeenth, if Nigeria has an effective national security system, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would have declared a state of emergency in Adamawa, Benue, Bornu, Kaduna, Niger, Ondo, Plateau, Taraba, and Zamfara states and allow the security forces to clamp down on the killers and put a stop to the gruesome mayhem that is going on in the country as if there is no government to tackle the insecurity problem.   On the other hand, the president would not have declared a state of emergency in Rivers State.  Imagine the critical situation in Benue State where thousands of Nigerians have been killed and the national security system is not activated to put a stop to the killings compared to a mere disagreement between a political godfather and godson in Rivers State resulting in the declaration of a state of emergency by the president. The eagerness in declaring a state of emergency in Rivers State and the unwillingness to declare a state of emergency in states where thousands of Nigerians have been killed and communities ravaged showed clearly that the emergency declaration in Rivers State is a political tactic to capture the state in preparation for 2027. Thus, the democratic rights of Rivers State indigenes have been sacrificed while the human rights of the peoples of Central Nigeria are not protected.

Eighteenth, if Nigeria has a functional national security system, it would not have allowed certain individuals to become so powerful to the extent that they are even more powerful than the state. These invisible individuals who are otherwise referred to as cabals, command so much authority and influence.  They have devastated Nigeria through destructive habits. They are responsible for the massive corruption, the twisting and weakening of the law, the sponsoring of political thugs, violent herdsmen, bandits, and kidnappers, as well as exploiting the oil wealth and solid minerals. Sovereignty connotes the ability of the state to have supreme authority over its territory. Therefore, Nigeria cannot be a sovereign state if certain individuals are more powerful than the state to the extent that even the Nigerian military, police force, intelligence services, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), and other security agencies are afraid of going after them.

Nineteenth, it is a threat to the national security of Nigeria for a country of about 230 million people to exist without effective social welfare programs to assist citizens in times of need. There is no national health care insurance program which citizens can utilize to receive medical services in a subsidized manner. There is no functional food program that citizens can fall upon in times of economic hardship. There is no functional housing program especially for women and children.  The so-called palliatives are mere gimmicks deployed by the ruling elites to cart away money and food that are supposed to go to the needy in society. The worst part of the failure to provide a functional social welfare system is that Nigeria finds it very difficult to establish a reliable computerized data bank of the citizens so that they can access the system to get what they want. The pension system in Nigeria is a disaster for many pensioners.  Sometimes, retirees wait for five to 15 years to get their retirement benefits and nobody in government seems to care.

Twentieth, if Nigeria has a functional national security system, the NSA would have impressed upon the government the importance of maintaining an effective public educational system.  This is to ensure that all Nigerian children are able to attend school and become educated. Unfortunately, the public educational system is being destroyed through the neglect of primary and secondary schools while private schools are tactically  encouraged. It is a fact that private primary and secondary schools and universities are very expensive to the extent that only the children of the rich can access them. Indeed, by now, both public primary and secondary education supposed to have been free for all Nigerian children.

Since the government is not taking proactive measures to ensure that public schools are well funded and maintained to ensure that all children attend school, it is not surprising that about 15 million children are out of school. This means that they will become uneducated adults and could cause tremendous social upheaval in the future to destabilize the country.  Thus, it is necessary to send all children to school to ensure the national security of the country.

Twenty-first, if Nigeria has an effective national security system, the country would have stopped having electricity problems.  It is amazing that for over fifty years, Nigeria has been incapable of providing a reliable electrical energy system in the country. Nigerian leaders have spent billions of dollars, yet there is nothing to show for the massive funds spent on energy.  It is probable that throughout West Africa, Nigeria has the most unreliable electrical energy system.  A country needs a steady supply of electrical energy to industrialize and build the economy. Thus, energy is a matter of national security.

Twenty-second, if there is an effective national security system, corruption would have been contained or tamed or drastically reduced.  Why? Because corruption, especially the unrestrained embezzlement of public funds by elected and appointed public officials, is the greatest threat to national security. The pathological desire to pilfer public funds has short-changed the country and citizens to the extent that Nigeria has the largest number of poor people in the world. In Nigeria, the public sector is the fastest means to accumulate personal wealth through the pilfering of public funds.  Hence, it is not surprising that a large proportion of Nigerian millionaires and billionaires accumulated their wealth through public service. It is the desire to generate some wealth from the government that has compelled many politicians from opposition political parties to jump ship and join the APC which is the ruling party. By jumping ship, they destroy the democratic political system and allow the institutionalization of a one-party political system. A one-party system degenerates into authoritarianism.  Thus, it is a violation of the national security of Nigeria for members of opposition political parties to jump ship and encourage a one-party system in Nigeria. Most of the politicians who jumped ship do not believe in democracy but are only interested in perpetuating self-interest.

Enhancing Nigeria’s National Security System

The purpose of this section is to suggest ways of turning a haphazard and highly politicized security system into a functional national security system where national and international decisions are made based on strategic thinking to enhance the national security of Nigeria.

First, it is necessary to have a well spelt out national security policy that is the foundation for ensuring the sovereignty of Nigeria. The president, cabinet ministers, directors of government agencies, governors, the leadership of the security forces, and members of the National Assembly must be informed, educated and constantly reminded that the National Security Policy must be adhered to in making certain decisions. At the present time, it is evidently clear that the ruling elites, including the president, vice president, members of the National Assembly, governors and so forth, have no clue about the importance of reinforcing the national security of Nigeria.

Second, the National Security Adviser (NSA) should be at the top of the high-level government officials who should meet with the president regularly. He or she should have a direct access to the president to keep him or her abreast of what is going in the country and around the world. The president must pay attention to the NSA and not prevent him or her from meeting with him on regular basis.

Third, to empower the National Security Adviser, the title should be changed to the Director of National Security (DNS). 

Fourth,  the national security team should be made up of the Director of National Security, Chief of Defense Staff, Inspector General of Police, heads of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Customs, Immigration, Corrections, Nigerian Security and Civil Defense, DSS, National Intelligence Agency,  Defense Intelligence Agency, the president’s financial and economic management team, the foreign minister, the  EFCC and ICPC, at least three specialists in international politics and strategic thinking, the Chairs of the intelligence Committees of the House and Senate of the National Assembly, Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, and the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs. The DNS should be the coordinator of the team. So far in Nigeria, not much respect is accorded to the NSA by the heads of other government ministries and agencies.

The National Security Council should be able to take action that is necessary to ensure the territorial integrity of the Nigerian state. It should be able to advise the president not to seek medical treatment overseas. It should be able to issue recommendations that result in clamping down on the so-called powerful cabals that have contributed to bad governance and corruption. The National Security Council should be able to decide whether foreign loans are necessary or not and where to obtain them.

Fifth, there is a need to establish a National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), if none is available at the present time. This board should be made of patriotic and dedicated former high-level government officials, retired senior military, police and DSS officers, former professional diplomats, and individuals with established professional backgrounds in intelligence, technology, economics, private business, medicine, science, and scholars from the universities. This board should meet probably once every three months to review the national security situation and issue advisory to the Director of National Security or NSA for onward transmission to the president and the National Assembly about the national security situation in the country. The National Security Advisory Board should issue reports and forward the reports to the National Security Council.  It should be able to offer recommendations for dealing with bilateral and multilateral treaties and protocols. The National Security Advisory Board should be chaired by an experienced professional national security and foreign policy expert like Prof. Akinwande Bola Akinyemi who was the former foreign minister of Nigeria and the Director of Nigerian Institute of International Affairs and the current Chairman of the National Think Tank.

It is strongly believed here that a functional national security system should be the catalyst for transforming Nigeria from being a mere country into becoming a united, vibrant, and advanced scientific and technologically driven economic entity that is a major impactful player in the global geopolitical system.

It is time to Denationalize the Ownership and Management of Oil and Gas in Nigeria if Solid Minerals are not Nationalized

Priye S. Torulagha

After more than fifty years of the nationalization of the ownership and management of liquid minerals, particularly oil and gas, it is time to change the policy and revert to the principle of derivation in order to stop the mismanagement, lack of accountability, lack of transparency, massive exploitation and embezzlement of the oil wealth. Nationalization of mineral resources has been an abject failure since oil and gas are totally nationalized while solid minerals are not subjected to the same stringent standard of nationalization in violation of the decrees, acts and laws that Nigerian authorities have passed. 

It should be recalled that during the First Republic (1960 -1966), the principle of derivation was the principal means of owning, controlling, and managing of mineral resources in the country.  This meant that each region had the constitutional authority to explore and manage its resources and share a percentage of the revenue generated with the national government. As a result, the regions were able to utilize the wealth generated from their natural resources for the infrastructural and economic development of their regions.

Perhaps, as an instrument of war to deprive Biafran authorities from gaining financially from the oil wealth as well to secure the oil wealth for the prosecution of the Nigerian civil war, the military regime of Gen. Yakubu Gowon initiated a policy change and nationalized the ownership and management of mineral resources, particularly oil and gas in the country.  Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo and subsequent military regimes and civilian administrations followed suit with the policy of nationalization.  As a result, various regimes passed the following decrees and or acts: (1) The Oil in Navigable Waters Act of 1968; (2) The Petroleum Act of 1969; (3) The Oil Pipelines Act of 1969; (4) The Associated Gas Reinjection Act of 1969; (5)The Offshore Oil Revenue Decree of 1971; (6) The Petroleum Production and Distribution Act of 1975; (7) The establishment of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation on April 1, 1977 to  control, regulate and manage petroleum and gas production in Nigeria; (8) The Exclusive Economic Zone Act of 1978; and (9) The Land Use Act of 1978.

 Most of these decrees were passed during the military regimes of Gen. Yakubu Gowon and Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo.

The inhabitants of the Niger Delta/South-South and some sections of the Southeast zones lost ownership, control, and management of oil and gas in their zones as the Federal Government assumed total ownership, control, and management of the two major resources.

The inhabitants of the oil region tolerated the change as far as the intention was to ensure the effective and efficient management of the resources as well as support the even development and modernization of the infrastructure and the economy across the board without discrimination or favoritism.

Perhaps, to ensure even-handedness and equity, the military under the caretaker regime of Lt. Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar enacted the 1999 Constitution which nationalized all minerals in the country. The constitution vested the ownership and control of Nigeria’s mineral resources to the Federal Government.  Additionally, the Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act of 2007 was enacted to replace the Minerals and Mining Act #34 of 1999.  It vested the ownership and control of solid minerals to the Federal Government.  With this act, Nigeria completely nationalized the ownership and control of all minerals in the country.   One of the conditions of this act is that “No person shall search for or exploit mineral resources in Nigeria or divert or exploit or impound water for the purpose of mining except as provided in this act” (https://www.lawnigeria.com/LFN/N/Nigerian-Minerals-and-Mining-Act.php).

Based on the principle of nationalization, all minerals in the country are supposed to be owned, controlled, and managed exclusively by the Federal Government of Nigeria with no exception. However, the operationalization or functionalization of total national ownership by the Federal Government has been problematic, resulting in massive exploitation, marginalization, deprivation and discrimination against the nationalities in the oil region. Why?

 Because, while petroleum and gas are totally nationalized to the extent of rendering the rightful owners of the resources helpless and poor, solid minerals are not.  As a result, individuals and cooperatives have been allowed by the Federal Government to mine solid minerals for decades without the authorities taking any decisive action to stop them.  Evidently, individuals are allowed to mine solid minerals and earn income to take care of their families and enrich themselves in Adamawa,  Bauchi, Benue, Bornu, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nssarawa,  Niger, Oyo, Osun, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara states (Isenyo, 2016, April 7)  while the citizens in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo, and Rivers State cannot explore and refine oil to earn income to take care of their families and enrich themselves. 

As part of the double standard in nationalizing mineral ownership in Nigeria, not until March 2024 did the Federal Government announced a plan to inaugurate mining marshals to combat illegal mining of solid minerals in Nigeria (Idoko, 2024, March 2). On the other hand, the Federal Government deployed the Nigerian military since 2002 to secure the oil region for oil exploration. Thus, the Niger Delta/South-South is under military occupation while the solid minerals regions are not under military occupation. Even in 2025, the mining marshal’s plan has not been activated to private mining of solid minerals. 

Likewise, the wealth generated through oil and gas exploration from the Niger Delta/South-South has been primarily responsible for the infrastructural enhancement of Lagos, the development of Abuja from the ground up, the construction of major roads and railway lines in other parts of the country, the financial pipeline for maintaining and sustaining the national government, 36 states, and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja for about five decades now.

While Nigerians are told that all minerals belong to the Federal Government, yet most oil blocks are privatized and owned by highly connected individuals from the non-oil-producing regions while the owners of the oil wealth are left to scramble to pick the crumbs (Eguzozie, 2021, August 2). This is why tension is always high in the oil region as the ethnic groups compete for the crumbs left behind by the looters who feast insatiably on the oil wealth. Even the Nigerian masses do not benefit from the oil wealth, contrary to the expectation that nationalization would result in an effective management of the oil wealth to the benefit of the entire country.

In addition, most of the private wealth accumulated by individuals in Nigeria is generated from the oil and gas resources from the Niger Delta/South-South.  They do so through the ownership of oil blocks, contracts, oil blending refineries, fuel imports, the domination of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) and oil and gas companies.  The sad part of the oil and gas business in Nigeria is that most of these privileged Nigerians who have commandeered the oil industry are from the non-oil-producing regions while most Nigerians from the oil-producing region wallow in extreme poverty, neglect, and dehumanization.

Nigerians are told that oil and gas are national resources, yet a substantial part of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) has been privatized to the advantage of the few and the disadvantage of most Nigerians.  The NNPCL, controlled by an invisible cabal, seems more powerful than the Federal Government to the extent that it does what it wants without accountability and transparency in its operations. 

While the Niger Delta/South-South lays the golden egg that maintains and sustains Nigeria, the region is utterly neglected in national infrastructural development and modernization projects.  Hence, the East-West Road, the major transportation artery in the oil region, has been neglected by the Federal Government for decades.  As a result, it is a death trap for the citizens of the oil region, especially during the rainy season when some sections of the road become impassable.  While the oil region is neglected in infrastructural development, Nigeria spends the oil wealth massively for the infrastructural development of other regions and expects the citizens in the oil region to keep quiet, suffer, and smile in silence.

All the major government agencies responsible for controlling, regulating, and managing oil and gas resources in Nigeria are dominated by Nigerians from the non-oil-producing regions.  Most of the high-level positions in these agencies and corporations are held by Nigerians from the non-oil-producing regions.  As a result, only a few individuals from the oil region gain employment in the oil industry even though the industry is located in their region.

All the major oil companies have their headquarters outside the oil region.  This means that they pay taxes for their operations elsewhere and not to the oil-producing states.

Thus, the Niger Delta/South-South is treated like a colony of Nigeria and not as part of Nigeria.  Nigeria’s ruling elites exploit the resources of the region for the accumulation of their private wealth, the infrastructural development and modernization of their regions, and creating businesses in their regions to generate wealth while utterly neglecting the oil region.

Since 1957 when commercially viable oil exploration began in Oloibiri in Bayelsa State and continuing up to the present day, Nigeria has never embarked on any measurable environmental cleaning operation of the massive oil pollution and gas flaring that have devastated the Niger Delta/South-South zone.  Pollution has destroyed farmland and fishing waters, thereby devastating the traditional economic activities of the peoples of the oil region.

Additionally, the massive environmental pollution has led to the emergence of devastating medical conditions that afflict people with incurable diseases.  The Federal Government seems unconcerned about the special health care needs of the inhabitants of the oil region as they bear the brunt of toxic chemicals generated by oil and gas operations.  Due to gross negligence and corruption, even the Ogoni clean up that the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) recommended is done haphazardly and disinterestedly.  The only thing national decision makers seem to care about is increasing the quantity of oil production in order to increase the wealth generated to offset foreign debts incurred through reckless borrowing and spending.

The Federal Government militarily occupies the Niger Niger/South-South like a colonial power by stationing the Joint Task Force Operation Restore Hope (JTF) to prevent individuals from engaging in the refining of oil while the Federal Government is not interested in creating a JTF to prevent individuals from illegal mining of solid minerals.

Indeed, the reckless exploitation of oil and gas in the oil region is an existential threat to the survival of the peoples of the Niger Delta/South-South. Therefore,   Federal Government should take the following steps to remedy the situation:

  1.  Nationalize solid minerals the way oil and gas are nationalized.
  2. Establish the Nigerian National Solid Minerals Corporation (NNSMC) to carry out effective ownership, control, and management of solid minerals the way oil and gas are owned, controlled, and managed through the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL).
  3. The Board of Directors of the NNSMCL must come from the six zones of the country.
  4. Establish a military Joint Task Force (JTF) to stop illegal mining of solid minerals the way illegal refiners are prevented from doing so in the Niger Delta/South-South.
  5. Revenue generated from the mining of solid minerals must go directly into the Federation Account.
  6. The funds must be shared the way the oil wealth is shared through the Federation Account to the Federal Government, states, local governments and the Federal Capital Territory.
  7. The Federal Government must set up a proactive pollution cleaning program to clean the oil region.

If these steps are not taken to nationalize solid minerals, then Nigeria must denationalize petroleum and gas.  This means that the citizens of the oil region should be able to explore and refine petroleum the way Nigerians mine gold and other solid minerals. In other words, failure to operationalize the nationalization of solid minerals should result in automatic denationalization of oil and gas in the Niger Delta//South-South.

This further means that if the Federal Government continues to look the other way and allow individuals and cooperatives to mine solid minerals, then, the indigenes of the oil region should be allowed to explore and refine petroleum and gas.

Indeed, Nigeria must stop the double standard in controlling, regulating and managing mineral resources in the country.  The double standard creates the impression that the oil region is a colony because the inhabitants of the region are not power-wielding groups in Nigeria, hence deserved to be exploited and deprived of their natural rights to make use of resources in their territory while solid minerals are mostly found in the regions of the power-wielding groups, hence, the citizens of those regions can mine and create individual and family wealth from solid minerals exploration.

References

Eguzozie, B. (2021, August 2). Nigeria’s Oil Block ownership: A dubious national oil industry management. Business A.M. https://www.businessamlive.com/nigerias-oil-block-ownership-a-dubious-national-oil-industry-management/#:~:text=An%20oil%20block%20or%20oil,to%20be%20extracte.

Idoko, C. (2024, March 2). FG inaugurates mining marshals to combat illegal mining.  Nigerian Tribune. https://tribuneonlineng.com/fg-inaugurates-mining-marshals-to-combat-illegal-mining/#:~:text=Mining%20Marshals%2C%20a%20unit%20cr.

Isenyo, G. ( 2016, April 7). Kaduna gold deposit bigger than S’Africa’s reserves. Punch. https://punchng.com/kaduna-gold-deposit-bigger-than-safricas-reserves/.

Minerals: Is there a complacency? Business Day. The Silence of the Ministry of Solid Minerals; Is there a Complacency? – Businessday NG.

Nigeria Minerals and Mining Act, 2007. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://msmd.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Nigerian-Minerals-Mining-Act-2007.pdf; (https://www.lawnigeria.com/LFN/N/Nigerian-Minerals-and-Mining-Act.php.

Why Nigeria Should Not Return to a Regional Form of Government?

Priye S. Torulagha

Social media is awashed with reports that a bill intending to return Nigeria back to a regional form of government, as was the case before the declaration of states on May 27, 1967, is in circulation. The bill, written by Dr. Akin Fapohunda, is titled “A Bill for an Act to Substitute the Annexture to Decree 24 of 1999 with a New Governance Model for the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”  Initially, it was reported that the bill was submitted to the House of Representatives of the National Assembly for legislative review.  However, the National Assembly denied being in possession of the bill (Oyedokun, 2024, June 15).  A news report later indicated that the author would forward the bill to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu with the hope that he will submit it to the National Assembly for legislative consideration (Nyiekaa, 2024, June 13).  

The bill proposes the division of Nigerian into eight regions.  The regions are: (1) Southern Region, (2) Southeastern Region, (3) Western Region, (4) Mid-Western Region, (5) Eastern Middle Belt Region, (6) Western Middle Belt Region, (7) Northeastern Region, and (8) the Northwestern Region.

However, in responding to the proposed bill, it is argued here that a regional form of government will not solve the thorny issues that bedecked the country. Instead, it is more likely to create additional political problems that can lead to the disintegration of the country. The main reason for the opposition to the bill is that the regional government of the 1960s had many problems, including tribalism and regionalism which contributed to the military coup of January 15, 1966, that eventually resulted in the militarization and unitarization of the country. Thus, the purpose of this article is to explain why it is not strategically advantageous for the national security, democracy, political rights, and the growth of this country to go back to the regional model of government which turned the country into a confederation of three tribal regions, thereby inhibiting the nation-building process. It might be necessary to specify the reasons for the opposition to the bill here.

First, it was the Sir Authur Richard’s (Colonial Governor General of Nigeria) constitution of 1946 that laid the framework for the regional arrangement of government, thereby turning Nigeria into the enclaves of the three major ethnic groups, namely, the Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba.  The arrangement sacrificed the interests of the minority ethnic groups by turning them into the political vassals of the three major ethnic groups.

Second, the arrangement turned Nigeria into a confederation of three regions that could not come together to solidify nationhood for all Nigerians due to tribalism and regionalism. This laid the political poison that made it very difficult for Nigeria even today, to operate as a united country.  Chief/Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe reacted to the tribalization and regionalization of the 1964 Constitution by noting that:

Sir Arthur Richards deliberate demarcation of Nigeria into regions has paralysed our political hopes, anyway the fight is on.

As far as the three regions coincide with the three tribes, this Englishman has sown the seeds of tribalism, and I am afraid whether our children or children’s children will be able to solve this problem. As far as the sizes are unequal the largest one will take the smaller ones to ransom soon or later (Benatari, 2004, October 20).

Prophetically, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe predicted what would happen to the country and Nigeria has since been characterized by intense tribalism and regionalism, thereby inhibiting the political, economic, and social development and modernization. Hence, Nigeria continues to be a mere geographical expression where patriotism is in very short supply as those who are responsible for running the affairs of the country are primarily responsible for emasculating it through sucking the financial lifeblood of the country to the point of death.   Thus, most private wealth is generated through pilfering of public funds by appointed and elected public officials, contractors, and connected family members.

The tribalization and regionalization resulted in stunting the growth of nationhood and opening the door wide open for massive corruption. Hence, Nigeria means different things to Nigerians due to the lack of national cohesion. Indeed, Nigeria needs urgent restructuring to solve the existential problems that afflict the country.  So far, political capital has been expended unnecessarily in trying to patch things up by the ruling elite, instead of allowing a robust nation-wide discussion about how to restructure the country to build a united state where all Nigerians are treated equally, irrespective of tribe, ethnicity, region, religion, and political affiliation.

Third, due to the confederal nature of the regional era, Nigeria seemed more like three countries pretentiously operating as federating units of the same country in the 1960s. The regional system collapsed following a military takeover, thereby leading to a bloody civil war that claimed about two million lives.

Fourth, while regionalism greatly benefitted the major ethnic groups, it was oppressive to the minority groups which felt politically suffocated by lack of political space for them to interact and contribute to the nation-building process.  Frustrated by the political suffocation, minority groups demanded the establishment of states during the colonial era.  They pushed the agenda for the creation of states during Henry Willink’s Commission Hearings in 1957 – 1958 (Pam, 2022, August). Perhaps, due to the influence of the major ethnic groups, the British Government did not approve the creation of states before granting independence to Nigeria on October 1, 1960.  As a result, Nigeria operated a regional form of government in which the three major ethnic groups dominated the three regions.

Despite the setback, the minorities continued to demand the creation of states after independence.  They wanted to separate the Middle Belt sub-region from the Northern Region (Pam, 2022, August), the Calabar- Ogoja- Rivers (COR) sub-region from the Eastern Region (Undiyaundeye, 2021, July) and the Mid-West sub-region from the Western Region. The dissatisfaction with the political situation in the North led to violent Tiv Riots in1960 (Audu, n.d.).  The riots were put down by the Nigerian Police Force and the Nigerian Army.

 Eventually, in 1963, the Mid-Western Region was created out of the Western Region while the Eastern Region did not accede to the creation of the Calabar-Ogoja-Rivers (COR) Region/State just as the Northern Region led by the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) also declined to create a Middle Belt Region/State.  Therefore, it was only the Action Group (AG) political party led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo that permitted the establishment of the Mid-West Region.  The frustration and exploitative nature of the tax system in the North led to a second major Tiv riots in 1964 (Audu, n.d.).  Again, the military was deployed to stop the riots after the police seemed overwhelmed by the guerrilla tactics of the rioters. Likewise, the frustration due to marginalization and deprivation also led to the Isaac Adaka Boro rebellion which culminated in the declaration of the Niger Delta Republic on February 23, 1966, a month after the military had seized power in Nigeria (Enemugwem, 2009).

The fact that the COR state was not allowed to gain fruition in Eastern Region partially contributed to the stance the minority groups took prior to and during the civil war. It should be recalled that the Federal Government knew that the minority groups wanted to break away from the Eastern Region, hence, Gen. Yakubu Gowon created the twelve states on May 27, 1966, just as the Eastern Nigerian Government was holding a regional consultative conference in Enugu to determine whether to secede or not (Barrett, 2017, May 7).  Thus, states were created three days prior to the declaration of the Republic of Biafra on May 30, 1966.

Fourth, apart from the struggle for political power, it should be noted that during the heydays of regional governments, higher education was highly politicized.  Apart from the University of Ibadan that was a national university, the University of Nigeria (UNN), Nsukka, the University of Ife (Now Obafemi Awolowo University), and the Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria (ABU) were established by the three regional governments as the regions competed for power.  Aminu (1983) described the regionalized universities as “developed into unassailable ethnic and cultural fortresses.” It was in 1971 that the Federal Government nationalized them. As Nigerians debated the question of whether to establish more universities to meet the increasing demands of a growing population that wanted university education, there was resistance toward establishing additional universities by the ethnic groups that had universities in their territories. They argued that the quality of education would be sacrificed if more universities were established and insisted on maintaining the status quo.  Therefore, the rate of higher educational attainment was very low, especially among minority groups since the major ethnic groups dominated the universities due to their large populations. Only a few minority students were able to gain admission into the universities annually.

Fifth, infrastructural development was very limited and slow since the political capitals were far away from the people.  In many parts of Nigeria, there were no roads at all, so, people took bush paths to get from one point to another most of the time.  The few major roads that were initially built by the British were overused and damaged in many places.  Due to the distance of the regional capitals, the regional governments were not fully in touch with the aspirations of most people in the regions.  This increased frustration and anger among citizens who felt neglected.

Moreover, infrastructural development was mostly concentrated in the ethnic areas of the individuals who wielded political power in most parts of Nigeria.  Thus, many parts of the country remained untouched by development since they had little or no influence in persuading the regional governments to pay attention to them.

Sixth, this brief historical review of the issues which prompted the minority ethnic groups to demand separation from the major ethnic groups here is done to show that the regional system was not as rosy as the proponents of regionalism seem to indicate.  Indeed, the regional system truncated the process of nation-building and Nigeria is still a divided country in the 21st century where the major ethnic groups compete fiercely to dominate the country.  Thus, unlike Ghana where the founding fathers stood for Ghana’s nationhood, the founding fathers in Nigeria ended up adopting regionalism as dictated by each of the three major ethnic groups, thereby sacrificing the national interest as they politicked to dominate the country in a tripolar power play.

The Advantages of the State System

It was obvious that Nigeria needed to replace the regional system because the politicians did not want to effect the changes needed to unify and equalize the political playing field for all ethnic groups, regardless of population size.

Since the politicians failed to change the regional system, it was left for the military to do so. Thus, the replacement of the regional system with the state system after Gen. Yakubu Gowon declared 12 states ushered in a rapid pace in the development and modernization of the infrastructure, economy, and manpower. It is necessary to pinpoint some of the advantages that Nigerians gained from the state system.

First, the division of the country from four regions to twelve states automatically opened the political system.  For instance, during the era of the regional system, the entire Northern Region had only one political capital in Kaduna City.  Even though the North almost geographically dwarfs the South, yet it had just one capital.  Thus, most things were concentrated in Kaduna.  Imagine travelling from Maiduguri, Gusau, Yola, and Kano to Kaduna. In the East, the capital was moved from Calabar to Enugu, so everything had to be done in Enugu.  In the West, Ibadan was the capital.  So, Nigerians in the Western Region always had to travel to Ibadan to get anything done.  In other words, the political capitals during the regional days were very far from most Nigerians. Travelling to these regional capitals was like travelling to a foreign country due to the distance for many Nigerians.

Second, the creation of states brought the government closer to the citizens.  Today, the capitals are not in distant places as before. Imagine travelling from Warri to Asaba compared to travelling to Ibadan or travelling from Akassa to Yenagoa compared to travelling to Enugu. Thus, citizens can visit their state capitals without facing many logistical problems.  In the past, most people could not go to their regional capitals because of the distance and the financial cost.

Third, states facilitated the rapid development and modernization of Nigeria.  How?  For instance, 19 cities and towns are now political capitals in the North while 17 cities and towns are now state capitals in the South.  This means that the creation of states has led to the rapid development, modernization, and urbanization of 36 cities from May 27, 1967, to the present.  Thus, 36 towns have been turned into modern cities within a span of about 50 years. Therefore, it could be said that Nigeria has experienced a faster rate of development, modernization, and urbanization of its cities than any other country in Africa by turning the regions into states, thereby increasing state political capitals which results in the massive urbanization of many towns.  Nigeria is going to have a higher number of cities than most African countries.  For instance, in the former Eastern Region which used to have only one political capital, today, there are eight states capitals, including Abakiliki, Awka, Calabar, Enugu, Owerri, Port Harcourt, Uyo, and Yenagoa.   The Western Region that used to have only one political capital (Ibadan) now has seven political capitals, including Abeokuta, Ado Ekiti, Akure, Asaba, Benin City, Ibadan, Lagos, and Oshogbo. Of course, Lagos and Ibadan were already huge metropolitan cities.  The Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) is an added advantage to the state system. In the North, the creation of states has enabled the development, modernization, and urbanization of cities and towns like Bauchi, Birnin Kebbi, Damaturu, Dutse, Gombe, Gusau, Ilorin, Jalingo, Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Lafia, Lokoja, Maiduguri, Makurdi, Minna, Sokoto, and Yola into major cities. Of course, Kaduna, Kano and Maiduguri were already large cities.  Before, the entire Northern Region had just Kaduna City as its capital. All the identified cities and towns are being developed simultaneously, thereby facilitating the modernization of the country.

Fourth, the creation of states led to the establishment of 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs). Thus, all over the country, apart from the state capital cities, incrementally smaller towns are also being developed as local government headquarters.  This means that the government is definitely getting closer to the citizens than during the heydays of regionalism.  Almost every Nigerian can feel the pulse of the government because it is closer to him or her.  This further means that the entire country is experiencing development, modernization, and urbanization at an unprecedented pace.  For instance, in Akwa Ibom State, Ikot Ekpene, Eket, Oron, and so forth, are developing into major urban centers, apart from Uyo, the state capital, even though they are the headquarters of local governments. The same is taking place in the South-East, South-West, South-South, North-Central, North-East and the North-West.  Of all the zones, it appears that the South-East leads the entire country in rapid development, modernization and urbanization, so much so that an increasing number of towns and villages are springing up like mini modern cities. The overall implication is that Nigeria, in twenty years, might end up being the most modernized country in Africa and probably one of the most developed and urbanized countries in the world due to the creation of states.

Fifth, the state system promotes democracy and equal representation by allowing every ethnic group, regardless of the size of the population, to have representatives and senators to represent them in various ways.  The federal character requirement has enabled Nigerians from different ethnic backgrounds to gain employment at the local, state, and national levels of government. Thus, every corner of Nigeria now feels the impact of government.

Sixth, many young Nigerians are probably not aware that during the era of the regions, as indicated above, there was a debate about whether to establish more universities or not.  The ethnic groups that had one of the major universities in their territories opposed the establishment of additional universities because having higher educational facilities in their territories enabled them to produce a higher number of university graduates than ethnic groups that did not have any university in their territories.  Thus, the university was treated like a status symbol, as well as to control and dominate the government.  Why?  Because the ethnic groups that had universities in their territories had more university graduates. Since they produced most of the graduates, they were able to dominate the administrative and professional positions, both in the public and private sectors of the country.  As a result, the educational gap between ethnic groups that had universities in their territories and those that had no universities in their territories was like the difference between night and day.

The debate about whether to establish more universities or not ended when the military  regime of Gen. Yakubu Gowon, established a national policy under its Third Development Plan for 1975 – 1980 to establish four universities in the country. Eventually in April 1975, four additional universities were established (Nyewusira, 2014).   The policy also enabled the states to eventually establish their own universities also.  By so doing, Nigeria ended up having both national and state universities.  Today, universities have proliferated because even individuals can now establish universities if they have the funds to do so. Thus, the credit for spreading university education in Nigeria goes to the military and not the civilian politicians who ruled Nigeria prior to the military takeover of power.

Indeed, Nigerians should be thankful to the military for opening university education to all Nigerians, thereby destroying the monopoly that a few ethnic groups had in controlling the growth of university education.  Likewise, Nigerians must thank the military for creating states, thereby allowing the states to establish their own universities. Hence, within a short span of time, Nigeria has several universities that allow Nigerians from all works of life to obtain university education today.

Seventh, apart from opening up the university system through the creation of states, the Nigerian military under Gen. Yakubu Giwon also established the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) program to familiarize Nigerian graduates with their country.  Youth corps members are expected to serve in states other than their own states of origin. The program is intended to build a united nation in which all graduates can identify themselves as Nigerians first, thereby increasing patriotic commitment to the success of the country.

Eighth, the creation of states greatly contributes to the reduction of animosity towards the major ethnic groups by members of minority ethnic groups who felt that their political and economic rights were trampled upon during the regional era.  Today, just as the major ethnic groups have states, so are the minority groups, thereby enabling all Nigerians to enjoy the fruits of self-governance through statehood.

It should be recalled that during the days of regionalism, members of the major ethnic groups dominated the political parties, government institutions, universities, and the private sector.  The members of the minority groups could not do anything of substance without going through members of the major ethnic group in each region of the country. Political leaders of the minority groups were forced to create small political parties that they used to agitate for the creation of states. 

Today, with thirty-six states, both the major and minority ethnic groups have produced governors, legislators, judges, and senior administrative officers.  Thus, the creation of states has democratized Nigeria by opening the country in such a manner that enables Nigerians to have access to government through multifarious avenues.

Ninth, it is arguable that a regional form of government represents mostly the interest of the major ethnic groups, and the state form of government represents the interests of both the majority and minority ethnic groups, in proportion to their populations.  This is why the three large ethnic groups have more states and local governments in their territories. The small ethnic groups also gain by having states and local governments in which they do not have to constantly compete with the major ethnic groups for political space.  

Tenth, the military creation of states saved Nigeria from fighting two or more additional civil wars by now.  The reason is that if states were not created, some minority ethnic groups would have resorted to armed rebellion after the civil war to demand self-rule or declare secession. Psychologically, states provide catharsis to many ethnic and sub-groups to breathe a sigh of relief from a regional form of government that choked them.

Eleventh, there is no need to change the state system in order to reduce burdensomeness and wastefulness. Instead, fight corruption uncompromisingly because it is the disease that is negatively impacting the state system.  No political system can function effectively if public funds are privatized without legal consequences. Right now, Nigeria is like a basket filled with holes where water slips through uncontrollably.  It is bringing down the country and creating hardship.

Twelfth, Nigeria is a highly populated country and requires a political system that can bring government closer to the masses.  It is obvious that states represent decentralization of governance which brings government closer to the people.  On the other hand, regionalism reflects a certain degree of centralization of authority, thereby inhibiting a closer relationship between the government and the people.  The eight-regions bill, if passed into law, would create a distance between the people and the government.

Dr. Fapohunda’s  Regional Proposition

The eight regions proposed by Dr. Fapohunda bill is likely to cause more political confusion, dissatisfaction, and pain to Nigerians at a time the country is facing tremendous pain due to massive corruption by the ruling elite, uncontrollable foreign debt, severe economic hardship, and lack of social programs to cushion the effects of hardship necessitated by failed leadership. Already, the indigenous people of Lagos State have declared that they do not want to be part of Western Region (Akinrefon, 2024, June 3). The Igbos have also expressed dissatisfaction over the attempt to remove Ohaji/Egbema from Imo State and place it under Southern Region while they are working to unite all Igbos, (2024, June 24). Naira Forum.

 Moreover, the effort to regionalize the country again is akin to giving people freedom to run their affairs through states and then attempting to take away the freedom through regionalization and expecting them to accept the change without opposition.

 The eight-regional plan seems to integrate all the Yorubas in the Western Region and the Hausas in the Northwestern Region while failing to integrate all the Igbos in the Southeast Region.

Likewise, the plan is not sure of what to do with the South-South ethnic groups. As a result, some of the ethnic groups (Bini, Ishan, Isoko, Urhobo and Itsekiri are included in both the Southern Region and the Mid-West Region. Additionally, the plan does not alter the states that make up the present North-West political zone while seeming to scatter the North-Central and the North-East states.  Thus, Dr. Fapohunda’s plan rewards the South-West and the North-West and penalizes all the other zones by scattering and regrouping them in strange arrangements that might cause severe political problems.

It is apparent that a return to the regional form of government will amount to re-suffocation of the political and economic aspirations of minority ethnic groups.  It could instigate a series of riots reminiscent of the Tiv riots of the 1960s, because it is doubtful whether most minority groups that are now enjoying a certain degree of self-rule would be eager to devolve their political power at the states and allow distant regional capitals to make decisions for them.  Imagine the development that is taking place in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Ebonyi, Edo, Imo, Katsina, Nasarawa, Ondo, Plateau, and Zamfara states today because of the state form of government. In the days of regionalism, the Ijaws had no single major road in their territory.  Today, roads are being built in every part of Ijawland.

Recommendation

Instead of going backwards to embrace the regional system that turned Nigeria into a confederacy, as Dr Akin Fapohunda is suggesting through his “A Bill for an Act to Substitute the Annexture to Decree 24 of 1999 with a New Governance Model for the Federal Republic of Nigeria” bill, it is preferable for Nigerians to solve their constitutional issues by looking at fresh ideas.

Therefore, instead of trying to replace the state system, why not adopt the existing six zones and turn them into regions.  In other words, the six political zones comprising of the North-East, North-Central, North-West, South-East, South-South, and the South-West seem more practicable and cost-effective than the eight regions being proposed. The six zones make more sense because Nigerians have been acclimatized to it and the states fit neatly into the zonal arrangements. The six zones will cost less, both politically and financially to implement than the confusing eight regions being proposed at this time that Nigeria is facing serious economic and financial crises.

It is doubtful whether the eight-region plan will be more effective in curing Nigerian ills than the state system. It might end up like the previous regional system by rewarding some ethnic groups while penalizing other ethnic groups.  Moreover, if emphasis is not placed on fighting corruption, no amount of reengineering of the political system can solve the thorny issues afflicting the country.

In peroration, the most important step that should be taken to solve Nigeria’s problems is to convene a constitutional conference which could be referred to as a Sovereign National Conference (SNC).  A Sovereign National Conference involving all ethnic groups in the country should be held to discuss openly the kind of country and political system that Nigerians want. A SNC is needed because Nigeria was created by a foreign power to satisfy its geopolitical and economic interests and not those of the indigenous African ethnic  groups that were forced to become part of the colony of Nigeria.

 Therefore, to get rid of the colonial hangover and recreate the country in the image of the ethnic groups that make up the country, Nigerians should be allowed to freely express their political desires through a genuinely organized Sovereign National Conference.  If a SNC is not possible, then it might be necessary to allow Nigerians to revisit the reports of the 2014 National Conference as the Afenifere had suggested.  From such effort, a new nation could be created that reflects the cultural, political, judicial and economic aspirations of the Nigerian people.

In the process of engaging in a constitutional restructuring conference, if any ethnic group wishes to leave Nigeria, it must be allowed to do so and those groups that want to continue to remain in Nigeria should be allowed to do so.  It is ridiculous to claim that Nigeria is a sovereign state and yet, continue to perpetuate a colonial system that was imposed through force by an outside power.

References

Akinrefon, D. (2024, June 3). Regionalism: We won’t be part of Western Region – Lagos indigenes. Vanguard. Regionalism: We won’t be part of Western Region — Lagos indigenes – Vanguard News (vanguardngr.com).

Aminu, J. (1983). The factor of centralisation in two decades of Nigerian universities development.In Chizea, C. (ed) 20 Years of university education in Nigeria. Lagos: NUC Printing Press.

Audu, B. (n.d.). Tiv (Nigeria) riots of1960, 1964: The principle of minimum force and counterinsurgency. Academia.edu. https://www.academia.edu/7673034/Tiv_Nigeria_Riots_of_1960_1964_The_Principle_of_Minimum_Force_and_Counter_Insurgency.

Barrett, L. (2017, May 7). The origin of states creation in Nigeria: Confronting the future at 50.  Daily Trust. https://dailytrust.com/the-origin-of-states-creation-in-nigeria-confronting-the-future-at-50/

Benatari, B. (2004, October 24). Colonization: The divide and rule policy. Ijaw nation Forum. ijawnation@yahoogroups.com.

Enemugwem, J. H. (2009)).  The Niger Delta in Nigerian nation-building, 1960-2005. Africana Journal, Volume 3, No 1. 72-87.  Microsoft Word – Dec 2009 issue-WORD Format (africanajournal.org).

Fapohunda’s divisive bill: Uniting Yorubas, splitting Igbos. Niara Forum. https://www.nairaland.com/8127091/fapohundas-divisive-bill-uniting-yorubas.

Nyiekaa, T. (2024, June 13). Tinubu introduces draft bill for new eight regions. Independent. https://independent.ng/tinubu-introduces-draft-bill-for-eight-new-regions/.

Nyewusira, B. N. (2014). Politics and the establishment of public universities: Implications for University Education. Journal of Education and Practice Volume 5, No 19. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234636098.pdf.

Oyedokun, T. (2024, June 15). House of Representatives clarifies position on bill proposing return to regional government. Business Day. https://businessday.ng/news/article/house-of-representatives-clarifies-position-on-bill-proposing-return-to-regional-government/.

Pam, J. G. (August 2022). Introduction to the Middle Belt Movement in Nigeria. Academia. https://www.academia.edu/86768005/INTRODUCTION_TO_THE_MIDDLE_BELT_MOVEMENT_IN_NIGERIA_mbc.

Undiyaundeye, U. A. (2021, July 3). Agitation for the creation of Calabar-Ogoja-Rivers State, the 1st phase. In witness to history in honour of Sir Sebastian J. Umoren, edited by Philip Afaha. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352979985_Agitation_For_The_Creation_of_Calabar_Ogoja-Rivers_COR_State_03-Jul-2021_17-44-43

A Stalemate in the Russia -Ukraine War is Tantamount to Russian Victory and Ukrainian Defeat

Priye S. Torulagha

Although the Israel -Hamas war has taken the global focus away from the Russia – Ukraine war, the war continues in a grinding manner, like during the First World War.  Hence, the war is proceeding in a manner reminiscent of a dramatic play in a theater where the play is gradually winding down as it gets closer to the end and the dramatis personae begin to act reflectively to dramatize the implications of the story.  Thus, the major participants in the war are winding down their intentions, expectations, and positions because the outcome seems to go in an unexpected direction with an advantage for Russia.  However, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, characterized the situation as a stalemate (Slisco, 2023, December 4).    Assuming that the war is stalemated, as Gen. Zaluzhnyi indicates, and not a military victory for Russia per se, it means that the Ukrainians were not able to push Russian forces out of the country in their counteroffensive and the Russian forces seemed to have dug-in their positions inside Ukraine. The development implies a strategic military victory for Russia and a defeat for Ukraine. Why?

Due to the stalemated nature of the conflict, meaning that Ukraine was not able to achieve its primary goal of driving out Russian forces from its territory during the counteroffensive in the summer months of 2023, The failure seems to put a dent on  the enthusiasm of the country’s backers in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, and so forth, as they increasingly assume that the war is a lost effort.  This perception greatly influences American and European citizens who are increasingly opposed to sending more public funds to support a lost cause. As a result, in the US., some members of the Republican Party are becoming resistant to continue funding the war and are putting inhibitions to make it difficult for the US Congress to pass a legislation needed to approve funding of Ukraine.  To lessen opposition to funding Ukraine, President Joe Biden included money for securing the US southern border as part of a strategy to gain Republican support to pass a bill to fund Ukraine and Israel at the same time. President Biden hopes that by allocating funding for securing the southern border to stop illegal immigration, the Republicans will approve funding for Ukraine as well as Israel (Kanno-Youngs, 2023, December 8).  Despite the president’s effort, Senate Republicans still refused to back down on their demands. This means that Ukraine is no longer at the core of US NATO policy but Israel over the war in Gaza. Thus, the Israel -Hamas war is now at the center of gravity for the US to stand firm with Israel while it tries to liquidate Hamas which launched the October 7, 2023, raid that killed 1,200 people, thereby necessitating Israel’s counterattack.

A Stalemate is a Victory for Russia

It is argued here that a stalemate in the war is a victory for Russia and a defeat for Ukrainian.  Why? The view that a stalemate is a victory for Russia is not an exaggeration, as Con Coughlin wrote of the situation, “With the Ukraine conflict languishing in stalemate, the possibility that Russian president Vladimir Putin might yet emerge victorious from his ill-judged invasion cannot be ignored, with all the implications such as outcome would have for Europe’s security (Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified. (2023, December 7).

 First, a stalemate implies that Russia is winning the war because it still occupies a third of Ukrainian territory and tactically divides the country into two.  The reason is that Ukraine has not been able to drive Russian forces out of its territory, meaning that its military offensive did not yield the expected result.  Therefore, as far as Russian forces remain in Ukraine, the country cannot exercise sovereignty over its territory. If Ukrainian forces do not push the Russian forces out, then the country is defeated.

Second, one of the reasons Russia gave for invading Ukraine was to integrate the Russian-speaking regions in the East with Russia since the Ukrainians had allegedly discriminated and violated their human rights in the country.  Therefore, if the war remains stalemated, it means that Russia has achieved the goal of carving out the ethnic Russian regions, including Crimea from Ukraine since Ukrainian forces have not been able to drive the Russian forces out of the country to restore the territorial integrity of the country.

Third, If the war remains stalemated, it means that Ukraine cannot return to normalcy since the Russian presence in the country implies that Ukraine cannot begin reconstruction and enable the displaced Ukrainians to return and join the effort to reconstruct and normalize their existence.  A stalemate simply means that the war continues, regardless of the pace of the conflict.  This further means that Russia can launch missile or rocket attacks against any Ukrainian target anytime since hostilities remain.  Such a situation further means that if Ukraine tries to create any employment situation or carry out a major repair of the infrastructure, Russia can put a stop to such an effort anytime to compel the country to limp along without focus, as far as the stalemate remains.

Fourth, a stalemate means that Russia is winning the war because there are no Ukrainian forces in Russian territory apart from occasional sending of drones and missiles to hit some targets in the country.  Thus, most Russians do not feel the impact of the war as Ukrainians do.  The reason is that Russians continue to develop and expand their economy by manufacturing products for the global market to earn national income while Ukraine cannot manufacture and sell because of Russian constant attacks.  Moreover, over 8 million Ukrainians are refugees outside the country and cannot go back while hostilities remain.

Fifth, as the war drags on, many frustrated Ukrainians might blame President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top advisers for failing to analyze the situation critically before plunging head-long to fight a conventional war on the instigation of outside political and military interests, against the strategic interest of Ukraine.  The blame could put undue pressure on President Zelensky to negotiate an end to the war with Russia to avoid further destruction of the country.  Those outside the country who are waiting for the war to end might also get tired of remaining as refugees in other countries and become  antagonistic to Zelensky’s government.  Diana Roy noted:

According to the UN refugee agency, more than thirteen million people, or nearly a third of Ukraine’s prewar population, have been displaced since the invasion. Of that, more than five million are internally displaced, while over eight million are refugees living in neighboring countries (Roy, 2023, June 8).

 Thus, a stalemate is politically unpalatable to Ukraine’s high government officials in a country besieged by war. It could result in a sudden change of leadership if President Zelensky does not handle the situation tactfully. It is also not good for the psychology of the Ukrainian people who increasingly feel despondent.

Sixth, a stalemate is going to affect the level of European support for Ukraine.  The reason is that both government officials and the citizens of NATO countries are getting tired of continuously funding a war that is not likely to end in Ukraine’s victory.  So far, it appears that Western countries have spent about $200 billion to support Ukraine in the war with Russia.  The US alone has spent about $113 billion in support of the country (Drenon, 2023, February 21). Thus, to continue to fund a stalemated war is to continue to exhaust their financial resources and military weaponry.  It is widely reported that many NATO members have nearly exhausted their stockpiles of military weapons for their own national security.  The reason is that most NATO members did not expect the war to last this long since at the beginning of the war they had the impression that Russia would be incapable of sustaining the war for a long duration due to the severe economic sanctions instituted by the US and the European Union (EU) to cripple its economy, thereby prompting it to stop the war. As a result of the oversimplification of Russian capability following the economic sanctions, Western experts and journalists had repeatedly reported that Russia was on the verge of running out of arms.  The first such report was in March 2022, then it was repeated in April 2022, then July and September 2022.  Unknown to Western and Ukrainian experts and intelligence agents, the Russians were able to adopt measures to minimize the negative effects of the economic sanctions imposed on the country.  Apart from beating the sanctions, the Russians also ramped up arms production to offset losses in the battlefield.  As a result, of all the countries that are involved in the Russian – Ukrainian war, it is only Russia that successfully mobilized the country for war by ramping up the production of military weaponry. On the other hand, neither the US nor its European allies mobilized their arms manufacturing industries to ramp up production to meet the war demands of Ukraine.

Seventh, thus, while Russia continues to increase its arms production to meet the demands of the war, Ukraine is unable to produce its own weapons because Russia is constantly on the look out for any Ukrainian effort to produce any weapon to fill its dwindling stockpiles.  The difference in the quantity of arms possessed by both sides forces President Zelensky to travel to the West regularly to beg for arms supplies.  In fact, he visited Washington DC on December 12, 2023, to plead for the passage of a bill that will allow the US to continue funding his country’s war effort which is in a precarious situation.  Basically, the Ukrainians are fighting two wars, one is to campaign vigorously for continuing Western financial and military support and the other is to militarily hold the Russians back so that their forces do not crash for lack of weapons. It is not easy for President Zelensky to travel around Europe and the US to beg for continuing support.

Eighth, the more the war is stalemated, the more Russia is going to produce more weapons with a view of attacking Ukraine constantly, thereby causing more damage to the already devastated infrastructure.  Eventually, Russia might decide to expand its territorial control if it realizes that Ukraine is on the verge of collapsing militarily.  To avoid such a development, it is necessary for the Ukrainian Government to reinforce its military forces while looking for a way to negotiate an end to the war. To avoid a sudden collapsing of the Ukrainian military forces due to lack of weapons, it is necessary for the US and its NATO allies to continue to fund Ukraine while encouraging the country’s leaders to negotiate for a face-saving way out of the imbroglio.

Ninth, a Russian victory in Ukraine increases the concern in Europe that Russia might expand the war with the hope of recreating a Soviet-like empire by reincorporating some Eastern European countries into the Russian federation.  The concern is prompted by the fact that most NATO countries have almost exhausted their military stockpiles.  This means that if Russia were to advance farther west, many European countries would be left unprotected after expending a considerable quantity of their military hardware in Ukraine.  Again, Con Coughlin noted:

The prospect of Russia intensifying the threat it poses to European security in the event of Putin achieving only modest gains in Ukraine has prompted a number of prominent European military experts to question openly NATO’s preparedness for meeting such a challenge. A recent defence conference in Berlin was treated to a doomsday scenario whereby Europe risked suffering the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire under Napoleon, and being “washed away” in a future conflict with Russia because of NATO’s inability to defend Europe’s eastern flank. (2023, December 7).

The concern about European unpreparedness to face a Russian westward movement is being expressed in Germany by some officials. Reuters reported that the German Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces stated that the German military is suffering from shortage of weapons now than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  Eva Hoegl stated “The Bundeswehr has too little of everything, and it has even less since (Russia’s invasion (2023, March 14). This sentiment is also being expressed in other parts of Europe as Russia seems to have a military advantage over Ukraine in the war.

Tenth, as the war reaches a stalemate, thereby informing discerning minds about the possibility of Russia winning the war and Ukraine’s defeat, many Ukrainians are beginning to dodge or avoid the military draft, unlike during the early phase of the war when the level of patriotism was very high, fearful that they would be sent to fight a war with no hope of military victory.  A war with no hope of victory implies that it is fruitless to enlist in the armed forces, except one wish to die for nothing.  Thus, many young Ukrainians are fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. Michael Murphy described the development:

Ukrainian men are trekking through mountains to dodge conscription, according to border officials.

Soldiers armed with Kalashnikov rifles and dressed in white camouflage are regularly intercepting fighting age men attempting to flee Ukraine via its snowy, mountainous border with Romania, a Ukrainian border official told the Washington Post (2023, December 8).

Eleventh, as the impression is being created that Russia is winning the war and Ukraine is not featuring well, its immediate neighbors to the West, including Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states of Finland, Latvia, Estonia, and probably Norway are worried that Russia might come after them.  This concern could force them to act independently rather than follow a collective NATO plan to deal with the Russian threat.  An individual effort to shore up their territories could lead to rivalry among neighbors, thereby playing to the strategic advantage of Russia.

Moreover, the threat of Russia’s westward movement after the war with Ukraine could tempt some European Union members to blame the United States for putting them in the predicament, instead of accepting responsibility for pushing Ukraine to stand toe to toe and fight Russia, a military superpower in a conventional war.  Some might begin to lay the groundwork for a European defense system and rely less on NATO which is led by the United States that is thousands of miles away from the European mainland.

Failure to Pay Attention to the Cold War and Russian Concerns about NATO’s Eastward Expansion

Ukraine would not have been caught in this unpleasant situation if its political and military leaders had paid attention to the history of the Cold War and adopted neutrality as a policy to escape being caught in the power struggle between the United States and Russia.  Additionally, if the country’s leaders had systematically analyzed the political developments following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, they would not have exposed their country and citizens to the harrowing war that has devastated the country.  Instead of doing so, they were carried away by emotion and fell prey to the big power play by the United States and the NATO.

Thus, they failed to realize that Russia is a military superpower like the United States and China, with thousands of nuclear warheads that is very difficult to subdue militarily.  Likewise, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his advisers did not seem to pay attention to the fact that Russia had insisted as far back as 1991 during negotiations to reunite East Germany with West Germany that it would not tolerate NATO eastward expansion to its borders.  It seemed that both the Soviet and Western allies agreed in various high-level meetings involving President Mihail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union, Soviet Union Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnazde, President George Bush Sr. of the United States,  US Secretary of State, Mr. James Baker,  former CIA Director Robert Gates, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany, German Foreign Minister  Hans-Dietrich Gensher, President Francois Mitterrand of France, French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of United Kingdom,  British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd, the German Democratic Republic’s Foreign minister Osker Fischer, and NATO Secretary General Manfred Worner that NATO would not expand eastwards toward Russia (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).

Even US officials were aware of the danger of expanding NATO towards the Russian border. George Kennan, the US architect of the Western containment policy against communism and Soviet expansion warned about the danger by saying: 

expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking …” (“Noted: George Kennan on NATO Expansion. (n.d.);  Goldgeier, June 1, 1999).

Likewise, William Burns, the former US ambassador to Russia and CIA director, tended to agree with George Kennan by stating, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite not just Putin” (Cohen, March 27, 2022).  The New York Times felt the possibility of Russian aggressive rection toward NATO expanding eastwards by writing:

After a decade of NATO expansion into the former Communist bloc, a resurgent Russia

Is now vigorously opposing membership for Georgia and Ukraine and pressing those already in the alliance with threats should Poland and the Czech Republic cooperate with the United States on missile defense” (Shanker, September 18, 2008).

The Germans too knew that Russia will not take it kindly as NATO expands eastward. Hence on February 10, 1990, West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl said, “We believe that NATO should not expand the sphere of its activity” (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).  It should be recalled that former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev warned against expanding NATO eastward toward Russia while addressing US Congress in 1997 “You cannot humiliate a people without consequences” (“Gorbachev warns Congress against NATO expansion,” April 16, 1997).

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian leadership was keenly aware of the danger of NATO moving towards the Russian border, yet decided to go along with the idea of aligning with NATO against Russia which shares a border with the country.  The fact that the Ukrainian leadership knew the risk of taking side in a power struggle between global military superpowers is supported by a revelation made by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicating that the Minsk Agreement was only a ploy to allow the Ukrainian military to build up and prepare for war against Russia.  She made the revelation while being interviewed by Die Zeit by saying the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It…used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not the modern Ukraine.”  (Kuzmarov. 2022, December 19).

The implication being that both the West and the Ukrainian leadership made a conscious choice to prepare for war even before Russia invaded on February 24, 2022.  This further meant that Ukraine adopted war as a strategy to deal with Russia. The Angela Merkel revelation tended to support the Russian view that it had to invade Ukraine since the country had prepared militarily to threaten its territorial integrity and sphere of influence. Thus, the Ukrainian leadership decided to take the Russian bull by its horns and openly aligned with NATO to prepare to fight Russia. To reinforce its position, the leadership enunciated incredulous policy goals which included driving out Russia militarily from its territory, effecting a regime change in Russia and ushering in a democratic system in the country.  This meant that the die was already casted before Russia actually invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  

Lessons Learned and Inferences Drawn from the Ukrainian Imbroglio

The political and military leadership of small to medium size countries should learn from the untenable Ukrainian situation.  Thus, many lessons and inferences can be drawn from the Ukrainian imbroglio.

First, it is critical for political and military leaders to clearly identify the strategic interests of their states before embarking on a journey that could embroiled them in a conflict. This must be done using the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) model in an objective manner.  The purpose is to make sure that political and military leaders do not embroil their states in unwarranted regional and global political and military conflicts that can devour them.  

Second, it is strategically important to depend less on foreign financial and military assistance in making decisions about war and peace.  The reason is that the more a particular state depends on the financial and military assistance or aid of another, it is going to overrate its military capability and underestimate the military capability of its potential opponents, thereby getting involved in conflict situations it would have completely avoided.  It is obvious that Ukrainian political and military leaders had their military capability inflated based on promises made by the NATO and other European countries.  In other words, if Ukrainian leaders had not put their hope on NATO providing them essential sophisticated military equipment, they would not have decided to confront Russia toe-to-toe in a grinding conventional war, knowing full well that Russia is a military superpower and has the economies of large-scale military technological production and has assorted categories of military weaponry.  In other words, no political or military leader should evaluate his or her country’s military capability to fight a superior military power based on the assumptions or promises of support coming from the outside.

Third, it is strategically significant for any sovereign state to avoid depending on foreign military and financial aid.  Why, it is a common saying that nothing goes for nothing.  Thus, the more a state depends on another state for financial and military support, it is going to dance to the musical tune of the donor  state.  In other words, the country that provides the assistance is definitely going to get something back in return.  Quite often, the receiving country ends up giving back a major facet of its assets or resources or ability to make independent decisions.  Apparently, Ukraine sacrificed its ability to make an independent evaluation of the Russian invasion of the country since it depended on the decisions of its outside supporters.  It is widely reported that both Russia and Ukraine came very close to making a peace deal through the diplomatic effort of Turkey to end the war in March 2022, a month after the Russian invasion but the deal did not go through, perhaps, due to outside influence on the Ukrainian leadership. Joe Walsh reported:

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are weighing a potential deal that would require Ukraine to be militarily neutral—barring the country from joining NATO or hosting foreign bases—but allow it to seek security guarantees from other countries and pursue EU membership, according to the Financial Times, which cited four unnamed sources.

Ukrainian politician and negotiator David Arakhamia told the newspaper these security guarantees could require countries like the United States to assist Ukraine if it is attacked, an arrangement he compared to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense rule (2022, March 28).

It seemed that the United Kingdom (UK) was opposed to the negotiation between Ukraine and Russia.  Jake Johnson reported about the UK intervention to stop the negotiations:

Johnson’s meeting with cabinet ministers came weeks after the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda reported that during a visit to Kyiv in April, the British leader urged Zelenskyy to cut off diplomatic talks with Putin, insisting that the Russian president “should be pressured, not negotiated with.”

Peace talks have since been at a standstill as Russian forces ramp up their assault on eastern Ukraine and the governments of the United Kingdom and the United States prepare to arm Ukrainian forces with longer-range rocket systems, heightening fears of a broader war between Russia and NATO (2022, June 7. Borsi Johnson says Ukraine should not accept “bad peace” with Russia. Common Dreams. (2022, June 7).

There is no doubt that if Ukraine had not depended on outside financial and military support, a peace agreement would have been sealed.  Unfortunately, it had to take the position of its outside partners into consideration in negotiating with Russia, thereby complicating the situation for Ukraine’s political and military leadership as Britian opposed the idea.

It should be noted that Nigeria and other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) almost fell into the Ukrainian trap when they decided to militarily intervene in the Republic of Niger and restore a democratically elected leader who was overthrown in a military coup.  It was apparent that the decision of the leadership of the ECOWAS to intervene was greatly encouraged by France, US, and other Western countries, against the general interests of Africa.  Fortunately, the pressure from West African citizens and interest groups across the African continent forced the ECOWAS leadership to avoid being trapped in a war that would have seriously impacted the West African region negatively.

It should also be noted that the Republic of Georgia too almost got itself entangled in the feud between NATO and Russia.  Luckily for Georgia, the destruction inflicted on Ukraine has enabled many Georgians to realize that the best policy for a country that shares a border with a military superpower is to adopt a policy of neutrality. It should be recalled that Switzerland survived both the 1st and 2nd World wars unscathed because it adopted neutrality.

Fourth, it is always preferable to have seasoned individuals become political and military leaders of any country so that they are not easily influenced by emotions to make costly decisions.  It is also important to have seasoned leaders who can stand their ground and defend the national interest without being compelled to embark on regional and global actions that are capable of seriously hurting their countries and citizens.

Fifth, in particular, African leaders should learn from the Ukrainian situation and stop travelling around the globe in search of foreign financial and military aid and rely more on themselves and their citizens to develop and modernize their countries.  In this regard, they should minimize attending conferences organized by other countries to woo and exploit them.  Likewise, they should be more careful before signing bilateral and multilateral treaties that often end up disadvantaging their countries and citizens.  

Sixth, it is necessary for less militarily powerful countries to avoid signing military cooperation treaties with militarily powerful countries.  The reason is that such treaties render them semiautonomous, even though they are sovereign states.  A treaty involves obligations, hence, as soon as one is signed, the signee must abide by the conditions of the treaty.  Quite often, the most dominant military powers will always have an advantage over the less militarily powerful members of any bilateral or multilateral treaty.  Indeed, Ukraine was not capable of making independent decisions that serve its strategic interest.

Seventh, there is no other option left than for the Ukrainian political and military leadership to consult with its Western partners and then negotiate with Russia to end the war.   A stalemate is not to the strategic advantage of Ukraine.  Ukraine needs an end to the war so that its millions of citizens who are wallowing in refugee camps can return to help rebuild the country.  Ukraine can easily be rebuilt due to the industrious nature of the citizens.  Its agricultural industry will rebound very quickly to continue to become a major supplier of agricultural products in the world.

Eighth, it is a grievous strategic flaw to underrate the military capability of potential military opponents.  It should be noted that the Ukrainian political and military leadership, following Western advice, underrated the military capability of the Russians to fight a grinding war.  As a result, when Russian forces retreated from Kiev and other parts of Ukraine, following the initial invasion, the readjustment of Russian forces was treated as a defeat for Russia and the military capability of Ukraine to fight toe-to-toe with the country was blown out of proportion.  Soltan Barany, like many other experts and intellectuals, characterized the Russian military readjustment of strategy as a failure.  Hence, he identified five major reasons why Russia failed militarily (Barany, 2023, January).Another Western writer too viewed the Russian tactical change of military plan as a sign of military failure and some sort of victory for Ukraine. Eugene Humer, a former intelligence officer wrote:

A year into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, Russia has suffered a major strategic defeat, Ukraine has achieved a major strategic victory, and the West has demonstrated a combination of resolve, unity, and cohesion that few had expected. This, however, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Ukrainians, having tasted victory on the battlefield and united in their desire for justice and revenge, cannot accept a land-for-peace compromise. For Putin, whose war it is primarily, compromise is not an option after the humiliation of the failed campaign in pursuit of his maximalist objectives. (Rumer, 2023, February 17).

   It was the euphoria over the Russian realignment of strategy and the perception in the West that the change in plan was a reflection of Russian military failure that led to the theorization that Ukraine’s military forces would be able to fight a grinding war with Russia until it is exhausted, thereby leading to a regime change and the democratization of Russia.  The euphoria also led the Ukrainian leadership to insist that it will fight until Russian troops are forced out of every inch of Ukrainian territory. The perception that the Russian military is weak probably compelled Ukrainian officials to insist on accomplishing six goals in the war with Russia.  The goals, as identified in an article titled “The Russo-Ukrainian War: It is Time for a Negotiated Settlement to Avoid Military Quagmire and a Possible 3rd World War,” included (1) push Russia out of its territory, (2) possibly defeat and degrade Russian military capability, (3) possibly initiate a regime change so that President Putin is removed from power in order to democratize Russia, (4) ensure severe global economic sanctions against Russia for invading the country, (5) demand compensation for the infrastructural damage and loss of life caused by the Russian invasion, (6) conduct international tribunal to try Russians who violate human rights by committing war crimes, and (7) eventually gain membership in the European Union and NATO (Soldak, 2022, June 5).

It was also the underrating of Russia that led the West and Ukraine to keep informing the world that Russia would soon run out of weapons.  This prediction was made repeatedly in March, April, June, July, and September 2022, as indicated earlier. In fact, some Western experts even predicted that due to poor Russian military performance, President Putin would announce a military victory on May 9, 2022, and pull his forces out of Ukraine to save face.  The Western and Ukrainian predictions were so much against Russia and in favor of Ukraine to the point that Ukraine’s top intelligence official, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov predicted the possibility of Russia running out of weapons by saying:

“Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, armaments and materials. Its economy and production are not able to cover these losses. It’s changed its military chain of command. If Russia’s military fails in its aims this spring, it will be out of military tools (Hjelmagaard, 2023, March 2).The senior military intelligence officer made this prediction in early March 2023 about the possibility of Russia running out of weapons.

Here again, Ukraine fell for the so-called “less than capable Russian military might’ hype.  Unfortunately for Ukraine, by the end of November 2023, it is Russia that was predicted by both Western and Ukrainian experts and officials to collapse militarily that is standing strong and Ukraine is limping along while gasping for breath.  The Western nations now realized that it is their own stockpiles of weapons that are diminishing while Russia continues to build up its weaponry.  A German official acknowledged the fact that Germany is not equipped for an effective fighting force.  Reuters wrote: “The chief of the German army vented his frustration over what he sees as the long-running neglect of military readiness in his country in an unusual public rant a few hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding that the army was in bad shape (“German army chief ‘fed up’ with the neglect of country’s military.”

The German concern extends to the entire European continent, as analysts worry. The lack of European military preparedness is described below:

European militaries have now experienced decades of decline. Today, much of Europe’s military hardware is in a shocking state of disrepair. Too many of Europe’s forces aren’t ready to fight. Its fighter jets and helicopters aren’t ready to fly; its ships and submarines aren’t ready to sail; and its vehicles and tanks aren’t ready to roll. Europe lacks the critical capabilities for modern warfare, including so-called enabling capabilities—such as air-refueling to support fighter jets, transport aircraft to move troops to the fight, and the high-end reconnaissance and surveillance drones essential for modern combat. European forces aren’t ready to fight with the equipment they have, and the equipment they have isn’t good enough. (Bergmann, Lamond, and Cicarilli, 2021, June 1).

Ninth, the Russia – Ukraine war turned the Western media into a public relations medium for Ukraine as journalistic objectivity was openly sacrificed in support of Ukraine.  All the major Western news media networks including CNN, FOX, DW, New York Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Reuters, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Diet Zeit, WELT, Telewizja Polska, Fakt, and so on and so forth, became the mouthpieces of Ukraine and NATO. Even some of the experienced Western journalists sacrificed professionalism and became advocates for Ukraine.  Due to the unprofessional behavior of Western journalists in the coverage of the war, Western journalists have lost their respect in the non-Western world.  Increasingly, Western journalists are viewed as public relations agents of their countries and the West.  It is doubtful whether the Western media will be able to regain any atom of journalistic respect in the non-Western world again because of the unprofessional performance of the journalists.

Tenth, the war also highlighted the intellectual weaknesses of Western think-tanks and retired senior military officers.  Many researchers and experts who work for Western think-tanks also behaved like Western journalists and acted as advocates for Ukraine instead of providing objective analysis of the conflict.  They tended to agree with government positions in order to show their patriotism and devotion to the Western point of view.  The same goes for many retired Western senior military officers (four-star, three-star, two-star, and one-star generals) who spoke and wrote as if they were advocates for NATO and Ukraine instead of providing an objective analysis of the war that would have been helpful to Western and Ukrainian political and military leaders.  During the early phase of the war, it was more enlightening to listen to the analytical commentary of retired military officers from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and those in Latin America than retired Western military officers who tended to speak as if they were obligated to support a particular point of view.  Many of them profoundly underestimated Russian military capability, thereby encouraging the Ukrainian political leadership to sacrifice the country. On the other hand, retired Western military officers like Col. Douglas MacGregor and Maj. William Scott Ritter who provided an objective appraisal of the war were and have been blatantly ignored by both government officials and the Western media because their analyses of the war are not in line with the adopted official position. So far, the analytical predictions of these two retired American officers and a few others seem to reflect the actuality of the situation on the ground in Ukrainian.

Eleventh, the Russia – Ukraine War clearly showed the danger that follows when propaganda is used excessively to an extent whereby decision-makers begin to believe in them instead of listening to the soldiers who are fighting the battles on the ground.  In other words, political and military leaders should always avoid treating propaganda as facts, otherwise, they would end up holding the short end of the stick and fail miserably.

References

Barany, Z. (2023, January). Armies and Autocrats: Why Putin’s military failed. Journal of democracy. Vol. 34, Issue 1, pp. 80 – 94). https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/armies-and-autocrats-why-putins-military-failed/.

Bergmann, M., Lamond, J., and Siena Cicarilli, S. (2021, June 1). The case foe EU defense. American Progress.  https://www.americanprogress.org/article/case-eu-defense/)

Coughlin, C. (2022, December 7). Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified. The Telegraph. https;//news.yahoo.com/putin-close-victory-europe-terrified-060000644.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAA.

Drenon, B. (2023, February 21). How much money has the US given to Ukraine? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canda-64656301/

German army chief ‘fed up’ with the neglect of country’s military. (2022, February 24). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-army-chief-fed-up-with-neglect-countrys-military-2022-02-24/.

German military in worse shape than before Russia’s invasion – official. ( 2023, March 14). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-military-worse-shape-than-before-russias-invasion-official-2023-03-14/).

Goldgeier, J. (June 1, 1999). The US decision to enlarge NATO: How, when why and whatnext?BrookingsRetrieved March 19, 2022, fromhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-u-s-decision-to-enlarge-nato-how-when-why-and-what-next/).

Gorbachev warns Congress against NATO expansion. (April 16, 1997). Deseret News. Retrieved March 16, 2022, https://www.deseret.com/1997/4/16/19306892/gorbachev-warns-congress-against-nato-expansion).  

Borsi Johnson says Ukraine should not accept ‘bad peace’ with Russia. (2022, June 7). Common Dreams. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/06/07/boris-johnson-says-ukraine-should-not-accept-bad-peace-with-russia.

Hjelmagaard, K.  (2023, March 2). Russia will be out of ‘ military tools’ by spring, Ukraine’s top military spy. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/02/war-top-ukraine-spy-says-russia-out-of-military-tools/11310628002/.

Kanno-Youngs, Z. (2023, December 8) Biden tied Ukraine aid to border security, and it backfired on him.  The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/07/us/politics/biden-immigration-ukraine.html.

Kuzmarov. J.  (2022, December 19). Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admits that Minsk peace agreements were part of a scheme for Ukraine to buy time to prepare for war.  Global Research. https://www.globalresearch.ca/former-german-chancellor-merkel-admits-minsk-peace-agreements-part-scheme-ukraine-buy-time-pre

Murphy, M. (2023, December 8). Ukrainian men trekking through mountains to dodge conscription. The Telegraph. https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-men-trekking-mountains-dodge-154239237.html.

National Security Archive. (December 17, 2017). “NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev heard.(December 17, 2017).  Retrieved March 18, 2022, from https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbache-heard-western-leaders-early). 

Noted: George Kennan on NATO Expansion. (n.d.). Project on Defense Alternatives. Retrieved March 19, 2022, from  https://comw.org/pda/george-kennan-on-nato-expansion/;  James Goldgeier, June 1, 1999. The US Decision to enlarge NATO: How, when, why and what Next? Brookings.  Retrieved March 19, 2022, from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-u-s-decision-to-enlarge-nato-how-when-why-and-what-next/.

Roy, D.  (2023, June 8). How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later. Council on Foreign Relations. https//www.cfr.org/in-brief/Ukraine-humanitarian-crisis-refuggees-aid.

Rumer, E.  (2023, February 17). Putin’s war against Ukraine: The end of the beginning. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071 ).

Slisco, A. (2023, December 4). Ukraine official accuse Zelensky about lying about the war. Newsweek. Https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-official-accuses-zelensky–lying-1849427).   

Soldak,  (2022, June 5). What is Ukraine’s end goal with its war with Russia: Voices from the Battlefield. Forbes, Retrieved June 25, 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/katyasoldak/2022/06/05/what-is-ukraines-end-goal-in-its-war-with-russia-voices-from-the-battlefield/?sh=737badfd10b4.

Sullivan, B. (February 24, 2022).  How NATO’s expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine.  NPR. Retrieved March 21, 2022, from https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer).

Walsh. J. (2022, March 28). Russia – Ukraine peace talks: Russia willing to let Ukraine join EU if it stays out of NATO. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-russia-willing-to-let-ukraine-join-eu-if-it-stays-ou

A Stalemate in the Russia -Ukraine War is Tantamount to Russian Victory and Ukrainian Defeat

Priye S. Torulagha

Although the Israel -Hamas war has taken the global focus away from the Russia – Ukraine war, the war continues in a grinding manner, like during the First World War.  Hence, the war is proceeding in a manner reminiscent of a dramatic play in a theater where the play is gradually winding down as it gets closer to the end and the dramatis personae begin to act reflectively to dramatize the implications of the story.  Thus, the major participants in the war are winding down their intentions, expectations, and positions because the outcome seems to go in an unexpected direction with an advantage for Russia.  However, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, characterized the situation as a stalemate (Slisco, 2023, December 4).    Assuming that the war is stalemated, as Gen. Zaluzhnyi indicates, and not a military victory for Russia per se, it means that the Ukrainians were not able to push Russian forces out of the country in their counteroffensive and the Russian forces seemed to have dug-in their positions inside Ukraine. The development implies a strategic military victory for Russia and a defeat for Ukraine. Why?

Due to the stalemated nature of the conflict, meaning that Ukraine was not able to achieve its primary goal of driving out Russian forces from its territory during the counteroffensive in the summer months of 2023, The failure seems to put a dent on  the enthusiasm of the country’s backers in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Poland, and so forth, as they increasingly assume that the war is a lost effort.  This perception greatly influences American and European citizens who are increasingly opposed to sending more public funds to support a lost cause. As a result, in the US., some members of the Republican Party are becoming resistant to continue funding the war and are putting inhibitions to make it difficult for the US Congress to pass a legislation needed to approve funding of Ukraine.  To lessen opposition to funding Ukraine, President Joe Biden included money for securing the US southern border as part of a strategy to gain Republican support to pass a bill to fund Ukraine and Israel at the same time. President Biden hopes that by allocating funding for securing the southern border to stop illegal immigration, the Republicans will approve funding for Ukraine as well as Israel (Kanno-Youngs, 2023, December 8).  Despite the president’s effort, Senate Republicans still refused to back down on their demands. This means that Ukraine is no longer at the core of US NATO policy but Israel over the war in Gaza. Thus, the Israel -Hamas war is now at the center of gravity for the US to stand firm with Israel while it tries to liquidate Hamas which launched the October 7, 2023, raid that killed 1,200 people, thereby necessitating Israel’s counterattack.

A Stalemate is a Victory for Russia

It is argued here that a stalemate in the war is a victory for Russia and a defeat for Ukrainian.  Why? The view that a stalemate is a victory for Russia is not an exaggeration, as Con Coughlin wrote of the situation, “With the Ukraine conflict languishing in stalemate, the possibility that Russian president Vladimir Putin might yet emerge victorious from his ill-judged invasion cannot be ignored, with all the implications such as outcome would have for Europe’s security (Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified. (2023, December 7).

 First, a stalemate implies that Russia is winning the war because it still occupies a third of Ukrainian territory and tactically divides the country into two.  The reason is that Ukraine has not been able to drive Russian forces out of its territory, meaning that its military offensive did not yield the expected result.  Therefore, as far as Russian forces remain in Ukraine, the country cannot exercise sovereignty over its territory. If Ukrainian forces do not push the Russian forces out, then the country is defeated.

Second, one of the reasons Russia gave for invading Ukraine was to integrate the Russian-speaking regions in the East with Russia since the Ukrainians had allegedly discriminated and violated their human rights in the country.  Therefore, if the war remains stalemated, it means that Russia has achieved the goal of carving out the ethnic Russian regions, including Crimea from Ukraine since Ukrainian forces have not been able to drive the Russian forces out of the country to restore the territorial integrity of the country.

Third, If the war remains stalemated, it means that Ukraine cannot return to normalcy since the Russian presence in the country implies that Ukraine cannot begin reconstruction and enable the displaced Ukrainians to return and join the effort to reconstruct and normalize their existence.  A stalemate simply means that the war continues, regardless of the pace of the conflict.  This further means that Russia can launch missile or rocket attacks against any Ukrainian target anytime since hostilities remain.  Such a situation further means that if Ukraine tries to create any employment situation or carry out a major repair of the infrastructure, Russia can put a stop to such an effort anytime to compel the country to limp along without focus, as far as the stalemate remains.

Fourth, a stalemate means that Russia is winning the war because there are no Ukrainian forces in Russian territory apart from occasional sending of drones and missiles to hit some targets in the country.  Thus, most Russians do not feel the impact of the war as Ukrainians do.  The reason is that Russians continue to develop and expand their economy by manufacturing products for the global market to earn national income while Ukraine cannot manufacture and sell because of Russian constant attacks.  Moreover, over 8 million Ukrainians are refugees outside the country and cannot go back while hostilities remain.

Fifth, as the war drags on, many frustrated Ukrainians might blame President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top advisers for failing to analyze the situation critically before plunging head-long to fight a conventional war on the instigation of outside political and military interests, against the strategic interest of Ukraine.  The blame could put undue pressure on President Zelensky to negotiate an end to the war with Russia to avoid further destruction of the country.  Those outside the country who are waiting for the war to end might also get tired of remaining as refugees in other countries and become  antagonistic to Zelensky’s government.  Diana Roy noted:

According to the UN refugee agency, more than thirteen million people, or nearly a third of Ukraine’s prewar population, have been displaced since the invasion. Of that, more than five million are internally displaced, while over eight million are refugees living in neighboring countries (Roy, 2023, June 8).

 Thus, a stalemate is politically unpalatable to Ukraine’s high government officials in a country besieged by war. It could result in a sudden change of leadership if President Zelensky does not handle the situation tactfully. It is also not good for the psychology of the Ukrainian people who increasingly feel despondent.

Sixth, a stalemate is going to affect the level of European support for Ukraine.  The reason is that both government officials and the citizens of NATO countries are getting tired of continuously funding a war that is not likely to end in Ukraine’s victory.  So far, it appears that Western countries have spent about $200 billion to support Ukraine in the war with Russia.  The US alone has spent about $113 billion in support of the country (Drenon, 2023, February 21). Thus, to continue to fund a stalemated war is to continue to exhaust their financial resources and military weaponry.  It is widely reported that many NATO members have nearly exhausted their stockpiles of military weapons for their own national security.  The reason is that most NATO members did not expect the war to last this long since at the beginning of the war they had the impression that Russia would be incapable of sustaining the war for a long duration due to the severe economic sanctions instituted by the US and the European Union (EU) to cripple its economy, thereby prompting it to stop the war. As a result of the oversimplification of Russian capability following the economic sanctions, Western experts and journalists had repeatedly reported that Russia was on the verge of running out of arms.  The first such report was in March 2022, then it was repeated in April 2022, then July and September 2022.  Unknown to Western and Ukrainian experts and intelligence agents, the Russians were able to adopt measures to minimize the negative effects of the economic sanctions imposed on the country.  Apart from beating the sanctions, the Russians also ramped up arms production to offset losses in the battlefield.  As a result, of all the countries that are involved in the Russian – Ukrainian war, it is only Russia that successfully mobilized the country for war by ramping up the production of military weaponry. On the other hand, neither the US nor its European allies mobilized their arms manufacturing industries to ramp up production to meet the war demands of Ukraine.

Seventh, thus, while Russia continues to increase its arms production to meet the demands of the war, Ukraine is unable to produce its own weapons because Russia is constantly on the look out for any Ukrainian effort to produce any weapon to fill its dwindling stockpiles.  The difference in the quantity of arms possessed by both sides forces President Zelensky to travel to the West regularly to beg for arms supplies.  In fact, he visited Washington DC on December 12, 2023, to plead for the passage of a bill that will allow the US to continue funding his country’s war effort which is in a precarious situation.  Basically, the Ukrainians are fighting two wars, one is to campaign vigorously for continuing Western financial and military support and the other is to militarily hold the Russians back so that their forces do not crash for lack of weapons. It is not easy for President Zelensky to travel around Europe and the US to beg for continuing support.

Eighth, the more the war is stalemated, the more Russia is going to produce more weapons with a view of attacking Ukraine constantly, thereby causing more damage to the already devastated infrastructure.  Eventually, Russia might decide to expand its territorial control if it realizes that Ukraine is on the verge of collapsing militarily.  To avoid such a development, it is necessary for the Ukrainian Government to reinforce its military forces while looking for a way to negotiate an end to the war. To avoid a sudden collapsing of the Ukrainian military forces due to lack of weapons, it is necessary for the US and its NATO allies to continue to fund Ukraine while encouraging the country’s leaders to negotiate for a face-saving way out of the imbroglio.

Ninth, a Russian victory in Ukraine increases the concern in Europe that Russia might expand the war with the hope of recreating a Soviet-like empire by reincorporating some Eastern European countries into the Russian federation.  The concern is prompted by the fact that most NATO countries have almost exhausted their military stockpiles.  This means that if Russia were to advance farther west, many European countries would be left unprotected after expending a considerable quantity of their military hardware in Ukraine.  Again, Con Coughlin noted:

The prospect of Russia intensifying the threat it poses to European security in the event of Putin achieving only modest gains in Ukraine has prompted a number of prominent European military experts to question openly NATO’s preparedness for meeting such a challenge. A recent defence conference in Berlin was treated to a doomsday scenario whereby Europe risked suffering the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire under Napoleon, and being “washed away” in a future conflict with Russia because of NATO’s inability to defend Europe’s eastern flank. (2023, December 7).

The concern about European unpreparedness to face a Russian westward movement is being expressed in Germany by some officials. Reuters reported that the German Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces stated that the German military is suffering from shortage of weapons now than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  Eva Hoegl stated “The Bundeswehr has too little of everything, and it has even less since (Russia’s invasion (2023, March 14). This sentiment is also being expressed in other parts of Europe as Russia seems to have a military advantage over Ukraine in the war.

Tenth, as the war reaches a stalemate, thereby informing discerning minds about the possibility of Russia winning the war and Ukraine’s defeat, many Ukrainians are beginning to dodge or avoid the military draft, unlike during the early phase of the war when the level of patriotism was very high, fearful that they would be sent to fight a war with no hope of military victory.  A war with no hope of victory implies that it is fruitless to enlist in the armed forces, except one wish to die for nothing.  Thus, many young Ukrainians are fleeing the country to avoid being drafted. Michael Murphy described the development:

Ukrainian men are trekking through mountains to dodge conscription, according to border officials.

Soldiers armed with Kalashnikov rifles and dressed in white camouflage are regularly intercepting fighting age men attempting to flee Ukraine via its snowy, mountainous border with Romania, a Ukrainian border official told the Washington Post (2023, December 8).

Eleventh, as the impression is being created that Russia is winning the war and Ukraine is not featuring well, its immediate neighbors to the West, including Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states of Finland, Latvia, Estonia, and probably Norway are worried that Russia might come after them.  This concern could force them to act independently rather than follow a collective NATO plan to deal with the Russian threat.  An individual effort to shore up their territories could lead to rivalry among neighbors, thereby playing to the strategic advantage of Russia.

Moreover, the threat of Russia’s westward movement after the war with Ukraine could tempt some European Union members to blame the United States for putting them in the predicament, instead of accepting responsibility for pushing Ukraine to stand toe to toe and fight Russia, a military superpower in a conventional war.  Some might begin to lay the groundwork for a European defense system and rely less on NATO which is led by the United States that is thousands of miles away from the European mainland.

Failure to Pay Attention to the Cold War and Russian Concerns about NATO’s Eastward Expansion

Ukraine would not have been caught in this unpleasant situation if its political and military leaders had paid attention to the history of the Cold War and adopted neutrality as a policy to escape being caught in the power struggle between the United States and Russia.  Additionally, if the country’s leaders had systematically analyzed the political developments following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, they would not have exposed their country and citizens to the harrowing war that has devastated the country.  Instead of doing so, they were carried away by emotion and fell prey to the big power play by the United States and the NATO.

Thus, they failed to realize that Russia is a military superpower like the United States and China, with thousands of nuclear warheads that is very difficult to subdue militarily.  Likewise, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his advisers did not seem to pay attention to the fact that Russia had insisted as far back as 1991 during negotiations to reunite East Germany with West Germany that it would not tolerate NATO eastward expansion to its borders.  It seemed that both the Soviet and Western allies agreed in various high-level meetings involving President Mihail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union, Soviet Union Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnazde, President George Bush Sr. of the United States,  US Secretary of State, Mr. James Baker,  former CIA Director Robert Gates, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany, German Foreign Minister  Hans-Dietrich Gensher, President Francois Mitterrand of France, French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of United Kingdom,  British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd, the German Democratic Republic’s Foreign minister Osker Fischer, and NATO Secretary General Manfred Worner that NATO would not expand eastwards toward Russia (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).

Even US officials were aware of the danger of expanding NATO towards the Russian border. George Kennan, the US architect of the Western containment policy against communism and Soviet expansion warned about the danger by saying: 

expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking …” (“Noted: George Kennan on NATO Expansion. (n.d.);  Goldgeier, June 1, 1999).

Likewise, William Burns, the former US ambassador to Russia and CIA director, tended to agree with George Kennan by stating, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite not just Putin” (Cohen, March 27, 2022).  The New York Times felt the possibility of Russian aggressive rection toward NATO expanding eastwards by writing:

After a decade of NATO expansion into the former Communist bloc, a resurgent Russia

Is now vigorously opposing membership for Georgia and Ukraine and pressing those already in the alliance with threats should Poland and the Czech Republic cooperate with the United States on missile defense” (Shanker, September 18, 2008).

The Germans too knew that Russia will not take it kindly as NATO expands eastward. Hence on February 10, 1990, West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl said, “We believe that NATO should not expand the sphere of its activity” (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).  It should be recalled that former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev warned against expanding NATO eastward toward Russia while addressing US Congress in 1997 “You cannot humiliate a people without consequences” (“Gorbachev warns Congress against NATO expansion,” April 16, 1997).

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian leadership was keenly aware of the danger of NATO moving towards the Russian border, yet decided to go along with the idea of aligning with NATO against Russia which shares a border with the country.  The fact that the Ukrainian leadership knew the risk of taking side in a power struggle between global military superpowers is supported by a revelation made by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicating that the Minsk Agreement was only a ploy to allow the Ukrainian military to build up and prepare for war against Russia.  She made the revelation while being interviewed by Die Zeit by saying the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It…used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not the modern Ukraine.”  (Kuzmarov. 2022, December 19).

The implication being that both the West and the Ukrainian leadership made a conscious choice to prepare for war even before Russia invaded on February 24, 2022.  This further meant that Ukraine adopted war as a strategy to deal with Russia. The Angela Merkel revelation tended to support the Russian view that it had to invade Ukraine since the country had prepared militarily to threaten its territorial integrity and sphere of influence. Thus, the Ukrainian leadership decided to take the Russian bull by its horns and openly aligned with NATO to prepare to fight Russia. To reinforce its position, the leadership enunciated incredulous policy goals which included driving out Russia militarily from its territory, effecting a regime change in Russia and ushering in a democratic system in the country.  This meant that the die was already casted before Russia actually invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  

Lessons Learned and Inferences Drawn from the Ukrainian Imbroglio

The political and military leadership of small to medium size countries should learn from the untenable Ukrainian situation.  Thus, many lessons and inferences can be drawn from the Ukrainian imbroglio.

First, it is critical for political and military leaders to clearly identify the strategic interests of their states before embarking on a journey that could embroiled them in a conflict. This must be done using the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) model in an objective manner.  The purpose is to make sure that political and military leaders do not embroil their states in unwarranted regional and global political and military conflicts that can devour them.  

Second, it is strategically important to depend less on foreign financial and military assistance in making decisions about war and peace.  The reason is that the more a particular state depends on the financial and military assistance or aid of another, it is going to overrate its military capability and underestimate the military capability of its potential opponents, thereby getting involved in conflict situations it would have completely avoided.  It is obvious that Ukrainian political and military leaders had their military capability inflated based on promises made by the NATO and other European countries.  In other words, if Ukrainian leaders had not put their hope on NATO providing them essential sophisticated military equipment, they would not have decided to confront Russia toe-to-toe in a grinding conventional war, knowing full well that Russia is a military superpower and has the economies of large-scale military technological production and has assorted categories of military weaponry.  In other words, no political or military leader should evaluate his or her country’s military capability to fight a superior military power based on the assumptions or promises of support coming from the outside.

Third, it is strategically significant for any sovereign state to avoid depending on foreign military and financial aid.  Why, it is a common saying that nothing goes for nothing.  Thus, the more a state depends on another state for financial and military support, it is going to dance to the musical tune of the donor  state.  In other words, the country that provides the assistance is definitely going to get something back in return.  Quite often, the receiving country ends up giving back a major facet of its assets or resources or ability to make independent decisions.  Apparently, Ukraine sacrificed its ability to make an independent evaluation of the Russian invasion of the country since it depended on the decisions of its outside supporters.  It is widely reported that both Russia and Ukraine came very close to making a peace deal through the diplomatic effort of Turkey to end the war in March 2022, a month after the Russian invasion but the deal did not go through, perhaps, due to outside influence on the Ukrainian leadership. Joe Walsh reported:

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are weighing a potential deal that would require Ukraine to be militarily neutral—barring the country from joining NATO or hosting foreign bases—but allow it to seek security guarantees from other countries and pursue EU membership, according to the Financial Times, which cited four unnamed sources.

Ukrainian politician and negotiator David Arakhamia told the newspaper these security guarantees could require countries like the United States to assist Ukraine if it is attacked, an arrangement he compared to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense rule (2022, March 28).

It seemed that the United Kingdom (UK) was opposed to the negotiation between Ukraine and Russia.  Jake Johnson reported about the UK intervention to stop the negotiations:

Johnson’s meeting with cabinet ministers came weeks after the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda reported that during a visit to Kyiv in April, the British leader urged Zelenskyy to cut off diplomatic talks with Putin, insisting that the Russian president “should be pressured, not negotiated with.”

Peace talks have since been at a standstill as Russian forces ramp up their assault on eastern Ukraine and the governments of the United Kingdom and the United States prepare to arm Ukrainian forces with longer-range rocket systems, heightening fears of a broader war between Russia and NATO (2022, June 7. Borsi Johnson says Ukraine should not accept “bad peace” with Russia. Common Dreams. (2022, June 7).

There is no doubt that if Ukraine had not depended on outside financial and military support, a peace agreement would have been sealed.  Unfortunately, it had to take the position of its outside partners into consideration in negotiating with Russia, thereby complicating the situation for Ukraine’s political and military leadership as Britian opposed the idea.

It should be noted that Nigeria and other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) almost fell into the Ukrainian trap when they decided to militarily intervene in the Republic of Niger and restore a democratically elected leader who was overthrown in a military coup.  It was apparent that the decision of the leadership of the ECOWAS to intervene was greatly encouraged by France, US, and other Western countries, against the general interests of Africa.  Fortunately, the pressure from West African citizens and interest groups across the African continent forced the ECOWAS leadership to avoid being trapped in a war that would have seriously impacted the West African region negatively.

It should also be noted that the Republic of Georgia too almost got itself entangled in the feud between NATO and Russia.  Luckily for Georgia, the destruction inflicted on Ukraine has enabled many Georgians to realize that the best policy for a country that shares a border with a military superpower is to adopt a policy of neutrality. It should be recalled that Switzerland survived both the 1st and 2nd World wars unscathed because it adopted neutrality.

Fourth, it is always preferable to have seasoned individuals become political and military leaders of any country so that they are not easily influenced by emotions to make costly decisions.  It is also important to have seasoned leaders who can stand their ground and defend the national interest without being compelled to embark on regional and global actions that are capable of seriously hurting their countries and citizens.

Fifth, in particular, African leaders should learn from the Ukrainian situation and stop travelling around the globe in search of foreign financial and military aid and rely more on themselves and their citizens to develop and modernize their countries.  In this regard, they should minimize attending conferences organized by other countries to woo and exploit them.  Likewise, they should be more careful before signing bilateral and multilateral treaties that often end up disadvantaging their countries and citizens.  

Sixth, it is necessary for less militarily powerful countries to avoid signing military cooperation treaties with militarily powerful countries.  The reason is that such treaties render them semiautonomous, even though they are sovereign states.  A treaty involves obligations, hence, as soon as one is signed, the signee must abide by the conditions of the treaty.  Quite often, the most dominant military powers will always have an advantage over the less militarily powerful members of any bilateral or multilateral treaty.  Indeed, Ukraine was not capable of making independent decisions that serve its strategic interest.

Seventh, there is no other option left than for the Ukrainian political and military leadership to consult with its Western partners and then negotiate with Russia to end the war.   A stalemate is not to the strategic advantage of Ukraine.  Ukraine needs an end to the war so that its millions of citizens who are wallowing in refugee camps can return to help rebuild the country.  Ukraine can easily be rebuilt due to the industrious nature of the citizens.  Its agricultural industry will rebound very quickly to continue to become a major supplier of agricultural products in the world.

Eighth, it is a grievous strategic flaw to underrate the military capability of potential military opponents.  It should be noted that the Ukrainian political and military leadership, following Western advice, underrated the military capability of the Russians to fight a grinding war.  As a result, when Russian forces retreated from Kiev and other parts of Ukraine, following the initial invasion, the readjustment of Russian forces was treated as a defeat for Russia and the military capability of Ukraine to fight toe-to-toe with the country was blown out of proportion.  Soltan Barany, like many other experts and intellectuals, characterized the Russian military readjustment of strategy as a failure.  Hence, he identified five major reasons why Russia failed militarily (Barany, 2023, January).Another Western writer too viewed the Russian tactical change of military plan as a sign of military failure and some sort of victory for Ukraine. Eugene Humer, a former intelligence officer wrote:

A year into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, Russia has suffered a major strategic defeat, Ukraine has achieved a major strategic victory, and the West has demonstrated a combination of resolve, unity, and cohesion that few had expected. This, however, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Ukrainians, having tasted victory on the battlefield and united in their desire for justice and revenge, cannot accept a land-for-peace compromise. For Putin, whose war it is primarily, compromise is not an option after the humiliation of the failed campaign in pursuit of his maximalist objectives. (Rumer, 2023, February 17).

   It was the euphoria over the Russian realignment of strategy and the perception in the West that the change in plan was a reflection of Russian military failure that led to the theorization that Ukraine’s military forces would be able to fight a grinding war with Russia until it is exhausted, thereby leading to a regime change and the democratization of Russia.  The euphoria also led the Ukrainian leadership to insist that it will fight until Russian troops are forced out of every inch of Ukrainian territory. The perception that the Russian military is weak probably compelled Ukrainian officials to insist on accomplishing six goals in the war with Russia.  The goals, as identified in an article titled “The Russo-Ukrainian War: It is Time for a Negotiated Settlement to Avoid Military Quagmire and a Possible 3rd World War,” included (1) push Russia out of its territory, (2) possibly defeat and degrade Russian military capability, (3) possibly initiate a regime change so that President Putin is removed from power in order to democratize Russia, (4) ensure severe global economic sanctions against Russia for invading the country, (5) demand compensation for the infrastructural damage and loss of life caused by the Russian invasion, (6) conduct international tribunal to try Russians who violate human rights by committing war crimes, and (7) eventually gain membership in the European Union and NATO (Soldak, 2022, June 5).

It was also the underrating of Russia that led the West and Ukraine to keep informing the world that Russia would soon run out of weapons.  This prediction was made repeatedly in March, April, June, July, and September 2022, as indicated earlier. In fact, some Western experts even predicted that due to poor Russian military performance, President Putin would announce a military victory on May 9, 2022, and pull his forces out of Ukraine to save face.  The Western and Ukrainian predictions were so much against Russia and in favor of Ukraine to the point that Ukraine’s top intelligence official, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov predicted the possibility of Russia running out of weapons by saying:

“Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, armaments and materials. Its economy and production are not able to cover these losses. It’s changed its military chain of command. If Russia’s military fails in its aims this spring, it will be out of military tools (Hjelmagaard, 2023, March 2).The senior military intelligence officer made this prediction in early March 2023 about the possibility of Russia running out of weapons.

Here again, Ukraine fell for the so-called “less than capable Russian military might’ hype.  Unfortunately for Ukraine, by the end of November 2023, it is Russia that was predicted by both Western and Ukrainian experts and officials to collapse militarily that is standing strong and Ukraine is limping along while gasping for breath.  The Western nations now realized that it is their own stockpiles of weapons that are diminishing while Russia continues to build up its weaponry.  A German official acknowledged the fact that Germany is not equipped for an effective fighting force.  Reuters wrote: “The chief of the German army vented his frustration over what he sees as the long-running neglect of military readiness in his country in an unusual public rant a few hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding that the army was in bad shape (“German army chief ‘fed up’ with the neglect of country’s military.”

The German concern extends to the entire European continent, as analysts worry. The lack of European military preparedness is described below:

European militaries have now experienced decades of decline. Today, much of Europe’s military hardware is in a shocking state of disrepair. Too many of Europe’s forces aren’t ready to fight. Its fighter jets and helicopters aren’t ready to fly; its ships and submarines aren’t ready to sail; and its vehicles and tanks aren’t ready to roll. Europe lacks the critical capabilities for modern warfare, including so-called enabling capabilities—such as air-refueling to support fighter jets, transport aircraft to move troops to the fight, and the high-end reconnaissance and surveillance drones essential for modern combat. European forces aren’t ready to fight with the equipment they have, and the equipment they have isn’t good enough. (Bergmann, Lamond, and Cicarilli, 2021, June 1).

Ninth, the Russia – Ukraine war turned the Western media into a public relations medium for Ukraine as journalistic objectivity was openly sacrificed in support of Ukraine.  All the major Western news media networks including CNN, FOX, DW, New York Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Reuters, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Diet Zeit, WELT, Telewizja Polska, Fakt, and so on and so forth, became the mouthpieces of Ukraine and NATO. Even some of the experienced Western journalists sacrificed professionalism and became advocates for Ukraine.  Due to the unprofessional behavior of Western journalists in the coverage of the war, Western journalists have lost their respect in the non-Western world.  Increasingly, Western journalists are viewed as public relations agents of their countries and the West.  It is doubtful whether the Western media will be able to regain any atom of journalistic respect in the non-Western world again because of the unprofessional performance of the journalists.

Tenth, the war also highlighted the intellectual weaknesses of Western think-tanks and retired senior military officers.  Many researchers and experts who work for Western think-tanks also behaved like Western journalists and acted as advocates for Ukraine instead of providing objective analysis of the conflict.  They tended to agree with government positions in order to show their patriotism and devotion to the Western point of view.  The same goes for many retired Western senior military officers (four-star, three-star, two-star, and one-star generals) who spoke and wrote as if they were advocates for NATO and Ukraine instead of providing an objective analysis of the war that would have been helpful to Western and Ukrainian political and military leaders.  During the early phase of the war, it was more enlightening to listen to the analytical commentary of retired military officers from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and those in Latin America than retired Western military officers who tended to speak as if they were obligated to support a particular point of view.  Many of them profoundly underestimated Russian military capability, thereby encouraging the Ukrainian political leadership to sacrifice the country. On the other hand, retired Western military officers like Col. Douglas MacGregor and Maj. William Scott Ritter who provided an objective appraisal of the war were and have been blatantly ignored by both government officials and the Western media because their analyses of the war are not in line with the adopted official position. So far, the analytical predictions of these two retired American officers and a few others seem to reflect the actuality of the situation on the ground in Ukrainian.

Eleventh, the Russia – Ukraine War clearly showed the danger that follows when propaganda is used excessively to an extent whereby decision-makers begin to believe in them instead of listening to the soldiers who are fighting the battles on the ground.  In other words, political and military leaders should always avoid treating propaganda as facts, otherwise, they would end up holding the short end of the stick and fail miserably.

References

Barany, Z. (2023, January). Armies and Autocrats: Why Putin’s military failed. Journal of democracy. Vol. 34, Issue 1, pp. 80 – 94). https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/armies-and-autocrats-why-putins-military-failed/.

Bergmann, M., Lamond, J., and Siena Cicarilli, S. (2021, June 1). The case foe EU defense. American Progress.  https://www.americanprogress.org/article/case-eu-defense/)

Coughlin, C. (2022, December 7). Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified. The Telegraph. https;//news.yahoo.com/putin-close-victory-europe-terrified-060000644.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAA.

Drenon, B. (2023, February 21). How much money has the US given to Ukraine? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canda-64656301/

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Borsi Johnson says Ukraine should not accept ‘bad peace’ with Russia. (2022, June 7). Common Dreams. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/06/07/boris-johnson-says-ukraine-should-not-accept-bad-peace-with-russia.

Hjelmagaard, K.  (2023, March 2). Russia will be out of ‘ military tools’ by spring, Ukraine’s top military spy. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/02/war-top-ukraine-spy-says-russia-out-of-military-tools/11310628002/.

Kanno-Youngs, Z. (2023, December 8) Biden tied Ukraine aid to border security, and it backfired on him.  The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/07/us/politics/biden-immigration-ukraine.html.

Kuzmarov. J.  (2022, December 19). Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admits that Minsk peace agreements were part of a scheme for Ukraine to buy time to prepare for war.  Global Research. https://www.globalresearch.ca/former-german-chancellor-merkel-admits-minsk-peace-agreements-part-scheme-ukraine-buy-time-pre

Murphy, M. (2023, December 8). Ukrainian men trekking through mountains to dodge conscription. The Telegraph. https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-men-trekking-mountains-dodge-154239237.html.

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Noted: George Kennan on NATO Expansion. (n.d.). Project on Defense Alternatives. Retrieved March 19, 2022, from  https://comw.org/pda/george-kennan-on-nato-expansion/;  James Goldgeier, June 1, 1999. The US Decision to enlarge NATO: How, when, why and what Next? Brookings.  Retrieved March 19, 2022, from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-u-s-decision-to-enlarge-nato-how-when-why-and-what-next/.

Roy, D.  (2023, June 8). How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later. Council on Foreign Relations. https//www.cfr.org/in-brief/Ukraine-humanitarian-crisis-refuggees-aid.

Rumer, E.  (2023, February 17). Putin’s war against Ukraine: The end of the beginning. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071 ).

Slisco, A. (2023, December 4). Ukraine official accuse Zelensky about lying about the war. Newsweek. Https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-official-accuses-zelensky–lying-1849427).   

Soldak,  (2022, June 5). What is Ukraine’s end goal with its war with Russia: Voices from the Battlefield. Forbes, Retrieved June 25, 2022, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/katyasoldak/2022/06/05/what-is-ukraines-end-goal-in-its-war-with-russia-voices-from-the-battlefield/?sh=737badfd10b4.

Sullivan, B. (February 24, 2022).  How NATO’s expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine.  NPR. Retrieved March 21, 2022, from https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer).

Walsh. J. (2022, March 28). Russia – Ukraine peace talks: Russia willing to let Ukraine join EU if it stays out of NATO. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-russia-willing-to-let-ukraine-join-eu-if-it-stays-ou

Nigeria: Land of Exaggerated Lifestyles, Mimicry, and Unnecessary Titles

Due to massive corruption, Nigeria is an hyperinflated society where many people adopt a lifestyle that is above their financial and material capability.  As a result, they adopt the Oliver Twist character where they become artful dodgers by manipulating, tricking, pilfering, looting, intimidating, lying, conning, hustling, and conniving to acquire wealth without necessarily working for it.  Hence, there are billionaires who have never produced any marketable product that enhances their wealth.  There are some elected and appointed public officials who live in mansions that could be described as castles, own several properties, and even private planes despite the fact that their official salaries are only sufficient for them to live modestly.  There are military, police, and other top-level security officers who are multimillionaires and own multiple properties even though their salaries are incapable of providing for such things.  There are civil servants who own properties all over the country even though their salaries cannot be used to explain their sources of wealth. There are multi-millionaire contractors who keep getting contracts even though they have never executed any tangible contract. Daily, there are many individuals who look for quick ways to accumulate wealth without working honestly to do so. There are some parents who think they can make quick money by selling their children. There are also those who believe they can make quick money by engaging in ritual killing of their loved ones.

As a result of the fact that the state is the primary means for the accumulation of private wealth, the unemployment situation is unbearable because many of the so-called billionaires and millionaires are pilfering from the state instead of investing in businesses and industries to create employment to accommodate millions of Nigerians who need employment to take care of themselves and their families.

Thus, Nigeria is a dysfunctional society that lacks a sense of balance or what Aristotle refers to as the “golden mean.” As a result, people are scrambling to acquire wealth by any means necessary as if the national ship is sinking. Consequently, the country is being asphyxiated as its financial lifeblood is sucked mercilessly daily, especially by those who manage the affairs of the state. Apparently, Nigeria is like a theater where a sizable number of the people, especially public officials, and civil servants are actors and actresses. Nigeria is weird because the more Nigerians claim to be Christians and Muslims, the more they engage in behaviors that are far removed from the tenets of their adopted religions.  It is not unusual for a Christian pastor and an Islamic imam to engage in ritual killings in order to increase the size of their congregations and make huge money while quoting the Bible and the Quran to demonstrate their depth of understanding of their adopted religions.

The Purpose of this Article

The purpose of this article is to explore the ways in which Nigerians engage in an exaggerated lifestyle and the almost pathological desire to acquire titles.  To accomplish these two goals, the article is divided into two sections.  The first section explores the ways in which Nigerians live an exaggerated manner.  The second section examines the manner in which Nigerians seek  titles in order to reinforce an exaggerated lifestyle.  It is argued that the exaggerated lifestyle and the desire for unnecessary titles are products of corruption which has eaten deeply into the fabric of Nigerian society so much so that the country is turning into a failed state because it can no longer withstand the financial and political abuse being perpetrated against it, especially by it is own ruling elite.  Thus, the ruling elite behaves like colonialists because they exploit the state for their self-gratification.  Therefore, they are INTERNAL COLONIALISTS whose main interest is exploiting the state and the citizens to enrich themselves. It is inappropriate to refer to those who claim to be the ruling elite in Nigeria as leaders.  They are not leaders but plutocrats and internal colonialists whose main interest is to exploit the people as much as possible, like the former external colonialists. 

Section I:  The Exaggerated Lifestyle

Nigeria’s survival as a modern state is in question because Nigerians have not been able to work together to build a united nation.  Consequently, only a minority of the population seems patriotic.  The most unpatriotic elements are members of the ruling elite (political, military, police, customs, business, religious, high-level public and civil servants, and educators) who have been greatly responsible for plundering the country with total disregard for societal consequences because they have a lifestyle dictated by corruption in which they must pilfer from the state to sustain.  In realization of the extravagant lifestyle that the ruling elite or the internal colonialists maintain, other Nigerians follow suit, hence, the entire country is a make-believe nation where people strive to make money without necessarily working for it.  As a result, Nigeria is a highly dysfunctional nation where the primary means of creating and acquiring personal wealth is by stealing from the state. Thus, Nigerians live an exaggerated lifestyle in various ways.

First, due to an overinflated lifestyle, Nigerian politicians do not believe in democracy but merely act to create the impression that they are representing somebody while they are singularly devoted to maintaining an artificial lifestyle that they have adopted to keep up with the Jones in the advanced world.  They do so in many ways.

a.  Elections are a do-or-die matter because having been socialized to live an inflated lifestyle that their financial means cannot sustain, the politicians do everything possible to prevail, including lying, bribing, rigging, paying off voters, intimidating potential voters for opposition political parties, killing, and engaging in ritual sacrifices to win elections and remain in power. They hire political thugs to do whatever is necessary to ensure that they prevail, knowing that electoral victory will increase their financial well-being.  Nigerian political bosses expect their thugs to take whatever measures deemed necessary for them to prevail and occupy political offices.

b. Due to an inflated lifestyle that they cannot sustain on their salaries and financial holdings, elections in Nigeria will always be rigged because the stakes are too high.   The reason is that by succeeding as elected officials, the politicians sustain a lifestyle that can only be sustained through exploiting the state financially.  On the other hand, an electoral defeat can turn a Nigerian local government chair or a representative or a senator, or a governor from dancing with tons of public money stored away in private homes and foreign banks into a poverty-stricken commoner in an instant. Why?  Because the primary source of private wealth in Nigeria is through pilfering from the state.  It is not unusual for the local government chair or governor or representative or senator to literally hijack an entire public budget designed for a particular program into a personal wealth.  There have been reports that some governors have private houses stored with tons of public money which they use to buy votes and rig elections in order to remain in power. A veteran Nigerian politician alleged that a governor in one of the northwestern states of Nigeria had N22 bn. stored away in his house (Odunsi, 2023, February 12). Obviously, in Nigeria, as soon as one occupies a public office, the individual is most likely to suddenly become wealthy by converting public funds into private wealth.  On the other hand, an electoral defeat means a descent into political nobody since the individual would not be able to touch public funds freely. This means a road to financial drought.

Consequently, no matter the amount of money spent on innovating the electoral system by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), elections in Nigeria will continue to be bought and or rigged.  Likewise, regardless of the technological innovation of the electoral system, politicians will do everything possible to weaken it so that they win elections or remain in office because they cannot afford to become commoners after living like wealthy robber barons.   Apparently, the INEC will always be subjected to manipulation and rigging of election results because the politicians want to win elections or remain in power.

The 2023 presidential electoral drama was predictable since being in public office is tantamount  to being wealthy.  Hence, despite the promises made by the chairman of INEC, Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu to Nigerians and the world that BVAS will be used to automatically transmit election results, the promise was blatantly ignored, and manual collation was used in determining the outcome of the presidential election.  Apparently, political promises made by public officials are not worth a kobo since the state is the source of private wealth and those seeking to milk the state will take any measure deemed necessary to prevail.  Thus, the INEC has developed a psychological knack for raising the hopes of Nigerians in every presidential election by promising to conduct a free and fair election and then dashing their hopes when election time comes.  The god of money is too powerful and intoxicating to allow Nigerian voters to determine the outcome of an election.  Indeed, the INEC is like a student who never improves academically yet keeps promising his or her parents that he or she will do better in subsequent examinations.  So, like a choreographed and rehearsed dramatic presentation, after every presidential election, the INEC would announce with fanfare that it will do better next time because it has learned from its mistakes. Of course, when election time comes, the same thing repeats itself with INEC officials giving incredulous reasons why the election did not go as promised.

c.  The desire to acquire the make-believe lifestyle forces politicians to operate political parties like cartels as if they are running criminal mafia organizations.  As a result, the political parties are mere instruments or platforms for encouraging and protecting members to do as they wish.  Consequently, party promises, goals, agendas, and plans to develop the country and enhance the quality of life of the citizens are mere slogans to deceive the people into thinking that the politicians care about them. As soon as a political party wins most electoral offices for its members, that is the end of the promises as party members strategize to loot public funds to enrich themselves. Indeed, Nigeria does not have professional political parties, but political cartels intended to provide party members with access to public funds.

d.  Since the political parties operate like financial cartels, they are devoid of ideological orientations.  The parties drift around like dead fish in the middle of the ocean.  The members are not interested in ideologies but are driven to join by promises of having their lifestyles and social statuses enhanced financially.

e.  Due to maintaining a fake lifestyle that their salaries cannot sustain; many politicians jump from one political party to another in a twinkling of an eye.  They do so because they must always gravitate toward the center of power where public funds flow like water in a waterfall.  To remain loyal to a defeated party is tantamount to condemning oneself to poverty and not many Nigerian politicians are willing to do so after building castles made up of 15 to 20 bedrooms in the most expensive parts of Abuja, Lagos, Kaduna, Kano, and other places in the country and overseas.  Loyalty to a political party is tantamount to depriving oneself of the ability to spend holidays in New York City, Washington D.C., Paris, London, Dubai, South Africa, and so on and so forth. Moreover, since most of them send their children to higher educational institutions overseas, they must hunt for the winning party that can provide avenues for them to touch public funds.

f.  Most politicians do not believe in a democracy and neither do they care about the citizens.  Hence, they have no qualms about not building modern hospitals, refurbishing, and modernizing schools, building dormitories for university students, maintaining roads that are crumbling, and providing for public safety.  They do not even care about maintaining the police and other security agencies in the country, apart from protecting themselves. Their lack of faith in democracy and disinterest in the welfare of the citizens is demonstrated by the fact that most of them send their children to school overseas, patronize foreign hospitals, and deposit their funds abroad.  This means that many Nigerian elected and appointed high-level senior officials do not believe in Nigeria.  They are internal colonizers who inherited power from the external colonizers and simply use Nigeria as a mechanism for accumulating private wealth so that they can live luxuriously. So, they scramble to accumulate wealth, buy properties in high-brow areas around the world, and purchase private planes with public funds.

g.  The legislative bodies (the National Assembly and the states’ Houses of Assembly) decided to forgo their independence and become part of the executive branch of government.  Generally, legislators are supposed to be the guardians of the public purse and ensure good governance by controlling and exercising oversight over the executive branch.  In Nigeria, the legislators allow the executive branch to hijack their responsibilities.  As a result, at the national level, the executive branch does whatever it likes with public money while many legislators are mostly interested in padding the budgets so that they can have their personal financial shares included.  This explains why the administrators of the ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) are not thoroughly vetted and neither are they questioned about the integrity of the budgets they submit to the National Assembly for approval.  Many administrators of the MDAs have no respect for the legislators (Senators and Representatives) because they know that legislators are mostly interested in what they can get from the budgets of the government bureaucracies.  It is not surprising that many government officials decline to attend legislative committee hearings when invited because they believe strongly that the legislators are looking for what they can get and nothing more. Samuel Akpan of the Cable News reported:

There is hardly a week at the national assembly without news of government ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) failing to obey summons issued by committees of the Senate and House of Representatives. Outsiders would think the lawmakers are not empowered by law to issue such summons, hence the usual disobedience. But that is far from the case (Akan, 2021, June 16).  

It is impossible to blame former President Mohammadu Buhari’s administration for excessive and wasteful spending without pointing an accusing finger at the National Assembly for enabling the excesses to take place. The National Assembly also bears the burden for the suffering of Nigerians.

At the state level, the legislators forgo their constitutional responsibility and allow the governors to act like emperors.  Hence, governors have almost total control of state budgets and spend as much as they like without legislative oversight.  Instead of serving as the guardians of the public purse, they wait for the governors to give them their own share of the state budgets.  As far as the governors are willing to give a percentage of the budgets to the legislators, the governors are free to dispense the funds the way they see fit.  In some states, the legislators and governors have even attempted to give themselves retirement pensions for life for merely serving one or two terms as state officials.  Who cares about the citizens? 

h.  The clearest evidence that many elected and appointed public officials in Nigeria only care about their personal financial interests, the oil wealth that would have propelled the country into an industrialized and prosperous nation is siphoned off into the private pockets of the officials who manage and coordinate the oil industry and their cronies in the private sector.  Ifeanyi Izeze bemoaned the pathetic situation in the oil industry where the country does not know how much of the oil wealth is stolen by writing:

The federal government does not know; the nation’s apex oil concern and our representative in the oil and gas sector, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) does not know; our security agencies cannot tell; and even the foreign multinational oil companies either do not know also or are trying to play politics with figures of stolen crude for selfish gains and to blackmail the government. Haba! Na so country dey run? (2014, November 6)

i. Anything that touches the oil region is mired in corruption that benefits mostly public officials.  For instance, the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) which is responsible for the infrastructural development of the oil region is mired in corruption because it serves as a financial source for private wealth of public officials.  An audit of the NDDC in 2016 by the National Assembly showed that 80% of the projects carried out by the commission were uncompleted (Perouse de Montclos, 2018, November). Since most public policymakers and public officials responsible for managing the oil industry are scrambling to accumulate as much private wealth as possible from the oil wealth, Nigeria does not care about the massive pollution and the destruction of the oil region.  The lives of the indigenes are endangered since there is no political will to clean up the pollution.  Public officials have no interest in spending billions of dollars to clean the oil region because they want the funds for their private usage. 

j. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) which is now euphemistically regarded as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is nothing but a financial leech that has sucked the financial lifeblood out of the oil wealth to enrich a very tiny number of elites through the phantom fuel subsidy and other gimmicks for over forty years with no accountability to the Nigerian people. Nigeria is the only country that has three or four refineries that do not work, yet billions of dollars are spent to supposedly maintain them. Likewise, Nigeria is probably the only country in the world that produces oil yet spent billions of dollars to import refined petroleum from other countries at exorbitant prices.   No oil producing country has been financially abused and exploited as Nigeria because of the greediness of some of the individuals who manage the oil industry in the country.   These individuals do not believe in Nigeria at all.

k.  It is not by accident that some elected public officials at the state level in some states have attempted to reward themselves with life pensions, houses, cars, and overseas vacations.  These officials know full well that some of their citizens barely eat daily, yet they think that they are so important that they can exploit their states to enrich themselves through the pension system even though they are not civil servants. 

l.  Some public officials and government agencies prefer to do business with the American dollar instead of the Nigerian naira.  Thus, they contribute to the deNigerianization of Nigeria by preferring to do business in foreign currencies instead of using the national currency.  The motive is always to exploit the system to enrich themselves. It is even rumored or alleged that members of the National Assembly that want to lead various committees must cough out certain fees in American dollars to be awarded such key positions. The rumor seems to be corroborated by media report that the senatorial candidates for the President of the Senate position spent thousands of dollars to buy votes.  The Sahara Reporters quoted an insider in the Senate who allegedly said, “The Senate Presidency may trade for between $5,000 and $10,000 or even more. Some of the senators-elects have started playing double game, collecting dollars from the two contending camps and signing up for them,” (“Senators-elect collect bribes In thousands of dollars from Senate President hopefuls, Akpabio, Yari ahead of inauguration,” 2023, June 12). The Sahara Reporters also reported that former governor Abdulaziz Yari spent about $70 million to contest the senatorial presidency.   The online media outlet reported:

Sources told SaharaReporters on Monday that Yari lost at least $72 million in the process as he allegedly gave senators at least $500,000 each to secure their votes. It was however learnt that some of the senators who were paid by Yari ditched him at the last minute, landing the former governor in the foreign hospital (“EXCLUSIVE: Ex-Governor Yari Lands In London Hospital After Losing Senate Presidency To Tinubu’s Candidate, Akpabio Despite Paying Senators Millions Of Dollars,” (2023, June 19).

If the rumors are true, then it is unfortunate because the National Assembly is supposed to be the democratic heart of the country as the members represent various congressional districts.  Yet, they are alleged to be trading in dollars for committee leadership positions. 

m.  Part of the scheme to loot the state dry both at the national and state levels, is the tendency of some elected and appointed high-level officials to exhaust the financial resources of the country and states, ministries, departments, and agencies by spending unnecessarily through creating programs, awarding of contracts, and employing of people as their terms of office are about to end.  In other words, many officials who are leaving office tend to believe that they have an inalienable right to bankrupt the national government, their states, ministries, departments, and agencies before they leave office.  It is through such reckless spending that they enrich themselves.  This is the reason, especially at the state level, many new governors almost always inherit empty treasuries because their predecessors made sure that they carted away every available money before their departure.  In keeping with the tradition of exhausting the treasury before departure from office, Terhemba Daka and Ameh Ochojila reported that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved contracts worth over N100bn while they had only forty days left to hand over to a new administration.  Therefore, it is not strange that the Buhari administration appointed 33 directors in the aviation sector days to the end of the administration.  The hiring ignited anger among workers in the sector (“Protest looms at major Nigerian airports over last minute appointment of 33 directors in aviation sector by former President Buhari,”2023, June 3), If not for self-centeredness, the Buhari administration would have left those positions open for the incoming administration to fill. It seems some former officials wanted to make a final financial killing before they handed over power to the new administration.  This is the sad story of Nigeria where those who are supposed to run the affairs of the country are responsible for inflicting financial hardship on the state and the citizens (Daka and Ochojila, 2023, April 20). 

n.  Not to be outdone, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) or the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) or whatever it is called, is alleged to have secretly hired about 200 people without letting the public to know about it.  The allegation is that most of those employed are the children of the ‘’high and mighty.”  They did not even apply for the positions, but the top leadership of the organization decided to hire them by sending them letters of employment (“EXCLUSIVE: Secret recruitment: Nigeria’s Petroleum Company, NNPC CEO, Kyari employs children Of Ex-President Buhari’s aides, top politicians in managerial positions without due process,” 2023, May 31). It should be noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had carried out a similar illegal employment in the early years of the Buhari administration.  Meanwhile, the indigenes of the oil region are starving and being choked to death by lack of employment in the sector while they are bombarded with poisonous chemicals generated by oil and gas exploration.  The NNPC or NNPCL has never shown any interest in enhancing the quality of life of the inhabitants of the oil region.   

o. The Olympic Gold medal-winning stratagem to hoodwink Nigerians goes to those Nigerian public officials in the Ministry of Aviation who were involved in the Ethiopian Airline plane that was painted as belonging to the Nigeria Air, even though it was chartered from the Ethiopians.  The plotters wanted to create the illusion that the national airline was right on target to meet the deadline for being activated as the nation’s airline.  However, the plotters failed to change the registration number of the plane to reflect Nigerian ownership, hence discerning Nigerians caught the trick very quickly and informed the world that it was a sham.  The Ethiopians might have been amused at the level Nigerian public officials can go to gain an advantage over the Nigerian state (“Nigerian Federal Lawmakers Confirm SaharaReporters’ Story, Declare Launch Of ‘Nigeria Air’ By Buhari Government A Fraud,” 2023, May 6).  It should be noted that the former minister of Aviation alleged that the airline project was prevented from materializing due to demands made by some members of the national legislature for five percent of the shares of the airline. The legislators rejected the accusation.

p. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in the last eight or nine years, has been the coordinating center for the alleged financial decimation of the country.  Perhaps, colonized by a very greedy cabal, the CBN bare-facedly initiated policies, programs, and actions that have impoverished the Nigerian people while enabling a few individuals to become billionaires and multimillionaires.  One of the rumors or allegations that is floating around is that most of the loans the CBN loaned to Nigeria were actually funds owned by the Nigerian government.  This means that Nigeria, under President Muhammadu Buhari was simply borrowing its own money and enabling some individuals to become very rich in the process.  The funds for the loans were allegedly generated through the Stamp Tax but were treated as private funds, thereby forcing the Nigerian government to borrow them.  Another allegation is that as soon as some Nigerians detected the anomaly of the Stamp Tax, the name was immediately changed to Electronic Transfer fees. A possible third allegation or rumor is that the naira change program was merely a sham even though huge sums of money was spent for the exercise.

In overall, some public officials in NNPC and CBN and their cronies who make up the invisible cabal won triple Olympic Gold Medals for displaying an unprecedented level of greed to the point of literally turning a very rich country like Nigeria that would have been competing with South Korea, Taiwan, India, France, Britain, and so forth, in technological and economic development into the poverty capital of the world.

Second, sensing that both elected and appointed public officials do not care about the country, except for themselves and their immediate families, an increasing number of citizens decided to adopt the extravagant lifestyle too to create an illusion of being wealthy.  This is in line with the view that if you can’t beat them, you join them. As a result, they throw away any sense of morality and ethics and adopt Machiavellian tactics in order to survive.  Evidently, lying, cunning, tricking, telling of tall tales, acting, kidnapping, killing, intimidating, and thieving have become part of the standard operating procedures in Nigeria. It is very difficult today to believe anything anybody says.  Basically, the GOD OF MONEY NOW RULES NIGERIA.

Third, due to living beyond their means, some people have the habit of invading other people’s landed properties and asking for compensation as a form of community or neighborhood tax.  Thus, in many parts of Nigeria, after an individual might have legally bought a piece of land, a group of touts who sometimes call themselves “area boys” will appear on the property and demand compensation as a form of tax for land that does not belong to them.  Sometimes, even chiefs get into this tricking ang intimidation game.  They would wait until someone buys a piece of land.  After the land has been purchased and the individual might have started putting up a building, a chief and his boys will suddenly appear to inform the owner of the land that he or she needs to pay to use the land after the individual has already paid for the property.  This is why it is necessary for any Nigerian who wishes to buy a piece of land to be careful, otherwise, the individual might end up losing the property or paying two or three times for the same piece of land.  Even though the act is criminal, the police rarely intervene to stop the fraud.

a. As part of the effort to get free money to maintain the fake lifestyle, some landowners sometimes intentionally sell the same piece of land to two or three people at the same time.  The purchasers are then forced to fight each other to the point that the richest among them might decide to pay extra money to gain an advantage over the other buyers.  By playing this money trick, the original landowner ends up receiving two or three payments for the same piece of land.  This game sometimes ends in death if the buyers are doggedly determined to ensure their rights by fighting to prevail over the land.

b. There are increasing cases whereby family members sell houses belonging to other family members without even informing the rightful owners.  When the rightful owners realize that their properties have been sold without their permission by some family members, the fracas sometimes results in the police getting involved and making the situations even more complicated as they demand bribes from both sides of the issue.

Fourth, the need to live a good life has also compelled some family members to prey on their own children, brothers, sisters, uncles, and aunts who live overseas.  Increasingly, when some of those who live overseas send money to their trusted family members to help them to buy land and build houses for them, the funds are commandeered the way some public officials and civil servants commandeer public funds.  The funds are either used for other purposes instead of building the houses.  There have been cases in which some trusted family members send fake pictures of houses being built to their family members overseas to deceive and encourage them to continue to send money even though no houses were being built at home.

a. There are also cases whereby family members take the money sent by their relatives overseas and use the money to build their own houses without any atom of guilt about the fraudulent act.  Some Nigerians living overseas who sent money to their loved ones to build houses for them or invest in businesses have been killed by their family members when they return to Nigeria to find out what happened to the houses or businesses, they have been investing in. Imagine the case of a Nigerian lady who worked tirelessly in the U.S. to send money to her brother to build a house for her for years.  She was devastated when she visited Nigeria and found out that after spending so much money, the house was still uncompleted, and the brother could not explain what happened to all the funds she has been sending for the house project.  To add salt to the injury, other family members remained quiet while the brother perpetrated the fraud against her (“US based woman bewails over ‘uncompleted’ house brother built for her in Nigeria,” 2023, April 20).

b. It is increasingly sad in Nigeria that many people have lost any sense of guilt for defrauding their own family members just because they want to live an exaggerated lifestyle without working for the money.  Imagine a case in which a couple in Lagos attempted to defraud their relatives living overseas of N5 million by staging a false kidnapping incident to compel the relatives to send them money.  This case shows clearly that the GOD OF MONEY RULES Nigeria since the wife of the man who plotted the self-kidnapping plan was making about N150,000 from each of her clients as a massage therapist. Yet she went along with the husband to defraud their relatives overseas (“Couple arrested for faking kidnap to extort N5m from UK relatives.” 2023, April 30). This attempted fraud also highlights the fallacy that many Nigerians hold about the view that anyone who lives overseas is rich.  It is unfortunate that millions of Nigerians assume that anyone who lives in the U.S. or Britain or France or Germany or Turkey or Russia or Spain or Italy must be rich.  This is why they incessantly beg for money from their relatives who live overseasIn fact, millions of Nigerians have become shameless beggars. Azuka Onwuka wrote an interesting article about the begging epidemic in Nigeria.  He noted, “It seems that begging has been normalised in Nigeria. It is ubiquitous. Virtually everybody is begging, irrespective of status” (2023, June 13).

 It should be noted that just as there are rich and poor people in Nigeria, there are also rich and poor people in the USA, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Holland, Australia, Brazil, and so on and so forth.  Consequently, some Nigerians who live overseas are doing well while some are struggling to even have money to pay their rents and other bills.  Some Nigerians overseas do some of the dirtiest and back-breaking jobs that most Nigerians will not do at home simply to survive.  Yet some of their relatives in Nigeria keep pressuring them to send money as if they own banks overseas.  Due to a lack of correct information, many Nigerians are not aware that sometimes it takes about five to ten years or more to simply have a work permit to get a job legally in most foreign countries. It takes a lot of sacrifices to get work permits and in some cases GREEN CARDs to qualify for any government program or obtain certain kinds of jobs.  There are some Nigerians who have spent twenty or more years and are still struggling to get GREEN CARDs in the United States.

Fifth, some crooks who are seeking to get rich without doing anything substantively played on the sensibilities of some Nigerians by promising to double their earnings if they contribute to a financial scheme in which payments are made on a regular basis as more people contribute to the plan.  The financial schemes are known as:

Ponzi schemes, [which is] also known as pyramid sales schemes, are a money laundering system where investors are lured in with the promise of high returns on investment after a specified period. The system runs in a somewhat cyclic fashion by paying old investors with deposits of new investors. Usually, this cycle becomes unsustainable when the backlog of old investors eligible for payments exceeds the investments coming into the system (Dan-Awoh, 2022, July 22).

  Generally, the crooks would make the initial payments to their clients, who get excited by the sudden influx of money and then encourage their friends and family members to contribute to the plan.  Thus, as more people contribute financially to the plan, the crooks would suddenly disappear with millions of naira without paying the contributors who wait patiently to be rewarded for having contributed to the plan.  In 2016, about three million Nigerians invested N18bn in the Ponzi scheme (Deborah Dan-Awoh, 2022, July 22).  Some Nigerians have exhausted their savings because they fell prey to the Ponzi schemes and rendered themselves penniless.  Some victims become depressed and suicidal having lost all their savings to the fraudsters.

Sixth, the mad rush to make quick and miraculous money, after some elected and appointed public officials and civil servants have set the stage for doing so, some Nigerians no longer have qualms about accumulating wealth through the killing of their own mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, wives, girlfriends, boyfriends, husbands, sons, daughters, and friends through money-making rituals.  The temptation to acquire quick wealth is tempting to the extent that some young people now engage in ritual killings of their loved ones.  A particularly painful case was the three young boys who killed a girlfriend of one of them and burnt her body. Ishola Oludare reported, “There was pandemonium in Oke Aregba area of Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, after some teenage boys were caught burning the head of a girl, said to be in a relationship with one of them, for money ritual”(2022, January 29).  Some Nigerians killed their girlfriends and mothers and then had sex with the corpses as part of the process of completing the ritual to accumulate wealth magically. An 18-year-old Samuel Akpobome allegedly confessed to killing his mother and having sex with the body by saying:

I wanted to use her (Christiana) for money rituals. I strangled her; she was sleeping when I strangled her at about 5am. I was advised by a native doctor in Oghara to kill her. After killing her, I slept with her. The native doctor told me to do so and keep her corpse for two days.

“The native doctor told me to kill my mother and sleep with her corpse. But he did not tell me the number of days to sleep with her. My mother did not offend me. I killed her because of money (Okere, 2018, November 8).

Seventh, today drug addiction is ravishing some young Nigerians because some people want to make money fast, regardless of the negative side effects that mind-altering drugs have on their consumers and society. To make money fast and live like millionaires and billionaires, some Nigerians are trafficking dangerous addictive drugs.  As a result, an increasing number of young men and women are becoming addicted to illegal hard drugs.  No week goes by without a Nigerian being caught somewhere in the world for trafficking in illegal drugs.

Eighth, the god of money rules Nigeria with supreme authority.  As a result, it is difficult to trust anyone, even your own workers.  Increasingly, some Nigerians have been violently killed by their drivers, gatekeepers, and house workers who are looking for ways to make quick money as the god of money directs them to do.  Two of the most heart-wrenching cases involved Mr. and Mrs.  Kehinde Fatinoye of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Mr. Femi Egbeolua and his wife. Mr. and Mrs Fatinoye and their son were allegedly murdered by a group of killers arranged by their driver.  The driver and his four conspirators killed and burnt the bodies of the couple while they threw the lifeless body of their son into a river in Abeokuta, Ogun State ( (Akintolan, 2023, February 10).The second brutal murder involved the killing of Mr. Femi Egbeolua and his wife Funmi in Lagos by their driver while the man was preparing to go overseas for medical treatment.  The driver was alleged to have connived with another worker in the house to kill the couple.  The attempt to kill a maid failed because she survived the ordeal and identified the driver as the main suspect (Usman, 2023, March 25).Some Nigerians have been killed by their gatemen who are supposed to protect them.

Ninth, the law enforcement and security forces are facing challenges due to a lack of financial accountability and communication between the senior officers and the non-commissioned officers. The most worrisome development is that both police officers and soldiers complained that sometimes their salaries and allowances are not paid on time.  Sometimes, they are partially paid without any convincing explanation by the senior officers.   Claire Mom reported:

Some soldiers of the Nigerian Army have expressed concerns over the delay in the payment of their July salaries.  This is not the first time there have been reports on soldiers complaining over delays in the payment of their salaries. In January, there were reports of soldiers being owed salaries, but the Nigerian Army had dismissed the claims (Mom, 2022, August 5).

Iro Dan Fulani reported the frustration of some Nigerian soldiers, particularly the case of one solder:

In the first few months of his deployment, he received a monthly allowance of N30,000. Suddenly, over a year ago, even as the war against the insurgents intensified, his allowance was cut to N15,000. No explanations have been given to him and his colleagues about the pay slash.

Unlike before, our allowances are not being paid in full. Instead of the N30,000 monthly allowance we used to get, we now get N15,000. Somebody is sitting comfortably in Abuja, stealing our money, and we are here facing Boko Haram fire every day. God will judge them,” said the soldier in a voice thick with despondency (Fulani, 2014, May 5).

Apart from salary issues, the working conditions for both the members of the Nigerian Police Force and the Nigerian Army are not encouraging.  Generally, police officers and soldiers lack appropriate equipment to perform their duties.  No wonder, the World Internal Security and Police Index International (WISPI) in 2016 rated the Nigerian Police Force as the “worst in the world” (Ikuteyijo, 2022, March 22).

b. In Nigeria, as part of the effort to maintain a lifestyle that their official salaries cannot sustain, some police officers even arrest and detain suspects in civil cases involving citizens.  Generally, in almost every country, civil cases are treated differently from criminal cases.  While the police are expected to carry out an arrest in criminal cases, the police have no such automatic rights in civil cases.  This means that if two individuals have an issue, they are supposed to go to court and file civil suits to address their grievances. In other words, in civil cases, complainants are expected to sue the defendants in court and seek redress or compensation. However, if a civil case has criminal implications, the police can arrest a suspect, pending full investigation.  In Nigeria, it is not unusual for police officers to arrest an individual for a civil case involving two individuals or communities.  They do so when one individual has paid them to purposely detain another person to inform the individual that the other individual has the money and power to influence the police to act on his or her behalf.  As a result, some wealthy Nigerians use the police to punish those who oppose or challenge them by paying some police officers to arrest, beat and detain them.  It is not unusual in Nigeria for an individual to be locked up for two or more months, even years for a civil case just because the other individual had instructed the police to teach the person a lesson.  In fact, it should be recalled that Raymond Abbas, (aka Hushpuppy) allegedly paid former Deputy Commissioner of Police Abba Kyari money to detain an individual who betrayed him on a financial deal that went wrong in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Reuters reported, “Kyari was alleged to have taken money from Hushpuppi as a payment for arranging to have one of his accomplices locked up in Nigeria after a dispute among the conspirators” (“Nigerian Police chief indicted in U.S. over ‘Hushpuppi’ fraud,” 2021, July29).  It should be noted that this case has not been resolved yet.  

c. On a weekly basis, somewhere in Nigeria, a police officer is arresting and detaining an individual for a civil dispute because the complainant had paid and instructed the police to teach the helpless victim a lesson.  Similarly, it is not unusual for someone to pay the police to arrest an individual who legitimately owns a house in a very desirable neighborhood where a big man or woman wants the land by all means necessary.  While the police detains the legitimate owner, the rich man or woman would send a bulldozer to demolish the person’s property and begin to build on the land, with little or no consequences.  Many police officers flaunt the law because they are scrambling to accumulate wealth. 

Tenth, the Christian church is increasingly a big business in Nigeria and probably throughout Black Africa and church leaders compete with politicians to acquire wealth by any means necessary. They do so because many of them are motivated by a desire to live an exaggerated lifestyle.  As a result, many Christian pastors are some of the richest elites in Nigeria.  Some of them do not want to wait until they get to heaven to enjoy a luxurious never-ending life in paradise.  They want to enjoy heaven on earth.  Hence, they psychologically pressure their church members through preaching selected passages in the Bible to force them to give tithes.  Through such efforts, many pastors who prefer to call themselves bishops, apostles, and prophets build huge mansions like politicians and high-level public officials and live luxuriously.  Apart from building huge houses, they also buy expensive clothes and cars as if they are Hollywood actors and actresses.  Some Nigerian pastors are not even happy having huge mansions and expensive cars.  So, they buy private planes.  In addition, some of them have invested in off-shore businesses to boost their financial standing for themselves and their children. Thus, it seems that most Nigerian and Black African pastors do not believe in paradise in the godly realm since their heaven is on Earth, and they want to enjoy all the things paradise can offer on Earth.  Meanwhile, they tell their church members to wait for the coming of the lord.

Some of the pastors that have not made it financially engage in satanic rituals in order to  increase their financial standing to enable them to live like millionaires.  Thus, some pastors go as far as engaging in human sacrifices and burying human body parts in their churches to compel the congregation to donate money generously without thinking.  In fact, some pastors have been arrested and charged with killing people with the intent to concoct money-making rituals (“Pastor kills secret lover for ritual purpose in Ogun,” 2-18, April3).  The incidents of pastors killing people for ritual purposes is common throughout black Africa.  Some pastors feel that being a “pastor” is insufficient psychologically, financially, and socially to satisfy the kind of lifestyle they desire, so they refer to themselves as bishops and prophets.  Other members of the churches preferred to be called evangelists, apostles, and overseers.  The words “humility” and “simplicity” that are generally associated with religion and spirituality do not exist in Nigeria and Black Africa. Nigerians who believe that their pastors will lead them to heaven need to reflect deeply on their lives.

It seems that many Nigerian pastors enter the priestly occupation just to make money and live large like business tycoons and politicians.  As a result, many of them protested when the Federal Government instituted a lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.  The pastors reacted angrily because the locked-down affected their incomes negatively, hence, they pleaded to be allowed to continue their services despite the danger of spreading the virus in close quarters.  When the government refused to allow them to open churches for services, some pleaded with their congregations to send money to them by the internet (“Pastor Ashimolowo sparks outrage for asking members to pay offerings online amid COVID-19 lockdown.” 2020, March 25). Thus, many Nigerian pastors worship money and not God.

Eleventh, since the ruling elites are interested in the maximization of their self-interest through pilfering of public funds, insufficient attention is being paid to educating Nigerian children because the funds allocated for public education at both the national and state levels are insufficient to enhance the quality of education.  Politicians and public officials generally do not care about the dilapidated public primary and secondary school facilities in many parts of the country.  Moreover, they have no concern at all about the children of the masses as far as their own children receive the best education possible.  As a result, between 8 and 20 million children, depending on the sources of information, are not going to school in the country (“What is the number of Nigeria’s out-of-school children,” 2022, September 11). The situation is worse in Islamic northern Nigeria where religious feelings tend to foster anti-Western education posture.  The former Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II alluded to the lack of commitment to Western education in the Islamic North.  Chijioke Jannah of the Daily Post reported, “Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, has said the abhorrence of Western education in the name of practicing Islam has doomed northern part of Nigeria into becoming the poorest region in the country.” (2017, April 5).

Twelfth, since the ruling elite is interested in the maximization of self-interest through pilfering of public funds from the state, insufficient attention is being paid to educating Nigerian children because the budget for public education is not enough to enhance the quality of children’s education, both at the national and state levels.  Thus, between 8 and 20 million children, depending on the sources of information, are not going to school in the country (“What is the number of Nigeria’s out-of-school children,” 2022, September 11, Nigeria Tribune. https://tribuneonlineng.com/what-is-the-number-of-nigerias-out-of-school-children/).  The situation is worse in Islamic northern Nigeria where anti-Western education posture seems to discourage massive investment in the education of the children of the masses.  The former Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II alluded to the problem by sa The number of out-of-school children is alarming but there is no serious effort being made to stop the dangerous trend since the elite sends their children to expensive private schools.  Sadly, public funds that would have been allocated for building schools, buying equipment, and training teachers to educate the children of the masses are converted into personal wealth by members of the ruling elite. It seems the presidency, governors, representatives, senators, local government chairs, officials of the ministries of education, and some school administrators have closed their eyes to thimportance of education in raising children and building a progressive nation.

Twelfth, the desire to live an inflated life has negatively impacted the educational sector generally.  Some of those responsible for managing the public educational system, including vice-chancellors, registrars, provosts, chairs, professors, lecturers, bursars, principals, headmasters, teachers, and education officials from the ministries of education today have forsaken their professional responsibilities and no longer care about the quality of education as they scramble to accumulate funds to build houses and save huge sums of money in order to live like millionaires and billionaires as the politicians and appointed high-government officials are noted for.  In other words, some of those in the educational sector do not want to be left behind as others invade public treasuries to amass personal wealth.  They devise various ways to exploit their students and divert funds meant for academic enhancement, infrastructural development and rehabilitation, and equipment enrichment into their private ownership.  This explains why throughout Nigeria, most primary and secondary schools are like refugee camps set up in war zones.  They are unkept with leaky roofs, broken desks and chairs, and poor teaching and laboratory equipment. In some schools, the students sit on the floor because there are no desks and chairs.

It should be noted that the breakdown in public schools started at the time some former public officials began to build expensive private schools.  Therefore, it could be argued that some former public officials looted from the public educational sector to build expensive private schools to which only those who are financially endowed could send their children to attend.  Therefore, it is not surprising that some of the best universities, colleges of technology, and secondary and primary schools today are for-profit-making private schools while public schools continued to be sacrificed due to lack of interest by public officials to maintain them.

In the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s when Nigerians lived modestly and manage their existence based on their incomes and business earnings, public schools (primary and secondary schools and universities) were some of the best not only in Nigeria but in the world.  It is doubtful whether Kings College and Queens College in Lagos, Government College Umuahia, Hope Waddle Training Institute in Calabar, Government Comprehensive Secondary School in Port Harcourt, and so on and so forth of today can compete with the same schools of the 1960s and 1970s.  The surprising thing is that there was less money in the 1970s and more money today, yet educational facilities in the 1970s were much better than the same facilities today.  The difference could be explained by the fact that today, accumulating private wealth from the public treasury is the culture of doing educational business in Nigeria. In the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, Nigerian students were treated with much regard and properly taken care of.  Today, they are treated as FINANCIAL COMMODITIES that warrant exploitation.  This is a major contributing factor toward the treatment of university students as exploitable refugees that must be cramped up in ill-equipped and overcrowded dormitories and hazardous private houses.

Like some public officials, some private school owners expect parents to pay their children’s school fees in American dollars instead of the Nigerian naira.  In addition, some private schools charge all kinds of unexplainable fees, thereby making some of the schools even more expensive than private schools in Britain, France, and the United States.  The proprietors of these private schools are bastardizing Nigeria by forcing Nigerians to pay school fees in foreign currency, thereby violating Nigerian sovereignty. 

Neglected and abandoned by the state and school authorities, many male students join destructive cults or gangs where they engage in violent activities and illegal drug dealing to earn income and pretend to live the extravagant lifestyle.  Many female students, especially in the universities, decided to gain membership in the world’s oldest profession in order to make money and live the extravagant lifestyle like celebrities. Thus, corruption is a major problem in the educational sector. For instance, Premium Times reported four cases of corruption involving public higher educational institutions. The first case of corruption deals with N800 million in the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta (FUNAAB), allegedly involving the Vice Chancellor, Pro-Chancellor, and the Bursar.  The second case deals with the misappropriation of N24 million at the Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA) allegedly involving the vice chancellor and the bursar.  The third case involved the University of Calabar dealing with the allegations of fraud, forgery, and threat to life filed against the bursar.  The fourth case involved the Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU) in which a former vice chancellor was alleged to have engaged in fraud amounting to N3.5bn (Onyeji, 2017, March 19).

Thirteenth, while the Arabs, Iranians, Pakistanis, Indonesians, and other Muslim societies are sending their female children to school in large numbers, in Nigeria, the Islamic elite prefer to continue to rear female children of the masses for marriage purposes only and frown at sending them to school en masse.  As a result, girls between the ages 12 and 15 are married to men who sometimes already have two or more wives.  Some men who marry young girls do not even have the means to take care of the children they already have given birth to yet are encouraged under the cloak of religion to marry more young girls and born more children.  The foresighted former Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II noted the problem. while other northern Islamic leaders remained quiet.  Again, Chijioke Jannah reported, “Going further, he questioned the right of people in having more children in the region without having the resource to take care of them” (2017, April 5).  The lackadaisical attitude toward the education of female children is a threat to the national security of Nigeria.  The reason is that it contributes to poverty.  Moreover, it creates a sociological imbalance between females in the South and the North. Thus, while female children in the North are not allowed to be children and go to school in large numbers, female children in the South are going to school in large numbers.  The implication is that many females in southern Nigeria are increasingly educated to become professionals, public officials, specialists, and business entrepreneurs while those in the North are compelled to remain behind.   Therefore, as more young women in the South are educated and become successful in various occupations, they are more likely to take care of their children and families while many of their counterparts in the Islamic North will be ill-equipped to take care of their children if their husbands pass away. Similarly, more women in southern Nigeria will be able to generate wealth on their own personal effort than women in Islamic northern Nigeria.  It is necessary for the Islamic elite in northern Nigeria to emulate Islamic leaders in Arabia and other parts of the Islamic world who are sending their female children to school in large numbers instead of restricting them to be married at earlier ages as the Taliban is attempting to do in Afghanistan.

Fourteenth, as part of the effort by the elite to discourage mass education, it could be said that some Fulani elites continue to encourage nomadic cattle herding where a large proportion of their masses are expected not to go to school but take care of the cattle that belong to rich individuals in society.  As a result, many Fulani herders, their wives, and children are uneducated.  They are expected to roam about with cattle belonging to rich people who do not want to invest robustly to take care of their cattle business.  The poor herders cannot even send their wives and children to school, instead, roam with them and possibly sleep in forest camps as if they were operating in the 18th and 19th centuries.   While the poor herders suffer all kinds of indignities since they are not sufficiently compensated for their services, the rich cattle owners pocket the wealth generated through the sufferings of the cattle herders.  Therefore, it could be argued that the anger that has built up over decades of marginalization, discrimination, and lack of attention contributes to the bloody violence that some herders are carrying out to punish Nigerian society for neglecting them.  It is time the Nigerian government compels all cattle business owners (whether Fulani or not) to invest in their business of raising cattle by establishing ranches and taking good care of the herders.    It should be noted that many cattle owners today are not necessarily Fulani in Nigeria.  In short, it is time for cattle barons in Nigeria to stop exploiting and treating herders as if they are sub-human beings who have no right whatsoever to aspire to a higher level of living like others in society. The feudalistic cattle breeding system must give way to allow children of herders to go to school.

Fifteenth, as a result of irrational behavior emanating from the exaggerated lifestyle that corruption has foisted on society, marriage has become a financial killer for most young people.  Nigerians are spending exorbitantly to wed as if nothing else matter.  First, they spend considerably to carry out traditional marriage ceremonies.  Then, they arrange for a more expensive Christian or Islamic weddings that resemble carnivals.  Thus, marriage has become a high-stake financial game that many young men and women cannot keep up with.  The consequence is that many young men and women cannot get married early because they do not have the financial wherewithal to carry out a talk-of-the-town kind of wedding.  Since most young men cannot afford to acquire the luxuries of life, marriage is being delayed. The desire to put up a grand wedding seems to encourage some men to embezzle public funds since that is the only way they can afford to create the image of an exaggerated lifestyle. Increasingly, as money has become the god of Nigeria, invited guests to wedding ceremonies are now being compelled to donate cash rather than material gifts ( Adegbesan, 2023, June 12). This means that any invited guest who attends a wedding ceremony must cough out money as a gift.  It is MONEY, MONEY, and MORE MONEY.   It is predictable that it is mostly those who have money to give that are likely to be invited so that they can donate money generously.  SHAME!

The political and business elites are responsible for creating the Las Vegas kind of glamorous marriages in Nigeria.  They do so by sometimes arranging to marry in Dubai or London or Paris.  In Nigeria, it is not unusual for the elites to even hire private planes to ferry people to wedding locations where very glamorous marriages are conducted either for themselves or their children.  Some high-level public officers even go as far as buying houses worth N300 million or more for their sons who are getting married.  By setting such high financial trends, other Nigerians try to emulate them by arranging for glitzy wedding ceremonies and in the process, pilfer public funds. No wonder, some Nigerian parents are mow moving beyond the traditional list of requirements for dowry payments to include other items.  Elizabeth Adegbesan of Vanguard reported:

Also, Economy & Lifestyle has discovered a growing trend where parents expand dowry lists to include some strange items not known to the marriage culture. Is it not surprising that, these days, dowry lists include elcetric generators, refrigerators, motor bikes, bundles of zinc, wheel barrows and many other items that are not culturally linked to marriage rites. Our discovery is that all these are due to the deterioriating economy (Adegbesan, 2023, July 17)..

Sixteenth, during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, when a person passes away, in the Middle Belt and southern Nigeria, the deceased was buried within two or three days, except if the individual was a king or queen or a traditional high chief.  Today, most non-Muslims want to carry out carnival-like funerals to bury their loved ones. As a result, it is now an accepted part of the exaggerated social value system for those that have passed away to be kept in mortuaries for months, if not years, while the families struggle to accumulate large sums of money to organize grand funerals.  Although very unnecessary, Nigerians have developed this crazy idea that millions of naira must be spent to bury family members that have passed away simply to boost the ego.  The pressure to accumulate such funds forces many people who work in the public sector to loot public funds.   Some engage in other criminal activities to obtain funds to carry out funerals. Thus, death in Nigeria today is like a curse to those families that cannot bury their loved ones in grand funerals. The Christian church in Nigeria is guilty of encouraging such excesses as some pastors demand certain privileges to conduct funeral services.

 Thankfully, the Islamic North refuses to buy into the craziness in the Christian South and the Middle Belt.  Hence, among Muslims, the deceased is buried a day after death in a simple funeral ceremony, regardless of the social status of the individual.  It does not matter whether the individual is a head of state or an emir or not, as soon as the individual passes away, he or she is buried the following day in a simple funeral ceremony.  In the Christian regions of Nigeria, large sums of money are spent to bury a high-status individual.   This forces people to devise tricky ways to accumulate money for funerals.

The Nigerian government has not taken measures to stop this unnecessary extravagant and ego-boosting nonsense that puts undue pressure on Nigerian families.  The reason the government has failed to do so is because it was some members of the ruling elite and their colleagues in the private sector that started the practice. 

Seventeenth, to maintain an inflated lifestyle, the costs of all contracts in Nigeria are inflated to enable some people acquire additional income to boost their financial holdings.  The reason is that many public officials who are responsible for approving government contracts, those in the finance offices that must do the paperwork, the political or administrative bosses, including the ministers, permanent secretaries, and directors of the agencies must get their cuts or kickbacks from the contracts.  Having done so, those awarded contracts will then cut their share of the contracts before the execution or implementation of the contracts. Sometimes, the contractors simply abandon the contracts after pocketing what remains of the funds allocated for the contracts. This is responsible for the numerous uncompleted projects throughout Nigeria.  It is a recurring experience in Nigeria and has become the culture of doing business in the country. 

Generally, contracts are awarded to those contractors who are willing to play the game of 10 percent, i.e., giving back ten percent to the officials who signed off on the contracts.   Any Nigerian contractor that wants to do a thorough contractual project that is not willing to make cuts or grease the palms of some officials is most certainly not going to be awarded a public contract.  Only those who are willing to play the game are most likely to be awarded contracts, regardless of whether they qualify or not.  The motivational factor is that the public officials who approve contracts must maintain their inflated financial status by making sure that they are able to increase their wealth to live like millionaires and billionaires.

Eighteenth, retirement benefits that are due to those who have meritoriously completed their years of services and have retired are treated as free money by some public officials who supervise and manage retirement accounts.  As a result, instead of paying retirees diligently, the tendency in most of Nigeria’s public bureaucracies at the local, state, and national levels, is to intentionally withhold or delay payments and keep the funds in the banks to yield interests that benefit the public officials who manage retirement accounts.  The more funds or benefits are withheld, the more money the public officials gain from interests on the principal accounts.  Sometimes, retirement funds are embezzled outright by some public officials to increase their personal financial standings. Generally, due to lack of concern, retirees beg for years before they get benefits that are rightly theirs.  Sometimes, the retirement funds are intentionally withheld hoping that the beneficiaries would pass away.  If the beneficiaries pass away, in some cases, the funds are automatically converted into personal accounts by some public officials who coordinate retirement programs.  The retirement system is very callous and deadly to retirees.

Nineteenth, a noticeable sad commentary on the inflated lifestyle in Nigeria is that continuity in government is not necessarily encouraged.  For instance, if a local government chair or a governor embarks on a project that is likely to benefit the citizenry but is unable to complete the project during his or her tenure of office, the incoming local government chair or governor may hesitate to support the project.  Several projects are abandoned throughout the country because the incoming political leaders are not enthusiastic about completing projects initiated by their predecessors. In their study, Okey Nwanekeze and Walpole Nwanguma cited previous studies which indicated that there were about 4,000 uncompleted or abandoned projects belonging to the Federal Government of Nigeria that amounted to about N300 billion in the 1990s.  They identified “wrong estimates, inflation, inadequate planning, poor risk management, inadequate finance, etc.,” (2019). It is arguable that the primary motivation for the unwillingness to complete carry-over projects is that an incoming administrator, be it at the local or state, or national government level, might feel that he or she is not likely to gain personally from a project initiated by a predecessor.  Thus, instead of bringing the project to fruition, the new political boss may allow the project to waste away so that he or she can create his or her own projects that are likely to maximize financial gains for the individual personally.  Therefore, for many public officials in Nigeria, the concept of continuity in government is not financially a marketable idea because it short-changes the ability of the newcomer to create his or her own financial pet projects.  New projects allow for the maximization of personal rewards as the budgets are padded in such a manner that provide sufficient financial percentages that could be subtracted from the funds so that the newcomer can build palatial mansions and buy properties around the country. The saddest examples of the lack of continuity in project management are the abandoned Tenapia Teampark and Obudu Ranch in Cross Rivers State.  The parks were developed to meet international standards and tourists flocked to the parks.  Unfortunately, as soon as Governor Donald Duke left following the expiration of his term of office, the parks were left to rot.  Today, the parks an eye sore for Cross River State and Nigeria.

Twentieth, similarly, an unfortunate byproduct of living beyond one’s financial capability in Nigeria, because of an exaggerated lifestyle that the ruling elite has adopted is that Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) have been sacrificed for political expediency in the civil and public services.  This allows for administrative impunity to take place in the public sector.  Consequently, in Nigeria, it is rare to hear of a senior public official voluntarily quitting a position following a scandal or a conflict-of-interest situation.  Nigerian public officials rarely resign regardless of the level of scandal that they are involved.  For instance, in Britain, public officials resign as soon as their positions have been compromised to allow for new officials to take over. As a result, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced several criticisms, he was compelled to resign.  Similarly, former British Prime Minster Liz Truss resigned barely six weeks in office.  In Nigeria, President Mohammadu Buhari never thought about resigning after spending many months in a British hospital.   Similarly, the first heads of the army, navy, air force, and police in Buhari’s administration refused to resign after completing their terms of service.  Nigerians had to put pressure on President Buhari to replace them.  It took the president a very long to make the decision to let them go.  Throughout President Buhari’s administration, the only individual who resigned due to a scandal involving the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC)certification was Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, the former Minister of Finance.  She quit the ministerial position because she had a British background and decided to leave.  Other Nigerians stay put, regardless of the compromising nature of the scandal that involves them. Nigerian public officials tend to treat their official positions as God-given personal positions and rarely quit. The reason Nigerian public officials find it difficult to resign when they have been compromised or involved in scandalous circumstances is because the financial stakes are just too high since the primary means of accumulating private wealth in order to live an extravagant lifestyle is to remain in government.  To quit a government position is tantamount to status degradation, both politically and financially. 

Twenty-first, in trying to live like the politicians and public officials, young musicians and movie actors and actresses imitate the Hollywood crowd and entertainers in the United States.  They want to live in huge mansions and buy expensive cars to show off their newly acquired status. They want to be addressed as CELEBRITIES and speak recklessly without caring about the consequences. 

The funniest aspect of the celebrity culture in Nigeria is that almost all the movie actresses and music video models seemed to have originated from a planet made of light-skinned women and most of the men appeared to have originated from a dark-skinned planet, even though both are from the same country.  Some of the young men too are bleaching extensively to join their female counterparts.  It is not unusual to see a musician who was dark-skinned suddenly becoming light-skinned.  This says a lot about the fakeness of the Nigerian celebrity lifestyle.  Moreover, imitating their Western counterparts, an increasing number of the so-called celebrities are now dabbling in addictive hard drugs and other destructive habits, all in the name of being regarded as “CELEBRITIES.” They tend to copy the most negative aspects of the Western celebrity lifestyle without thinking about the consequences to themselves, their families, and the Nigerian society.  To consolidate their statuses and financial wellbeing, many of them are alleged to have joined Western secret societies. It is pathetic and unfortunate.

Section II: Unnecessary Title

To live an exaggerated lifestyle as the corrupted culture demands, people inflate their egos.  In Nigeria, many people do so by acquiring titles and always wanting to be addressed in a titled manner.  Indeed, Nigeria is a land of titles and vaunted ego. It is necessary to identify the ways Nigerians boost their ego with titles.

First, it seems that many Nigerians feel undervalued without a title, hence, they deploy various tactics to acquire one and wish to be addressed as such.

Second, in other parts of the world, Christian pastors are happy with the positions they hold in their church hierarchies, hence have no qualms being addressed as pastors.  In Nigeria, it seems that the word “pastor” is too belittling for many Christian leaders.  As a result, many pastors prefer to be addressed as bishops, overseers, and prophets.  Those below the pastors in the organizational hierarchy prefer to be addressed as evangelists and apostles because any other title is below their dignity.  Thus, Nigeria has multitudes of prophets.  To maintain the falsehood that they are prophets rather than pastors, they always announce to the Nigerian public with fanfare that God has spoken to them.  Due to the frequency in which God speaks to Nigerian Christian “prophets,” it could be said that the only country that God enjoys speaking to earthly beings on regular basis is Nigeria.  As a result, the prophets never shy away from saying that they just spoke to God and God told them this or that in a barefaced manner.  Why is it that God rarely speaks to Christian pastors in other parts of the world?

Third, Islam was established in Arabia.  Today, there are millions of Muslims in every part of the world.  One of the sacred duties that a Muslim must carry out in his or her lifetime is going on a hajj or pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.  Thus, Muslims from every part of the world attend the hajj, including those from Nigeria.  The difference between Nigerian Muslims and Arabian, Iranian, Pakistani, Afghan, and other Muslims is that they do not bear the title “Alhaji/Alhaja” the way Nigerians do.  It is rare to hear of an Arab or Iranian or a Pakistani or an Indonesian being addressed as Alhaji or Alhaja.  They know that the hajj is a sacred ritual that connects the individual to Allah, therefore, treat it with much respect.  On the other hand, Nigerians who attend the hajj use the title as if it is an educational or professional qualification.  Sometimes one wonders whether the Arabs really take Nigerian Muslims seriously because of the Nigerian tendency to exploit situations, even sacred rituals, and places, to the extent that people are publicly and officially addressed as “Alhaji or “Alhaja.  It is sad that a sacred religious pilgrimage is converted into a secularized title to gain advantage in society.

Fourth, Nigeria has not established any major technological or engineering or architectural niche in spearheading innovation in the world, yet Nigerians now treat some of their qualifications as titles.  Today, it is not unusual to address someone as “Engineer”, “Architect”, “Accountant” as both professional and social titles even when they are not engaged in the profession that they acquired their education.  In the U.S., Japan, Canada, Germany, France, it is rare to hear someone being addressed as an “Engineer,” “Accountant,” Architect” when such a person is not actively engaged in the profession.  Moreover, such titles are mostly recognized and addressed as such during professional conferences and working situations, but not necessarily in social gatherings.  In Nigeria, even in social gatherings, instead of using the “Mr.” or Ms. or Mrs., an individual is likely to be addressed as “Engineer this, Accountant that, Architect that.”  In other parts of the world, people are only addressed professionally when they are fully engaged in a working environment but not as a title in a social or political gathering. In Japan or Germany, it is possible to meet an Engineer or Architect who has accomplished so much in his or her field and yet is as simple and humble as possible.  In Nigeria, the ego must be boosted, and everyone is obligated to know who is “Engineer John Doe, Architect Jane Doe, and Accountant John Doe.”

Fifth, due to the exaggerated lifestyle, almost all university teachers in Nigeria want to be addressed as “Professors” even when they are no longer teaching.  The ego trip is so profound that even those who have Ph.Ds. prefer to be addressed as “Professor.”   Again, in other parts of the world, people are not driven to bear professional titles outside the environment in which they perform their academic functions.  In Nigeria, some individuals would not respond if they were not addressed as “Professor” or “Dr.” Therefore, it is very common in social and political gatherings in Nigeria for certain individuals to be addressed as “Professor This,” or “Professor that.”  Even those who only teach part-time also prefer to be addressed as “professors”.  For some of those who have PH.D., they feel insulted or belittled if the “Dr.” is not mentioned, even when they are in their villages among family and community members. Some Nigerians would go as far as possible to remind people to address them as Dr. In other parts of the world, it is not a big deal if a person is not addressed as a Dr., even though the individual has a Ph.D. degree. 

Sixth, following the same pathological tendency toward ego-boosting, the members of the legal profession in Nigeria, especially those who have been knighted with the Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) title, it is a must that they are addressed as SAN, whether in the court of law or in a social gathering.  Therefore, no day goes by on Nigerian television where an individual who is a lawyer and has acquired the senior advocate status is not addressed as a SAN.  Like the Professor, Dr, Engineer, Accountant, Architect, the SAN must be acknowledged in any gathering otherwise the person might feel belittled or undervalued.  Again, it is SAN this and SAN that. The Mr. or Ms. or Mrs. is not enough without the SAN in Nigeria. Nigerians have a tendency to copy from others and then overindulge in exercising or expressing the copied idea or practice.

Additionally, members of the legal profession simply can’t get their acts together.  It is not unusual for two judges to render different judicial decisions on the same case.  Likewise, it is not unusual for a politician to take a case that is being tried in one court to another court to seek a favorable ruling from a judge who is more sympathetic to his or her point of view.  At the end, the judges end up rendering confusing and contradictory decisions that baffle the population.  Even judges at the Supreme Court suffer from this malaise.  On several occasions, cases that involved powerful individuals in society are dismissed on TECHNICAL GROUNDS even when there is strong or sufficient evidence to support conviction.   This is the reason Nigerians have no faith in the legal system.  Similarly, perhaps to join the political bandwagon, some lawyers want to get rich very quickly, hence, ask for indefensible amounts when they file civil suits for their clients by asking for N500 million, N2billion, N10 billion or even N50 billion as damages.  This is an abuse of professional conduct. Again, everything is reduced to MONEY, MONEY, and MONEY. If this pattern of behavior continues, high legal fees and damages in civil cases could contribute to massive corruption and the wrecking of the country financially.

Seventh, in Nigeria, when an individual publishes a book, the launching of the book is treated like a carnival.  In particular, if the writer is a public official or a politician or a university professor or a recognizable public figure, the book launching is turned into a huge gathering, and every “who and who” in the country must attend to show his or her face.  Then speeches are made to honor the writer and the attendees are expected to buy a copy of the book before departing from the gathering.  The media will carry the news to inform Nigerians about the book.  In other parts of the world, it is not a big deal to write and publish a book.  It is not unusual to have an individual who has written ten or more books simply go about life without informing the entire society about his or her accomplishments.  In Nigeria, the ego must be boosted, hence the carnival-like atmosphere in book launching.

Eighth, due to the need for an ego-boosting image since it is not fashionable to be without a recognizable title, the desire for the chieftaincy title sometimes turns brothers against each other, families against families, and communities against communities as individuals fight tooth and nail to be bequeathed the chieftaincy title.  It is not unusual for those who have money to spend lavishly to influence the elite in the community who serve as kingmakers and chief-makers so that they are given the title. In some cases, where two or more people in the same family or community compete to be honored with a title, people die while fighting to acquire a chieftaincy title.

Ninth, a popular unofficial title that Nigerian masses bestow on their elites is “Big Man/Big Woman.”  This sycophantic title is bestowed on those who have acquired higher educational qualifications or occupy high-level positions in their places of work.  It is also bestowed on those who have acquired recognizable wealth through business.  Generally, in Nigeria, it is assumed that because an individual has a higher educational qualification and or occupies a high-level government position, the individual must be in possession of substantial wealth.  This is why it is not unusual for a Nigerian to refer to a highly educated or a high-level government official as a “big man” or “big woman.”  The expectation is that such a big man or a big woman is supposed to live in a big house and drive very expensive cars, as well as possess substantial amount of money in the bank.  Thus, if an individual who is referred to as a big man or big woman lives in a small house, and drives a less expensive car, some Nigerian might be tempted to say, “A big man or big woman like you dey live in this small house and you dey drive that cheap car.”  It is not unusual for even family members to tell their big man son or daughter, “your status requires you to have a big house in GRA and drive an expensive car to match your status”.  It could be inferred that due to the tremendous pressure put on those who are highly educated or are high-level government officials to live up to the public expectation that they are “big men and big women,” many individuals who fall under such category end up embezzling public funds in order to live the big man or big woman lifestyle.  The reason is that whenever money is needed, those in the family or in the community certainly expect their big man son or daughter to cough out money to take care of pressing issues anytime.  Thus, if the mother or father or wife or husband of a big man or woman passes away, the individuals is expected to carry out a grand funeral as if a festival is taking place.  Such a funeral costs money and those who do not have it are forced to borrow or inflate public budgets to commandeer some of it for the grand funerals for their deceased loved ones.    It should be noted that Fela Anikulapo Kuti hated the “big man’ and “big woman” syndrome that he decided to carry firewood in a Mercedes Benz to inform Nigerians that there was nothing special about possessing the vehicle in the 1970s.

 Generally, any individual who is referred to as a big man or woman is expected to spend more and do more in the family and in the community or in any demanding financial situation.  Thus, the big man/big woman syndrome is a major causative factor in influencing many public officials and civil servants to embezzle public funds. 

Tenth, Nigerian rulers enjoy all the panoply of power, like their former colonial masters.  Hence those elites who have had the opportunity to serve as governors and heads of state feel entitled to be addressed as “Your Excellency.”  To call any current or former governor without addressing the person as “Your Excellency” would be regarded as an insult.   As a result, the governor is always addressed as ‘Your Excellency.”  While Nigerians insist on the title, outside Africa, governors, especially in the US, do not care about such a bombastic title.  A governor in the US is more likely to be addressed as “Mr. Governor” rather than “Your Excellency.” On the other hand, Nigerians, like other Africans, enjoy mimicking everything of social value that their former colonial master passed on to them.  Therefore, it is a welcome delight to hear Mallam Dikko Kadda, the new governor of Kaduna State to say that he will not want to be addressed as “Excellency.”  Makare Majeed of Premium Times quoted him:

I don’t like the word Excellency because one can only be called an Excellency after the administration has ended. At that time people will determine whether I am Excellent or not. So I think it’s better for people to call me Mr. Governor than to call me His Excellency. I will prefer that and that will not put my head somewhere.

I want to be as normal as anybody because I don’t want that thing (Excellency) to get into my head. That is why I don’t want the word Excellency attached to my name now but I will prefer if people can call me Mr. Governor or my name Mallam Dikko Radda ( Majeed, 2023, March 27).

Imitating the British that created Nigeria, Nigerian elected and appointed public officials and civil servants love to be knighted like the way the British do.  In Nigeria, the knighthood comes in the forms of (1) Grand Commander of the Order of the Federal Republic (GCFR), (2) Commander of the Order of the Federal Republic (CFR), Officer of the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR) and (4) Member of the Order of the Federal Republic (MFR). The unpalatable part of these titles is that they are sometimes awarded to some of the greatest embezzlers in the country. Some Nigerians prefer to hold onto their British titles, hence, are addressed as “Sirs” in a supposedly independent country.  It should be noted that the British knighted former President Bill Clinton of the United States, but Americans rarely refer to him as “Sir Bill Clinton.” They call him Mr. President Clinton.

Why Do Nigerians Engage in Exaggerated Lifestyle?

Nigerians engage in this unnecessary, wasteful, and destructive antisocial behavior because the country is built on a faulty foundation.  The country was established by a foreign power (Britain) to enhance its strategic interest as it competed with other European powers to boost its hegemonic control of the world.  Thus, Nigeria was never created to satisfy the needs of the indigenous ethnic groups that constitute the country.  On independence, the country transitioned from external colonialism to internal colonialism where the members of the ruling elite assume that they must always remain in power.  Not only that, but they also believe that they have an inalienable right to transfer public wealth into their private wealth.  Therefore, the purpose of governance in Nigeria is simply to get into power and hijack public funds to build private financial empires.  This explains the resistance toward the restructuring of the country because those who wield power are afraid that restructuring, including a new constitution, would diminish their stranglehold on the contraption that they feed upon like leeches.

As a result, there is massive corruption as the ruling elite wine and dine with the people’s wealth, while at the same time, transferring a sizable chunk of the public wealth into private wealth. Consequently, the generality of the population is short-changed since public funds are not trickling down in the form of budgetary allocations for education, public health, public insurance, social welfare, business development, and the general well-being of the population.  Millions of Nigerians face a bleak existence since there is no clear-cut retirement program, no unemployment benefit, no impact-creating public housing program, and no subsidized public health system that citizens can use to take care of their medical needs.  Hence, on retirement from public service, the retiree is immediately forced into poverty as benefits are tactically withheld so that some public officials can make money.   This is why many retirees die before they get their retirement benefits in Nigeria.

Since the public sector is the surest route to create private wealth, any government program designed to assist the citizens is turned into a private wealth-generating mechanism.  This is the reason sometimes scholarship fees are not paid on time for Nigerian students abroad.  This also explains why during the COVID-19 epidemic, Nigeria spent billions of naira on palliatives, and yet most Nigerians did not even smell a naira of the funds.  Even members of the National Assembly were not convinced of the total amount that the Federal Government spent on COVID-19 palliatives.  Obinna Ezuguw reported:

The leadership of NASS had expressed doubt and reservations over the ability of the ministry to handle the distribution effectively to reach Nigerians in good time to alleviate their suffering. Citing the poor implementation of the Social Investment programme of government which transfers N5000 monthly to the most vulnerable Nigerians, the law makers lamented that after spending over N700 billion in the scheme, the impact cannot be felt in any part of the country (2020, April 20).

  This also explained the reason an effort to evacuate Nigerians fleeing from the Sudanese civil war faced logistical difficulties before the problems were resolved.  While the government claimed that $1.5 million had been allocated for transporting Nigerians to safety, bus drivers complained that they had not been compensated, hence, stopped the buses in the middle of the desert as a form of protest to express their feelings.  Gift Habib of Punch reported:

Nigerians are currently stranded on the journey from Khartoum to Cairo after the drivers of the buses paid to evacuate them complained that their fuel finished and that Federal Government has not remunerated them for the service.

As of the time of filing this report at 2:20 pm, our correspondent gathered that none of the Embassy officials are on the ground to explain to stranded Nigerians, especially the students why the drivers have stopped the buses over their claim (2023, April 27).

It is argued that public funds are ferreted recklessly because members of the ruling elite do not believe in Nigeria.  Thus, Nigeria must be restructured to avoid the ongoing “smoke-and-mirrors” game in the expenditure of public funds by public officials.

Conclusion

Nigeria is a product of British creation that does not reflect the beliefs, values, norms, and practices of the indigenous groups that make up the entity.  Due to a failure to restructure the political entity, Nigeria transitioned from external colonialism to internal colonialism.  As a result, Nigeria simply glides along with no direction as the ruling elite, acting like internal colonialists, are invading, attacking, and sucking the financial lifeblood of the country. They do so because they are mimicking the British who created the political machine.  By mimicking the behavior of the external colonizers, Nigeria’s ruling elites adopt an exaggerated lifestyle that is beyond their financial means.  Hence, to sustain such a lifestyle they turned to the state by embezzling public funds mercilessly just as the external colonialists exploited the resources of the colony to ensure their financial wherewithal. Consequently, a large proportion of the private wealth in Nigeria is pilfered from the public purse.

To feel important, Nigerian rulers and elites have developed the habit of crowning themselves with titles to clearly demonstrate that they have made it in life.   Those who have served either as elected or appointment public officials prefer to be referred to as “Senators,” “Representatives.” “Excellencies,” “Executive Governors,” in addition to national titles such as the “Grand Commander of Order of the Federal Republic” (GCFR), “Commander of the Order of the Federal Republic (CFR), “Officer of the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR), and Member of the Order of the Federal Republic (MFR) always.  It is obvious that it is a mimicry of the British titled nobility.  The habit has been nationalized to the extent that the entire country is addicted to titles.  So, in Nigeria, it is not uncommon for someone to be a Chief/Dr/Prof./Gen. at the same time.   Following the habit, Christian leaders prefer to be called evangelists, general overseers, bishops, apostles, and prophets.  Nigerians who attend the hajj prefer to be called Alhaji/Alhaja as if the title is an educational and professional qualification, even though the hajj is a sacred religious ritual. Those who have taught at higher educational institutions prefer to be called “Professor” always, even when they are not in an academic setting anymore.  Some Nigerians react disapprovingly if they are not identified with their titles such as Chief, Prince, Princess, Emir, Professor, Gen. Col. Dr., Eng. Arch. Acct., SAN, and so on and so forth.

The lack of humility leads to arrogance and impunity.  This in turn leads to a lack of respect for government institutions, public funds, and citizens.  This is the reason some individuals are above the state.  Since they are mightier than the state, they are above the law and cannot be subjected to the tenets of the law.  Hence, the police, EFCC and other law and security enforcement agencies dance around in perpetual circles without actually doing anything to stop  high-level public officials from  literally carting away billions of naira as if there is no functioning government in Nigeria. No week goes by in Nigeria without a public official being alleged to have embezzled billions of naira with little or no consequences. 

To clean up the mess and sanitize the polity, Nigeria needs to purge the nation of the internal colonialists (cabals) and their collaborators who have sucked the financial lifeblood of the country to the point where millions of Nigerians have been pauperized and rendered desperate.  Doing so requires purging the extravagant social value system that forces people to live above their financial means, thereby compelling them to incessantly steal from the state to enrich themselves and acquire unnecessary titles.  It is sad that many of the so-called billionaires and millionaires acquired their wealth from poaching the state. It is also necessary to reform government institutions like the Independent National Electoral Commission, NNPCL, CBN, ICPC, EFCC and other critical agencies.  Otherwise, the country could expire due to financial and political exhaustion.

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Priye S. Torulagha

The Russo-Ukrainian War: It is Time for a Negotiated Settlement to Avoid  Military Quagmire and a Possible 3rd World War

By Priye S. Torulagha

It is inferable that President Volodymyr Zelensky and his high-level government officials in Ukraine did not pay sufficient attention to the rift between Russia and the West concerning the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) eastwards after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw pact military alliance.  If they had conducted a thorough strategic analysis of the issue, they would have realized the danger of being caught amidst a power struggle between two military superpowers and tactically adopt neutrality as a policy in relating to both.   Perhaps, prompted by one power against the other, the Ukrainian leadership seemed to have ignored repeated Russian warnings that it would not tolerate NATO’s expansion to its borders through Ukrainian membership in the organization.  Hence, after repeated threats of possible military intervention, including the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the active support for Russian-speaking secessionists in eastern Ukraine, Russia launched a massive military invasion by sending thousands of troops and tanks into the country on February 24, 2022.  It justified the invasion by saying that it is carrying out a “Special Military Operation” to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians that were being harshly treated in a drawn-out war of attrition with the Government of Ukraine.

Of course, as a sovereign state, Ukraine has every right under international law to establish relations with the West or any country or bloc that is likely to contribute to the enhancement of its national interest.  However, in international power politics, the rules are not as clear-cut as it is expressed in international law.   Hence, no military superpower would tolerate another superpower coming too close to its borders.  Therefore, it is inherently dangerous for a less powerful military state that shares a border with a military superpower to take actions that are likely to be viewed as provocative.  It is like a deer poking the nose of a lion. Moreover, stepping into a rift between two superpowers is like a deer standing between two hungry lions.  To avoid being devoured by the lions, it is necessary for countries with lesser military capabilities to apply strategic thinking at all times in order not to be caught in the middle of a conflict between superpowers.

Unfortunately, perhaps, encouraged by the promise of support from the West, Ukrainian authorities decided to stand their ground and go toe-to-toe with Russia. Spurred on by patriotic zeal, the Ukrainian military fought hard and prevented Russia from swiftly capturing Kyiv and its environs when it invaded the country on February 24, 2022.  On the other hand, Russia seemed to have overestimated its ability to overwhelm Ukraine militarily when it launched simultaneous attacks stretching from the south to the north near Kyiv. Perhaps, feeling overextended after the initial phase of the invasion, Russian military forces withdrew from Kyiv and remobilized in the eastern and southern regions of the country.  The Russian withdrawal from Kyiv was perceived as a Ukrainian military victory by both Ukrainian and Western military experts and journalists.

Apparently, the euphoria following the Russian withdrawal resulted in the view that the Russian military is not as powerful as it was portrayed prior to the invasion because it could not overrun Ukraine and capture Kyiv as it had supposedly planned.  This perception seemed to have encouraged Ukrainian officials to believe that Ukraine is capable of not only defeating Russia by forcing it to withdraw from the country but also helping to deplete its military capability through a war of attrition and ignite a regime change to enable democracy to thrive in Russia.  It also greatly influenced the Ukrainian willingness to go toe-to-toe with Russia in a grinding war in the hope of driving it out of its territory entirely.

Perhaps, if Ukrainian political and military leaders had listened to a contrary view and reflected more on the historical source of the dispute that led to the Russian invasion of the country, the war might not have taken place.  Indeed, if Ukrainian leaders had taken the opportunity to listen and analyze the positions expressed by Prof. John Mearsheimer, George Kenan who calls for caution about NATO eastward expansion, and Robert Gates who cautioned about the danger of trying to incorporate Georgia, Ukraine (Carpenter, 2022, March 7).and other East European countries, the situation would not have deteriorated to the point where Ukraine is now fighting a grinding and destructive defensive war to stop the Russian attack on its territory.  It seemed that Dr. Henry Kissinger noticed the Western and Ukrainian views about fighting and defeating Russia, hence he referred to the euphoria as “being swept up [in the mood of the moment]”(Timothy Bella, 2022, May 24).

Purpose of the Article

it is argued that while Russia is likely to encounter tremendous difficulties in its invasion, Ukraine is more likely to face a military quagmire because the war is being fought in its territory and not in Russia.  In this regard, the purpose of this article is to explore and identify the potential factors that are likely to lead to a military quagmire for Ukraine since the war is being fought in its territory and not in Russia.  The word “quagmire” is used here to describe the untenable situation Ukraine is facing in its effort to push Russian military forces out of its territory in the ongoing war.

Ukraine is most likely to end up in a quagmire because its goal of winning the war by defeating Russia is overly ambitious compared to the realities of global politics and the imbalance of military power between the two countries.  Based on various statements made by President Zelensky and other top Ukrainian officials, it is deductible that the Ukrainian Government wants to (1) push Russia out of its territory, (2) possibly defeat and degrade Russian military capability, (3) possibly initiate a regime change so that President Putin is removed from power in order to democratize Russia, (4) ensure severe global economic sanctions against Russia for invading its country, (5) demand compensation for the infrastructural damage and loss of life caused by the Russian invasion, (6) conduct international tribunal to try Russians who violate human rights by committing war crimes, and (7) eventually gain membership in the European Union and NATO (Soldak, 2022, June 5).

To garner support from the West for its position, Ukrainian officials use terms and phrases such as “help us to save Europe,” “to have peace in Europe,” “regime change is necessary for Russia,” “Ukraine is fighting for the West,” and the need to “maintain democratic values.”  The “help us to save Europe” implies that Ukraine is at the West’s front line and is fighting to stop Russia from moving further west.  Thus, to stop Russia from doing so, the West must commit to supplying Ukraine with sophisticated jet fighters, drones, and long-range military weaponry to stop Russia and push it back.  This line of thinking implies that if the West fails to supply sufficient powerful weapons to enable Ukraine to prevail over Russia, the West will not be safe from Russian military expansion westward.  The argument about the need to maintain and sustain “democratic values” implies that Ukraine is a bulwark for democracy, hence, it is essential for the West to supply sophisticated arms to the country so that it can fight and defeat Russia to maintain Western values. This line of thinking is reminiscent of the Cold War argument involving capitalism and communism.  This time, it is an argument for democracy against dictatorship or authoritarianism. The regime change argument is intended to persuade the West to believe that President Vladimir Putin is the greatest threat to Europe, hence he should be removed from power to stop him from threatening the continent.  This is to encourage the West to get more involved in the conflict with the aim of working to change the regime in Russia. During the early part of the war, the Ukrainian leadership repeatedly called upon the US and NATO to institute a “No-Fly Zone” in Ukraine to stop Russian military aircraft from launching attacks. President Zelensky asked, “Is this too much to ask for, to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine to save people?” (Ray, 2022, March 28).

The Ukrainian goals are herculean for a country that is not a military superpower but shares a border with a military superpower.  The leadership hopes to accomplish these goals based on outside military assistance.  In other words, it wants to defeat a military superpower in a conventional war with weapons coming from outside the country.

This is not to deny the fact that Ukraine has a right to defend itself against a foreign invasion.  Indeed, it is undeniable that the Ukrainians have the unquestionable right to defend the territorial integrity of their sovereign state since Russia invaded the country in contravention of international law.  In this regard, while the bravery and patriotism of the Ukrainian armed forces are acknowledged, after having repulsed Russian forces from achieving a quick military victory at the beginning of the war and having been able to fight toe-to-toe in a grinding war of attrition with Russia, nonetheless, the Ukrainian goals are not reflective of the military realities on the ground and the treacherous nature of global power politics. The imbalance between the goals and the realities of international politics is likely to result in a military outcome that might be destructive to Ukraine.

First, Russia is a nuclearized military superpower.  It produces its own arms and can continue fighting the war for a considerable length of time.  It can sustain heavy losses and continue to fight because it has a gigantic military force.  On the other hand, Ukraine is not a military superpower. It has a limited supply of arms.  It depends greatly on foreign military support to sustain the war.  Its ability to continue to withstand the Russian military onslaught depends greatly on the Western supply of assorted weapons.  The fact that Ukraine relies on a steady supply of arms from the outside means that it is taking a tremendous risk because a gap in the supply chain will negatively impact the Ukrainian ability to withstand the Russian military attacks, even though it has been successful in knocking off Russian military facilities, including those in Crimea.

Second, having retreated from Kyiv following Ukrainian gallant resistance, the Russian forces have increasingly deployed long-range artillery guns to bombard Ukrainian positions, thereby, denying its infantry soldiers the opportunity to fight Russian troops face to face.  The change in Russian strategy and tactics put pressure on the Ukrainian government to seek long-range artillery weapons to avoid being overwhelmed militarily.  In response to the Russian long-range weapons, the West decided to supply similar weapons to Ukraine.  Hence. the Ukrainian forces have received sophisticated long-range military equipment like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HMARS); mortar systems; National Advance Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS); Javelin and AT4 anti-armor systems; anti-radar systems; Claymore anti-personnel munitions, and C-4 explosives to counter the Russian long-range weapons (Russon, 2202, August 11).

Thus, as more sophisticated weapons are sent to the Ukrainian forces by the West, Russia too is increasing the lethality of its own weapons to match the weapons being supplied to Ukraine.  Following the battlefield reports of Simon Ostrovsky and Yegor Troyanovsky, Judy Woodruff of PBS noted:

The delivery of Western precision rocket systems to Ukraine has changed the dynamic of the war, slowing Russia’s advance and lowering Ukrainian casualties along the frontlines. But Russia has increasingly resorted to using its own long-range missiles to wreak havoc on cities deep inside Ukrainian-controlled territory (2022, July 26).

Such a development simply increases the level of destruction and killing of people in Ukraine, thereby, compelling the country to ask for more sophisticated weapons.  Consequently, the more Ukraine uses sophisticated long-range weapons, the more Russia will do the same and the attendant result is going to be the further destruction of Ukraine.   The scenario that Ukraine faces concerning its demands for more sophisticated and long-range weapons is like the movie titled “Every Which Way but Loose”.   It cannot prevail as far as the battlefield is in its territory because the fighting will simply lay the country to waste.  Thus, Mexico’s President Lopez Obrador is right in encouraging Western nations to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine since it is the Ukrainians who are bearing the brunt of the escalation of the war. He said the West’s supplying of arms to Ukrainians is equivalent to saying “I’ll supply the weapons, and you supply the dead. It is immoral. How easy it is to say, ’Here, I’ll send you this much money for weapons, Couldn’t the war in Ukraine have been avoided? Of course, it could.” (“Mexico president slams NATO on Ukraine,” 2022, June 13).

Perhaps, to avoid its weapons and soldiers from being targeted by Russian forces, it is alleged that Ukrainian forces hide their weapons in civilian neighborhoods.  Amnesty International, issued a report after two months of investigation “accusing the Ukrainian military of stationing its troops and artillery near hospitals, schools and residential buildings in ways that may amount to war crimes” (Hayda, 2022, August 5).  Such tactics will simply contribute to the deaths of a high number of civilians.

Third, if for any reason, Russia feels overwhelmed due to massive Western military support for Ukraine, it has the nuclear option to threaten the entire Europe or even the world.  Due to this possibility, the United States, France, Britain, Germany, and other members of the European Union and NATO might not want to supply certain weapons that are capable of threatening Russia to the point where it begins to think about the need to use nuclear weapons.  Indeed, it is the fear of igniting a 3rd World War that compelled the United States and its NATO allies to reject the Ukrainian demand for the institution of a “No-fly zone”. It was amazing that the Ukrainian government really wanted NATO’s jet fighters to engage in a dogfight with Russian jet fighters through the enforcement of a ‘No-fly zone” and ignored the fact that such a clash would have resulted in a 3rd World War with the possible deployment of nuclear weapons.

Fourth, it is impossible for Ukraine to fight and defeat Russia based purely on arms supplies from the outside.  The reason is that as the tempo of the war increases, the more arms Ukraine will need from the US, Germany, Britain, France, Poland, and other Western countries.  Since the weapons are coming from the outside, it takes a while for the arms to arrive at the theater of war.  The gap between when the weapons are promised and the time that they get to the battlefield creates a logistical problem for Ukrainian fighters.  The gap will always exist as far as the war continues.  On the other hand, Russia depends largely on its own weapons, even though it has negotiated to obtain drones from Iran.  This means that Russia will continue to deploy weapons as quickly as possible since it shares a border with Ukraine and is not challenged by logistical problems as much as Ukraine in transporting its weapons to the battlefield. 

Fifth, due to the fact that Ukraine depends on weapons from the outside to resist the Russian effort to carve out the eastern and probably the southern regions of the country, it is not free to use the weapons as much as it might want because the countries supplying the weapons set conditions to limit the range that Ukrainian forces can fire them to avoid escalating the war to the point of involving NATO directly.  In other words, the US and its Western allies do not want to expand the war to the extent that threatens the national security of Russia, which could prompt it to nuclearize the conflict. A nuclearized war will turn into a 3rd World War with a devastating effect on the globe. The Western restrictions on the use of long-range weapons are going to limit the ability of Ukrainian fighters to counterattack Russia with the aim of compelling it to withdraw from Ukraine.   With the restrictions, it is doubtful that Ukraine can prevail over Russia.

Sixth, since the battlefield is currently concentrated in Eastern Ukraine, the arms flowing into Ukraine from the Western world must pass through Western Ukraine to get to the Eastern region of the country.  This creates a distribution problem because the Ukrainian military units stationed along the route from the West to the East of the country are most likely to keep some of the critical weapons for themselves instead of forwarding them to the troops on the battlefield in the East.  Moreover, as the weapons head to the East, their numbers are reduced as various military units along the way take some of them to fortify their own positions.  Therefore, by the time the arms actually get to the East where actual fighting is taking place, the fighters will end up with an insufficient number of weapons even though they need most of the weapons to counter massive Russian artillery bombardment. If the units fighting in the East do not get adequate arms, frustration might set in to dampen morale.  Already, some Ukrainian fighters have expressed frustration that they are not getting enough firepower to counter the massive Russian firepower.  Neil Hauer of the CBC wrote about the feelings of a Ukrainian soldier who said:

“[Kyiv] has not sent us any new weapons — and they’re not going to,”

“Everything new and fancy has been reserved for those other places: Kyiv, Kharkiv, the big cities. Headquarters thinks, ‘Well, you [in the east] have been fighting the Russians for eight years already. You’ll be fine.’(Hauer, 2022, June 8).

 Thus, Russian forces are likely to gain the advantage in the availability of weapons being deployed over the Ukrainian forces in the East since it is a military superpower, meaning that it produces arms in large quantities.

Seventh, another problem that bedevils the Ukrainian military concerning the shipment and transportation of weapons to the front is that elite military units in the cities are always more likely to get some of the sophisticated arms coming from Western nations.   On the other, the militias or less integrated military units are less likely to get some of the most sophisticated and lethal weapons because they are undervalued since they do not belong to the regular units of the armed forces.  In fact, the members of the Territorial Defense Force have repeatedly expressed frustration that the overall military planning for the war does not seem to take them into consideration as part of the regular fighting forces, hence, deserve some of the most effective long-range weapons.  They complain that they do not get supplies on time, thereby, exposing them to the devastating long-range Russian artillery attacks.  Some members of the Territorial Defense Forces have alleged that it is a matter of the haves and the have-nots in the sense that the Regular Army gets most of the weapons and they are left with the remnants because they are treated as irregular military units.  They are the have-nots because they are not viewed by the Military High Command as part of the regular armed forces. Neil Hauer of the CBC again quoted the frustrated Ukrainian soldier who said:

You have to understand that there are two castes in this country,” he said. “There’s the upper caste, and then there’s us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: ‘Forward!’ 

“That’s how it’s always worked here [in Ukraine],” he said, before emphasizing that he doesn’t expect anyone to believe him.

“No one here wants to hear the truth,” said Nikita. “They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we’re f–ked.” (Hauer, 2022, June 8).

Thus, while the political and military leaders keep painting a rosy picture of how Ukraine will emerge victorious, the soldiers who are fighting the brutal war of attrition seem to have different feelings about their experiences on the battlefield.

Eighth, the battlefield is in Ukraine, not in Russia.  This means that the fighting will continue in the country and not outside the country.  The consequence is that the weapons used by both sides will impact Ukraine negatively since its infrastructures are going to be destroyed in the fighting.  As far as the battlefield is in Ukraine, Russia has no compulsion to stop the war because its territory is not being devastated as Ukraine.  Its citizens do not have to flee en-masse to escape the destructive bombardments while millions of Ukrainians must flee to other countries.  It is Ukrainians that are bearing the brunt of the war.  Consequently, Ukrainian counterattacks can be as devastating to the country as Russian offensive attacks since Ukraine is at the receiving end.  Hence, it was not surprising when an explosion, either coming from Russian or Ukrainian forces destroyed a prisoner of war camp (Correctional Colony #120) in which 50 people died in Olenivka, a Russian-controlled town in Donetsk Province (Bigg & Varenikova, 2022, August1). Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the blast, thereby necessitating an independent investigation to determine the culprit.

Ninth, as Ukraine bears the brunt of the fighting, it means that thousands of both civilians and soldiers might need medical services.  If the war does not end soon, the country might run into a situation where medical services become limited, thereby, exposing wounded soldiers and civilians to the possibility of death as the Russian long-range guns inflict serious damage on the people and the infrastructure.  If medical services become incapable of taking care of the wounded, morale of the Ukrainian fighters would be affected.  Already, some fighters on the eastern front have expressed concern about the lack of sufficient medical services to take care of wounded soldiers.  Again, it must be noted that Russia can send its wounded soldiers home for urgent medical care because Russia is not the theater of war.  As far as Ukraine is the theater of war, the country will run into a critical emergency medical shortfall as medical facilities are destroyed by the bombardments.

Tenth, as the West sends more weapons to Ukraine to equalize the balance of military firepower with the hope that Ukraine prevails over Russia, the war could drag on endlessly, turning it into a war of attrition.  A war of attrition is not militarily advantageous to Ukraine since the country is the theater of war.  Consequently, a war of attrition simply translates to more suffering for the Ukrainian population as both sides slug it out.  The battle over Mariupol which dragged on for months before Russia eventually forced the Ukrainian forces to surrender repeated itself in Severodonetsk until the Ukrainian government ordered its troops to withdraw to avoid Russian encirclement.  Already, Russia has captured Lysynchansk in a grinding exhaustive war after forcing the Ukrainian fighters to withdraw to avoid being surrounded.  Basically, a war of attrition or a protracted war is simply a game plan for more destruction and suffering by Ukrainian civilians.

Likewise, to succeed in pushing Russian forces out of the country, Ukrainian forces would have to destroy many of Ukraine’s infrastructures in a grinding process that is going to further devastate the country.  The civilian population would feel like going through hell twice.  If Ukrainian forces actually succeed in driving Russian forces out, Russia will counterattack to save face, thereby, exposing Ukrainian civilians to another hell of grinding war.

Eleventh, the more Western countries supply sophisticated military weapons to Ukraine, the more they get involved in the conflict, thereby turning it into a Russia versus NATO war.  Already, Russia has warned that it might end up targeting Western weapons being sent to Ukraine. For instance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned “We warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets,” (“Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine,” 2022, March 12).

Western officials are aware of the risk of escalating the conflict as they supply more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine.  US officials noted the risk by saying,

“We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we’re giving them,” (Stewart and Ali, 2022, May 26).  Thus, Western countries are on a tightrope.  If they fail to supply enough weaponry, Ukraine will crumble very quickly to end the war.  Such a development would be interpreted as a defeat for the West.  On the other hand, if they supply extensive sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, the country might militarily threaten Russia to the point where it might decide to use more dangerous weapons, thereby escalating the conflict into a Russia versus NATO War.

Twelfth, Ukrainian officials must be strategic in their thinking and not allow their emotions to influence their decisions.  The more the officials insist that they want to fight and defeat Russia, the more they are creating opportunities for arms manufacturers and suppliers to create conditions to make the war unstoppable so that they can continue to sell their weapons and make tremendous profit out of the unfortunate situation.   In other words, Ukrainian officials should not forget that any war, regardless of its justifiability and necessity, always provides an opportunity for arms dealers to sell arms.  Therefore, the more the war drags on, the more arms producers and dealers will continue to make tremendous sums of money while the country is incrementally destroyed through a war of attrition.

Thirteenth, if the Ukrainian government insists that it must continue to fight until Russian forces are driven out of the country, the more it will create opportunities for new weapons to be tested in the country.  In other words, the Ukrainian government is basically setting the stage for the country to be used as a testing ground for new weapons that have been recently developed.   Resultantly, government officials that insist on fighting until military victory is achieved against Russia are indirectly encouraging various countries to test the effectiveness of their newly developed weapons.  This means that Ukrainian civilians who remain in the country could be afflicted with medical conditions that were unknown before as new weapons are deployed and tested on the battlefield inside the country.

Fourteenth, a war of attrition means that not only will Ukraine pay dearly through massive infrastructural destruction and displacement of its population, but the world’s economy too is negatively impacted.  The reason is that as Western economic and financial sanctions severely impact Russia’s economy, it will respond by making it difficult for Ukraine to export its agricultural products, thereby, reducing the level of grain supply to the world market. The insufficiency in grain supply to the world market will lead to food shortages in many parts of the world.  The attendant consequence of this development is that hunger and a downturn in the world economy can take place.   In addition, the shortage in grain supply might actually boost Russia’s economy as the prices of various crops, especially wheat goes up, thereby increasing the demand for Russian grain to make up for the shortfall in Ukrainian supply. Even the recently negotiated agreement to allow the export of Ukrainian grains is merely a temporary measure since the war will determine future possibilities for the continuing exportation of Ukrainian grains.

Moreover, as the war drags on, Ukrainian farmers will not be able to plant various crops this year.  This means that the shortage of grains in the world market will extend to next year when the existing supplies run out.   

Fifteenth, economic sanctions will not deter Russia from trying to achieve its goal of weakening Ukraine.   Since President Putin feels that the West has no regard for Russian concerns by expanding NATO eastwards, he too might not want to end the war until the West calls for a serious negotiation to end the conflict.   It is predictable that the more the West continues to impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia, the more Russia will continue to militarily pound Ukraine with destructive capability to inform the West that the sanctions will not prevent it from accomplishing its goal.  The unfortunate thing is that this war is strange since Ukraine is not free to attack Russian territory in order to counterbalance Russia’s attack on its territory.

Moreover, the more sanctions the West imposes on Russia, the more Russia is likely to restrict its supply of gas to European countries, especially during the coming winter to enable the Europeans feel the effects of the sanctions that have been imposed on it.  Likewise, the economic sanctions are going to create hardship throughout the world.  Even Western citizens are already experiencing the pain that the sanctions have wrought.  Since Russian leaders know that the sanctions have an equal opportunity negative effect on the citizens of the Western countries that impose the sanctions, President Putin will not be deterred to continue his plan to weaken Ukraine. It should be noted that despite years of US sanctions against Iran, the country continues to pursue its strategic goals and objectives. Even Venezuela has been able to gallop along despite severe sanctions. Thus, if middle-range countries like Iran and Venezuela can survive years of sanctions, then, Russia can do the same by telling its citizens to look inward and develop ways of rendering the effects of the sanctions less painful.

Sixteenth, as Western nations continue to provide financial assistance to Ukraine to maintain its social welfare system and infrastructure, the more Russia will continue to attack various parts of the country to reduce the effects of the financial assistance.  It could be said that the recent attack on Kyiv was probably to inform the West that as far as its security concerns are not being addressed, Ukraine will pay dearly.  For instance, the bombing of the shopping mall in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine that killed about 20 people was probably intended to inform the Ukrainians that they will not experience peace as far as the issues which led to the war are not resolved (Lewis, 2022, June 27).  Of course, Russia denied that it attacked the mall, and instead claimed that it bombed an arms depot in the area.   It could also be said that the attack on Kyiv on the day that the Group 7 nations were holding a meeting in Germany was intended to inform the West that resolutions made at the meeting will not deter Russia from continuing its effort to achieve its goals in Ukraine.  It was surprising that on the same day, the Russian military even launched an aerial bombardment of various parts of Ukraine to let the Ukrainians realize that the West will not be able to protect them (Seldin, June 26, 2022).

Seventeenth, Ukrainian authorities should have it at the back of their minds that if a war of attrition continues, it could reach a tipping point where many European citizens are forced to spend more money to get necessities.  This, in turn, could force many of them to put pressure on their governments to negotiate with Russia to stop the war, whether Ukraine likes it or not.  In other words, the ability of many Western nations to support the Ukrainians could be determined by the reaction of their citizens if the economic situation in their countries becomes unbearable, especially during the winter.  In such circumstances, many NATO members might end up acting like Hungary which has taken steps to open a channel of communication with Russia by refusing to adopt some of the harsh economic sanctions instituted against the country. It is a fact that despite the harsh sanctions, some Western countries, including Germany continue to do business with Russia to maintain its energy supply in order to reduce the burden on its citizens.  Michael Hirsh quoted a former Europe Specialist in the US State Department, Edward Fishman, as saying: “Putin is continuing to make at least a billion dollars a day selling oil and gas, and the lion’s share is from Europe.  Individual European countries are sending military assistance to Ukraine but it’s dwarfed by payments they’re making to Russia for oil and gas” (Hirsh, 2022, April 22). Despite the sanctions, some Western countries continue to rely on Russian energy supplies because they are trying to shield their citizens from feeling the brunt of the harsh economic sanctions.

Eighteenth, it is quite possible that some NATO countries might hesitate to supply additional weapons to Ukraine if the war drags on to a point where their own stockpiles are being depleted.  The reason is that every country likes to maintain its national security by reserving some essential military weaponry for self-defense, in case of a military emergency. Evidently, if Ukrainian officials keep asking for more arms supplies from the West to continue a protracted war, a tipping point could be reached whereby some countries might simply stop responding to Ukrainian demands.  If that takes place, the coalition between the US and some European countries might be frayed as the US is pressured to bear the brunt of supplying weapons as other countries resist doing so in order not to deplete their own stockpiles.

Nineteenth, it is a strategic flaw to underrate the capability of Russia to withstand hardship necessitated by the harsh economic sanctions and the West’s continuing supply of arms to Ukraine to bleed the Russian military forces through a war of attrition.  The reason is that each time Western countries supply more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, the more President Vladimir Putin will justify the invasion of Ukraine by informing the Russian populace that it was necessary to take the “special military operation” in order to thwart the Western desire to set up shop at the Russian border by aligning with Ukraine. Such a narrative might convince many Russian nationalists to identify strongly with the aspirations of President Putin the way Stalin was able to galvanize support during the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union during the 2nd World War.  Nationalistic support will spur President Putin to continue the war, further adding to the suffering of the Ukrainian people since the battlefield is in Ukraine and not in Russia. Furthermore, such a development could polarize Russian society to the extent that those citizens who do not identify with the war could be treated as Western saboteurs and forced to flee or go underground after being accosted by the nationalists. It should not be forgotten that President Putin had said during the early part of the war that Russians who opposed the invasion of Ukraine are “scums and traitors,” and indicated that true Russians would “spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths” (Cohen, 2022, March 27).

Twentieth, it is a strategic flaw to look down on the capability of the Russian military to sustain a grinding war as the West continues to supply arms to Ukraine to bleed Russia with the aim of reducing its capability.  For instance, a Western assessment of the Russian military in late June noted “The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts” (Sly, 2022, June 25).  The reason is that the battlefield is in Ukraine and not in Russia.  Since Ukraine is the theater of war, Ukrainian soldiers are more likely to feel overwhelmed than Russian soldiers even though they are really feeling the intensity of Ukrainian counterattacks.  The probability of Ukrainian forces being overwhelmed is because while the Russian forces can retreat tactically as they did in Kyiv and later remobilized on the Eastern front, the Ukrainian military forces have no room to maneuver in such a manner because any tactical retreat in order to remobilize will create territorial spaces for the Russian forces to advance further into Ukraine.  In fact, in Severondonetsk in the Donbas region, after protracted fighting for two months, Ukrainian forces were ordered to retreat to save the unit from totally being encircled by Russian forces.  Unfortunately, as soon as the Ukrainian troops retreated, Russia claimed victory by capturing the city (Trofimov, 2022, June 24).  As far as Ukrainian forces are fighting a defensive war to protect their territory, they cannot freely retreat and remobilize since doing so would allow Russian troops to take more ground in Ukraine.  Consequently, Ukrainian troops have less option than to continue to fight until they win or become totally exhausted or are trapped, as had happened in Mariupol.   It is understandable that the Ukrainian authorities did not want what happened in Mariupol to repeat itself in Severodonetsk, hence they ordered the fighters to retreat to avoid being encircled and captured. It should also be noted that the Ukrainian authorities also ordered thousands of Ukrainians to evacuate from Donetsk following the Russian taking of Luhansk in July (Quinn, 2022, August 1).  To avoid the same fate, Russian forces will continue on the offensive in order to prevent a Ukrainian counterattack that might force them to retreat.  This means that having taken the city of Severodonetsk, Russian forces will continue to push forward in an offensive posture by pushing Ukrainian forces backward since they are fighting defensively.

Twenty-first, the war is viewed here as a quagmire for Ukraine because it is a middle-ranged military power that is fighting a conventional war with a super military power.  The unfortunate thing for Ukraine is that it shares a border with Russia that has enormous military resources to engage in a grinding protracted conventional war.  To go on with this war, Ukrainian political and military leaders put their hope on Western nations to continuously provide military assistance to them to continue to fight Russia in their own country.  The Ukrainian hope is a very big gamble because if the war drags on, the country will experience massive destruction as the Russians increase the lethality of their firepower in order to offset whatever weapons that the West supplies to the country.  Indeed, if Western nations supply sophisticated long-range weapons, Russia will deploy its own sophisticated weapons, including the massive utilization of the air force to blast every imaginable target in Ukraine.  In fact, Russia has already begun to do that.  Hence, its air force bombed Kyiv recently to cause enormous damage.  Yurii Ihnat, the spokesperson of the Ukrainian air force stated that Russia used its Tu22M3 long-range strategic bombers to attack Kyiv with four to six missiles  (Lister, Kesaieva and Ravindran, 2022, June 26).

Twenty-second, the war is also viewed as a quagmire for Ukraine because the Ukrainian political and military leadership allowed itself to be persuaded to believe that it can fight a war with Russia and win. It was this belief that led the leadership to insist that it will fight to drive Russian forces from the country and even suggested the need for a regime change in Russia.  The Ukrainian leadership was particularly carried away by the euphoria generated by the narrative that its forces were able to knock out a sizable portion of Russian military forces from Kyiv, thereby, making it impossible for Russia to achieve a quick military victory.  The euphoria made it difficult for the leadership to realize that the war is being fought in Ukraine and not in Russia, meaning that the country will face enormous destruction as the war becomes protracted. Suriya Jayanti aptly noted:


It has been said that, given how massively Ukrainian troops were believed be outmatched early in Russia’s invasion, not losing the war is itself a form of victory for Ukraine. The difference between expectations and the surprising resilience of Ukraine’s military makes it easy to misinterpret the current situation in Ukraine’s favor. But not winning is still not winning. Ukraine is in far worse shape than commonly believed and needs, and will continue to need, a staggering amount of aid and support to actually win (Ukraine is in worse shape than you think ( 2022, May 14).

Twenty-third, as part of the tendency to undervalue Russia, some Western experts and journalists suggested a regime change in Russia to save democracy and eradicate authoritarianism.  For instance, David J. Kramer wrote:

The best hope for democracy in Russia—and all of Eurasia—is for the international community to support Ukraine in its efforts to defeat Vladimir Putin.

The stakes for Ukraine, Russia, and the entire globe, for that matter, are enormous. If Ukraine can deliver Putin a fatal blow for his disastrous decision to launch a wholly unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Russia’s neighbor, it would be not only a victory over Putinism but a huge and much-needed boost to democracy around the world (2022, May).

It is arguable that the narrative advanced by some Western experts persuaded the Ukrainian political leadership to accept the view that the Putin regime must be changed in Russia to democratize the country and promote democratic values throughout Europe.  This perception prompted the Ukrainian Government Adviser, Liubov Tsybulska and former President Petro Poroshenko to insist on a regime change, apart from pushing and defeating Russia militarily.  Those who insist on not only defeating but effecting a regime change in Russia forget that the efforts to change regimes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria ended disastrously.  Russia is a very huge country, in terms of landmass and is a military superpower.  An effort to change the Putin regime could turn the entire Eastern European and the Baltic regions into Iraqi and Libyan chaotic situations.  It should be recalled that part of the rationale for justifying the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was to remove President Saddam Hussein from power.  A Massive force was used during the initial attack to create a “shock and awe” psychological effect that was designed to compel the Iraqis to give up military resistance.  Well, the Iraqi war lasted for about ten years and caused about two trillion dollars with thousands of people killed (Crawford, 2020, February 6)It should also be reminded thatNATO decided in 2011 to carry out a regime change in Libya.  Here again, the effort ended disastrously like Iraq and the country has since been thrown into chaos.  Although Col. Muammar Gaddafi was killed, the regime change resulted in the massive looting of Libyan arms by non-state armed groups.  The arms stolen from Libya led to the destabilization of many African countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique, and so on and so forth. 

Therefore, when some individuals speak about regime change in Russia, they are really biting more than they can chew because the consequence of effecting a regime change in Russia can result in the massive destabilization of Eurasia. Russia is neither Iraq nor Libya but a state with thousands of nuclear weapons.  If regime change in Iraq and Libya was not managed effectively, resulting in incessant power struggles among competing armed groups, does anyone imagine what might happen if an attempt to change the regime fails in Russia?

Twenty-fourth, while conditions one through twenty-third demonstrate the likelihood of Ukraine experiencing a military quagmire, it does not mean that Russia will not experience any hardship in the war.  In fact, Russia has already paid dearly for the high number of casualties among its troops.  Likewise, some of its prized naval ships and aircraft have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Additionally, economic sanctions are biting devastatingly on the Russian economy, financial resources, and global relationships.  Yvonne Lau noted:

            But all is not well with the Russian economy.  The Western sanctions and

widespread corporate exodus from Russia since Feb. 24 have ravaged the Russian economy – and its future prospects look even bleaker, according to a new report from Yale University researchers and economists led by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.

As of Aug. 4, over 1000 companies, including U.S. firms like Nike, IBM, and Bain consulting, have curtailed their operations in Russia….The international retreat is morphing into a larger crisis for the country: a collapse in foreign imports and investments…Russia has descended into a technological crisis as a result of its isolation (2022, August 4).

Apparently, if the war drags on, Russian military forces would be degraded in terms of personnel and materiale due to the grinding nature of the fighting.  Likewise, the political stability of the Russian state could be threatened as opposition to the war increases. However, despite the bleak prospects in the event of a drawn-out war, the Russian situation might not be as bad as that of Ukraine.  Hence, Ukraine is more likely to experience a quagmire than Russia due to the fact that the war is being fought in Ukraine and not in Russia.  Most of the destructions and killings are taking place in Ukraine.  The country’s economic engines of production have been seriously disrupted and winter is coming.

Twenty-fifth, apart from the concern that the war could escalate into a 3rd World War is the fear that an accidental attack on one of the nuclear plants in Ukraine could lead to a massive meltdown with disastrous consequences for Europe and some parts of Asia.  Already, there is concern that a shelling near or at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant damaged three radiation sensors and injured a worker at the plant.  Due to the implications, both Russia and Ukraine traded blame as to which country was responsible for shelling the plant. Concerned about the danger, the United Nations has called for an independent investigation to check the degree of damage to the nuclear plant and determine which country was responsible for launching the attack (“UN chief calls for access to nuclear plant after new attack,” 2022, August 8). This war is really very dangerous, and it is not a good idea to extend it tactically through a war of attrition.

Conclusion

It is obvious that it is disadvantageous for Ukraine to continue to slug it out toe-to-toe with Russia which is a military superpower.  Russia has the advantage of the economics of large military scale to continue to attack Ukraine as the West supplies more deadly long-range weapons to the country.  Indeed, the more the West supplies weapons to Ukraine without actually sending thousands of troops to get involved to fight, the more Russia is going to destroy Ukraine through bombardment from the ground and air.  Moreover, since the battlefield is in Ukraine and not in Russia, the more the Ukrainian authorities insist on fighting to drive away Russian forces from their territory, the more Russia is going to take more territory and divide the country into two.  Likewise, as the war drags on, Russia could end up literally turning Ukraine into a landlocked country by cutting it off from the Black Sea completely.

The only way to end this war is for the Ukrainian leadership to realize that the cost of totally driving Russian forces away from its territory would be tremendous.  It is necessary to realize that the more the war continues the more the country will be destroyed, and more people will be killed while millions of Ukrainians will end up as refugees for a long time.  Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership should tone down its goals, listen to President Lopez Obrador of Mexico and seriously consider the suggestion made by Dr. Henry Kissinger during the World Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland.  He suggested that Ukraine should cede some land to Russia to end the war.  To do so, he encouraged Western nations to persuade the Ukrainian leadership to negotiate with Russia.  Dr. Kissinger’s suggestions should be taken seriously because this war can easily escalate into a global conflagration if either Russia or NATO miscalculates to provoke a higher level of confrontation. Thus, Ukrainian goals such as asking for reparation and war crimes trials can be negotiated through the United Nations.

Those who insist that Ukraine must win the war in order to save democracy are indirectly suggesting that the Ukrainians should sacrifice themselves needlessly.  The reason is that it is impossible for the country to win the war against Russia without direct NATO participation.  If NATO gets involved directly, the result will be a 3rd World War because of the possibility of nuclear bombs being used.  Thankfully, the US, Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Poland, and other European countries are aware of the danger.  This explains the reason arms are being supplied to Ukraine with great caution to avoid escalating the situation. Indeed, the situation is very scary. The UN should work with other neutral countries to encourage a negotiated settlement of the conflict.

References

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Lau, Y. (2022, August 4). ‘There’s no path out of economic oblivion for Russia’:  New report reveals how corporate exodus has already wiped out decades of post-Cold War growth. Fortune. Retrieved August 11, 2022, from https://fortune.com/2022/08/04/russia-sanctions-economic-oblivion-yale-report-gdp-ruble-ukraine/.

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The Water Resources Bill:   An Instrument for the Expropriation of the Aboriginal Water Rights of Nigerians

By Priye S. Torulagha

The National Water Resources Bill is reminiscent of the “African Pride” oil bunkering ship.  The notorious or mysterious ship had the uncanny ability to appear and disappear while in the custody of the Nigerian Navy during the heydays of massive oil bunkering by ocean-going vessels.  The Nigerian Navy intercepted the ship several times and detained it while it was engaged in its inglorious bunkering operations.   It was rumored that the ship had the uncanny ability to disappear and reappear because it was owned and operated by some of the most powerful individuals in Nigeria, hence the Nigerian Navy had much difficulty in stopping its disappearing acts.  Similarly, the National Water Resources Bill, like the cattle colony or RUGA, seems to have many lives comparable to the mysterious “African Pride.”

It keeps appearing on the floor of Nigeria’s National Assembly after Nigerians had made it clear that they do not want it as part of their laws.  Thus, the bill had been rejected twice, during the 8th and in the current 9th National Assemblies.  It should be recalled that President Muhammadu Buhari first submitted the National Water Resources Bill on April 11, 2017, to the 8th National Assembly and it failed to pass due to its controversial nature.  Then, Hon. Sada Soli, the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Water Resources, resubmitted the proposal again on July 12, 2020, to the House of Representatives and it was rejected on  technical grounds on  July 23, 2020.   Despite being rejected twice, like a cat with many lives, the bill suddenly reappeared again in the National Assembly on Wednesday, June 29, 2022, when Hon. Sada Soli, resubmitted it for consideration.  Since the bill keeps reappearing, some Nigerians believed that like the “African Pride”, it is sponsored by some of the most powerful individuals in the country, including President Buhari.  Thus, just as the Nigerian Navy was not able to stop the African Pride on numerous occasions, it also seems that the National Assembly is not able to put a stop to the reappearance of the National Water Resources Bill after the bill had been rejected twice.

Following the belief that cats have nine lives, some Nigerians are convinced that the Water Resources Bill is actually a reincarnation of the cattle colony, grazing reserve, Rural Grazing Area (RUGA), and the National Livestock Transformation Plan ( NLTP) because it is intended indirectly to achieve the same goal (“Water Resources Bill, recipe for wars.” 2202, July 5).  Based on this perspective, if passed, the law will allow cattle herders to spread around the waterways of the country under the guise that the rivers, creeks, lakes, streams, and any body of surface and underground water in Nigeria belong to the Federal Government. Likewise, if passed, the states, local governments, and indigenous ethnic groups will automatically forfeit their rights to use the water resources in their communities without first obtaining permission, in some cases, from a national agency.

Purpose of This Article

The purpose of this article is to identify the reasons which prompt a considerable number of Nigerians to doubt the sincerity of the National Water Resources Bill, thereby vehemently opposing it. It is argued here that the bill is intended to achieve a goal other than the enhancement of Nigeria’s national interest since it is mostly promoted by members of the same ethnic group in a country with more than 300 nationalities.  Therefore, it is an instrument for the expropriation of the aboriginal water rights of Nigerians.

The National Water Resources Bill is officially known as “A Bill for An Act to Establish a Regulatory Framework for the Water Resources Sector in Nigeria, Provide for the Equitable and Sustainable Redevelopment, Management, Use and Conservation of Nigeria’s Surface Water and Groundwater Resources and for Related Matter,” is a very tricky proposition.  It is designed to nationalize or centralize the control, regulation, and management of all surface and underground water resources, including riverbanks in Nigeria under the authority of the Federal Government.  A federal agency or commission known as the Integrated Water System Management Commission will be solely responsible for regulating and managing water resources, under the Ministry of Water Resources. In some cases, citizens might need permits from the commission to use some land or dig boreholes.

The Federal Minister of Water Resources, Engr. Suleiman Adamu tried to justify the passage of the bill by saying that it was originally proposed in 2006 during President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration.  He added that the waters in Nigeria are already being regulated by the Integrated Water System Management Commission, so, there is nothing unique about the Water Resources Bill, apart from the fact that it is intended to effectively integrate all services dealing with water resources management in the country. He also indicated that all the water resources commissioners in the 36 states of the federation have approved or supported the bill.  He added that he is working with the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) and the National Assembly to pass the bill (Majeed, 2021, August 5).

The Chairman of the House of Representative Committee on Water Resources, Hon. Sada Soli, who resubmitted the bill maintained that those who criticize the bill are doing so without having read the proposal to understand the content.  He insisted that the bill must be passed because it is good for national development (Odizu, 2020, August 9).

The Reasons for the Opposition to the National Water Resources Bill

It seems that a large proportion of Nigerians are not convinced of the intentions of the bill.  Many Nigerians use terms like obnoxious, repugnant, draconian, odious, provocative, evil, and so forth, to refer to it because it is viewed as a Machiavellian plan to usurp the water resources rights of the Nigerian people, hence the strong opposition to the bill.   The bill is opposed for several reasons.

First, even if the National Water Resources Bill was originally proposed in 2006 during the presidency of Chief/Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, the bill has taken an ominous dimension, thereby negating the original intention to strengthen the management of water resources in the country.  During Obasanjo’s presidency, federal character existed, and decisions were made through consultation with various segments of the Nigerian population.  Evidently, Nigerians were not apprehensive of any surreptitious plan to take away their natural right to use surface and underground water resources. 

The requirement for a national character in national employment disappeared when President Muhammadu Buhari hired mostly members of his family, ethnic group, and religion into all the critical national security positions in a multiethnic and multireligious country.  The nepotization, tribalization, and Islamization were immediately followed by the effort to create cattle colonies or RUGA throughout the country for members of only one ethnic group in Nigeria.  Additionally, the lack of political will on the part of the administration to utilize the security forces (police, army, air force, and the DSS) to decisively crush Boko Haram, Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP), Ansaru, marauding herdsmen and bandits creates doubt about the sincerity of the administration on the Water Resources Bill. Thus, the failure to use decisive action in dealing with those who are terrorizing Nigerians creates the impression that there is a hidden agenda to accomplish a goal that is different from the strategic interest of Nigeria.  This explains why the 2006 effort by President Obasanjo cannot be compared with the current effort because the political dynamics have changed dramatically to cause most Nigerians to view the matter as an existential threat.

Second, the point made by the Minister of Water Resources, Suleiman Adamu, and Hon. Sada Soli, the Chairman of the House of Representative Committee on Water Resources that the bill does not contain any information dealing with cattle colonies or RUGA but is focused on ensuring effective management of the water resources of the country is not convincing also.  The reason is that almost every law is written in a manner that allows for different interpretations, despite the existence of the concept of precedent in judicial decision-making. If the bill is passed, there is no doubt that those who support the establishment of cattle colonies or RUGA will argue that since the Federal Government owns all water resources in the country, cattle herders have a right to settle in any part of a river or waterway since they are Nigerians and are constitutionally protected. 

The fact that every law is interpreted and enforced differently in Nigeria is attested by the fact that when President Buhari made an Executive Order requiring people to turn in certain categories of prohibited weapons, the Nigerian Police Force responded by passing an order requiring Nigerians to turn in those firearms (NPF, 2018, February 26). As soon as the order was given, law-abiding Nigerians with such firearms duly turned in their guns to the NPF to avoid infringing the law, but the NPF never made any effort to enforce the law against cattle herders who openly carry sophisticated military weapons.  Thus, the police only enforce the law against non-herders while herders walk around with their firearms. The double standard creates the impression that herders are above the law and can carry such weapons openly while other Nigerians cannot do so. Any indigenous Nigerian found with such firearms is likely to be arrested but herdsmen walk totally free with their guns.

The Nigerian Constitution calls for the separation of powers among the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government.  However, in the 9th National Assembly, the legislative branch decided to nullify its constitutional authority by acting as if it is part of the executive branch.  As a result, it fails woefully to perform its duties as the “guardian of the public purse” and the watchdog (oversight) over the executive branch.  Due to the failure to operate based on the tenets of the constitution, the legislative branch has the habit of approving every financial loan that the executive branch asks for. Similarly, it approves almost every ministerial candidate submitted by the president without doing thorough vetting to ensure their qualifications and suitability. Moreover, the National Assembly allows the president to submit candidates for ministerial positions without assigning ministerial positions to each candidate.   Likewise, even though the National Assembly is aware that the heads of the Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) have repeatedly failed to submit comprehensive budget reports of what they did with the funds that they were allocated in previous years, the legislative branch continues to approve new budgets for these agencies without any sense of accountability.  The Auditor General of the Federation (AGF), Adolphus Aghughu, reported that in 2019, the Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) failed to remit or account for N4.97trn (Ojo, 2021, August 25).  Despite the damning report, the legislators continued to approve budgets for the offending MDAs without sanctioning them. Thus, impunity and lawlessness are   common facets of government operations in Nigeria.

Likewise, the law can be interpreted and enforced differently as demonstrated by the manner in which Nigeria regulates and manages mineral resources in the country.  The Federal Government insists that all minerals in the country are on the Exclusive List, meaning that only the national government has the sole responsibility to regulate, control, and manage their exploration.  Yet, it is only oil and gas that are fully nationalized and controlled by the national government while solid minerals are treated to a different legal standard.  As a result, the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South cannot engage in the private exploration of oil and gas, but Nigerians in the North and the Southwest can explore and earn private income through the mining of gold, tin, coal, manganese, bitumen, and other solid minerals.  The police, navy, and the army are constantly on patrol in the oil region to arrest private miners of oil but the police, army, and the air force do not go on patrol to arrest private miners of gold, tin, and other solid minerals.  Private miners in the oil region are called “oil thieves” while private miners in the gold and tin regions are free to earn a living.  Thus, like in Animal Farm, all are equal, but some are superior to others. In Nigeria, the law is turned upside down to favor some and punish some.

The credit for the maximum nationalization of oil and gas after independence goes to Gen Yakubu Gowon, Chief/Gen Olusegun Obasanjo, and Gen. Ibrahim Babangida who made sure the indigenes of the oil region had no power whatsoever to determine the exploration and marketing of oil and gas in Nigeria through the enactment of various military decrees or acts.  On the other hand, the three generals did not engage in the maximum nationalization of gold, tin, coal, diamond, manganese, bitumen, and other solid minerals.  As such, Nigerians in other regions are free to mine solid minerals to earn a living, and Nigerians in the oil region are not free to mine oil and gas to make a living.  In fact, the private solid minerals mining sector has an interest group known as the Miners Association of Nigeria (MAN) to protect and enhance its business and political interests.  Hence, the association opposes a plan by the Federal Government to stop mining in order to reduce insecurity in the country (Nnodim, 2022, July 22).

Another piece of evidence to show the reckless manner in which the Federal Government runs its affairs is the way it manages the Nigerian refineries.  The refineries were built to refine crude petroleum but for some years now, the refineries have not been utilized to do so.  Instead, billions of dollars are used to import refined petroleum products while the national government continues to spend large sums of money to maintain refineries that do not produce anything.  Kingsley Jeremiah of the Guardian reported:

The whopping sum of $26.5b, which the Federal Government has so far spent on the maintenance of its loss-making 445, 000 barrels/day capacity refineries, is capable of building three new refineries of the same size going by the cost analysis of refinery projects across the world.
 
Besides, the latest approval granted by President Muhammadu Buhari, who is also the Minister of Petroleum Resources for the rehabilitation of the 210, 000 barrels per day Port Harcourt
Refinery is higher than the total capital allocation to the health sector by successive governments from 2009 to 2018 (2021, March 21).

Thus, there is ample evidence to show that the Federal Government is not a  responsible and accountable agent in managing the national resources of the country.   Consequently, why should Nigerians surrender their natural rights to use water resources in their communities to the Federal Government and then turn around to beg the same national government to grant them permission to use the same water resources?

Third, due to the lack of an effective judicial system in Nigeria, the legal process is easily manipulated by the national government and the ruling elite. Moreover, the Federal Government has demonstrated through various actions and inactions, that it has a right to do what it wants regardless of the law, hence, it picks and enforces the laws it wants and ignores those judicial decisions that it does not like.  Under these circumstances, it is very dangerous to allow the Federal Government to have total control over the management of water resources.  It could use its enormous power to punish and reward Nigerians by depriving those communities which do not toe the government line by depriving them of the ability to use surface and underground water resources in their vicinities. Likewise, there is a possibility that the Federal Government might use its control of the water resources to refuse to grant licenses for water-related businesses in certain regions of the country while allowing businesses from certain regions of the country to use the water resources as much as they like since they are associates of those who wield political power. It should be recalled that oil blocks are awarded based on connections to the ruling elite.  This explains the reason indigenes of the oil region have few oil blocks while most go to those who are connected to the ruling elite from outside the oil region.

Fourth, the Water Resources Bill is viewed with suspicion by the generality of Nigerian ethnic groups because President Buhari’ tribalized the governance structure of the nation by recruiting mostly members of his ethnic group and religion into critical national government positions in a country made up of 300 or more ethnic groups.   The suspicion about the bill is deepened because only members of the same ethnic group speak and defend the efficacy of the proposal at a time in which herdsmen and bandits from the same ethnic group are violently  grabbing lands from various communities in the country. Perhaps, this prompted the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) to say that the “repeated presentation of the bill is a signal Buhari intends to flood Nigeria with displaced Fulani from the war-torn Central African Republic” (Jimoh, 2022, July 28). Hence, each time the officials speak about the bill, they create the impression that they are imposing a tribal policy on a multiethnic and multireligious nation that is likely to cause more harm than good. 

It should be recalled that Col. Abubakar Dangiwa Umar (retd), had warned about the danger of tribalizing the national government in a public letter he wrote to President Muhammadu Buhari.  In the letter, he cited Othman Dan Fodio’s warning about the danger of tribalization:

One of the swiftest ways of destroying a Kingdom is to give preference of one particular tribe over another or show favor to one group of people rather than another. And to draw near those who should be kept away and keep away those who should be drawn near (Ukpong. 2020, May 31).

In addition, part of Col. Umar’s letter also included the following statement, “Mr. President, I regret that there are no kind or gentle words to tell you that your skewed appointments into the offices of the federal government, favoring some and frustrating others, shall bring ruin and destruction to this nation” (Ukpong, 2020, May 31).    His warning about the danger of tribalizing Nigeria through lopsided appointments was ignored.  It should also be recalled that the late Dr. Junaid Muhammed too had warned before the 2019 presidential election about a cabal dominated by members of the president’s family due to the nepotistic manner in which people were being appointed to critical positions in government.  In an interview, Dr. Mohammed warned:

If they are going to treat this country as if it was conquered by them and or by their families, you can imagine what the picture would look like, if Buhari were to be given a second term and how they are going to use our resources and how they are going to abuse power (Abuh, 2018, February 17).

By nepotizing, tribalizing, and Islamizing critical positions in the national government, the present administration sets in motion a deep suspicion that there is a hidden agenda intended to radically change the country.  Hence, the opposition to the Water Resources Bill is a product of the fear that the rivers, creeks, streams, lakes, and coastal waters would end up being tribalized and politicized to favor a particular ethnic group if the bill is passed into law.  Therefore, when the Minister of Water Resources, Suleiman Adamu, condemned opposition to the Bill by describing critics as “detractors sponsoring false narrative,” (Odunsi, 2022, July 19) he is simply adding to the distrust of the proposal because Nigeria is a democracy and those who do not support the passage of the bill have a right to do so.  In other words, it is undemocratic to impose a law against the general interest of the population when the proposed law is perceived to favor only one ethnic group. Instead of criticizing those who oppose the bill, what the minister needs to do is spend more time explaining and answering pertinent questions in public gatherings in order to persuade the public to accept the merit of the bill rather than castigate Nigerians as if this is a military regime that can arbitrarily impose a decree on Nigerians.  Perhaps, the minister realized that he did not present the bill in a better light previously, hence, he changed his tone and tried to explain the merit of the bill on July 23, 2022 (Ewepu, 2022, July 23). Even this effort is insufficient to convince Nigerians to give up their natural rights to use water resources in their vicinities.

Fifth, if the bill were passed, the Integrated Water System Management Commission will become the sole federal agency to regulate the use of surface and underground waters in Nigeria under the Ministry of Water Resources.  In some cases, Nigerians might be required to apply to the commission to get permission to use certain water resources.  Even villages that have for centuries utilized the water resources in and around their environments might be compelled to write and petition this commission before they dig some boreholes or use some water resources. Can anyone imagine the bureaucratic bottleneck that will take place in a country of over 200 million people if Nigerians are compelled to apply for a permit from this commission before using certain bodies of water?

Due to the strategic nature of this commission, if the bill passes into law, it is predicted that it would always be headed by someone from the power-wielding groups in the country.  Why? The reason is that the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN) and other cattle-related interest groups are likely to use their political influence to ensure that only Nigerians who are favorable to the nomadic cattle business are appointed as the head of the commission. 

It is further predicted that those who have a different agenda in mind other than Nigeria are likely to put tremendous pressure on the Federal Government to appoint only individuals who have a strong attachment to their ideological orientation to head the Integrated Water System Management Commission. The possibility of this taking place is because since oil became a critical source for both public and private wealth in Nigeria, the oil industry has been dominated by Nigerians who are not indigenous to the Niger Delta/South-South zone. Indeed, the oil region is treated like a conquered territory.

Sixth, it is a dangerous proposition to allow the Federal Government of Nigeria to manage water resources at the present time.  The reason is that the Federal Government has never been a good manager of anything in Nigeria.  Anything it touches seems to turn into dust.  Increasingly, every governmental institution is gradually collapsing because the government is overblown, corrupt, and inefficient.  Consequently, the Nigerian Police, Nigerian Army, Nigerian Navy, Nigerian Air Force, and so on and so forth, are finding it difficult to ensure the safety and security of Nigerians as marauding herdsmen, bandits, kidnappers, and jihadists wreak havoc on the Nigerian population.  For instance, 300 members of the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) rode motorcycles into Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, and attacked Kuje prison for almost three hours without the army, navy, air force, and police responding to stop or apprehend them.  After completing the operation, they disappeared into thin air (“How Boko Haram attacked Kuje correctional facility,” 2022, July 6).  Mind you, Abuja is the headquarters of all the security forces in Nigeria.  The failure of the security forces to stop the attackers in Abuja is reminiscent of the failure of the security forces to stop kidnappers and bandits in Kaduna State. In fact, no state has many security bases as Kaduna.  Therefore, apart from Abuja, Kaduna is supposedly the most militarily fortified area in Nigeria. Yet, bandits, jihadists, and kidnappers have been terrorizing people in the state with little or no security countermeasures. Cheta Nwanze of Al Jazeera noted the increasing ineffectiveness of the security forces to contain the spiraling violent killings “The attacks on Buhari’s convoy and the deputy commissioner in Katsina state, meanwhile, clearly showed that Nigeria’s security forces are no longer able to protect themselves – let alone civilians – against bandits in certain areas of the country (2022, July 27).  The failure of the security services compelled Chief E. K. Clark to suggest to President Buhari to:

urgently convene a sober ‘National Discourse on National Security’ of former Heads of State, Presidents, statesmen and leaders, women and selected youths in Nigeria to work out a consensual and amicable resolution of this long, seemingly intractable, challenge afflicting the country since the entry of Boko Haram menace in the national psyche (Amaize, 2019, May 27).  

Consequently, it is unwise for Nigerians to surrender their right to use water resources in their communities to the Federal Government where the process is likely to be bureaucratized, politicized, and corrupted to frustrate Nigerians.  It is a fact that for decades, the Federal Government of Nigeria has not been able to provide reliable electricity to its citizens.  The energy situation is actually getting worse. Under the circumstances, why should Nigerians agree to surrender their natural water rights to the national government?

Seventh, Nigerians strongly oppose the Water Resource Bill, like the cattle colonies, grazing reserves, RUGA, grazing routes, and the National Livestock Transformation Plan because it is designed primarily to benefit members of a single ethnic group and not the generality of Nigerians.  This view is reinforced by the president’s persistent recruitment of mostly members of his ethnic group into all critical national security positions in a country that is made up of about 300 or more ethnic groups (Orebe, 2202, July 10). Moreover. Most indigenous Nigerians have no problem with the current water management system which is consistent with the traditional African communal system where communities are free to use the rivers, lakes, creeks, and streams in their vicinities without interference from any government. 

Eighth, it is a fact that in Africa, every ethnic group has a contiguous territorial space that it calls its own.  As such, they have a natural right to utilize the resources in their territorial spaces to ensure their livelihood and existence.  This view of natural rights is consistent with international law.  Resultantly, it is a violation of natural rights in international law for the Federal Government of Nigeria to attempt to take away the natural rights of the ethnic nationalities to freely use available water resources in their territories.  It should be recalled that Nigeria violated the natural rights of the people of the Niger Delta/South-South by depriving them of the right to make decisions about petroleum and gas exploration and management in their territory.  It should not attempt to violate the natural rights of indigenous Nigerians who have a right under international law to use the water resources in their communities.

Ninth, the Water Resources Bill violates the Land Use Act which gives the governors of the states the constitutional power to manage the lands in their states on behalf of their citizens.  The lands include water resources as well.  it is suspicious to say that the governors have acceded to the National Water Resources Bill without addressing the issue of water rights with their citizens.    Before the governors accede to giving the Federal Government the power to regulate water resources in the country, they must first seek the approval of their citizens since they were elected by the citizens to serve as governors. The right to use water resources in the country is a major national issue and no governor should sneakily grant approval to a national plan that is intended to strip their citizens of the right to water resources.

Before the National Assembly deliberate whether to pass the bill or not, it should allow Nigerians sufficient time to review the matter since their rights to use water resources in their communities are at stake.  Such an important issue should not be rushed through the National Assembly in a clandestine manner as if the members do not want Nigerians to know what is actually taking place. Udora Orizu, a reporter for This Day reported the reaction of the National Labor Congress toward the water resources bill:

On its part, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) in a statement signed by its President, Ayuba Wabba, warned against legislative abuse or betrayal of Nigerians if the bill was passed without public engagement and scrutiny, adding that already, the sentiments expressed against the bill are too grave to be brushed off (2022, July 12).

Unfortunately, it appears that desperate measures are being taken to pass the bill despite strong opposition.  There are also speculations that the Speaker of the House, Mr. Femi Gballlljabiamila could be impeached if he fails to push the bill through the House (“Exclusive: Northern Lawmakers plot to impeach House of Reps Speaker, Gbajabiamila over controversial Water Resources Bill,” 2022, July 25).  It is hoped that those legislators in the National Assembly from the South, Middle Belt, and some parts of the North should open their eyes and not let their constituents down the way they disappointed host communities by allowing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) to pass into law by giving them only three percent while approving 30 percent for frontier basin exploration.

Thankfully, to clear the air about their position on the National Water Resources Bill, the governors indicated that the bill is in contradiction to the existing constitutional provision which gives them the power to regulate and manage the lands in their states through the Land Use Act.  The Guardian reported:

Governors of the 36 states of the federation, yesterday, declared unanimous opposition to the contentious National Water Resources Bill, describing the proposed legislation as unconstitutional. They also said it failed to carry states along (Jimoh, 2022, July 28).

Tenth, if passed, the bill will be a threat to the national security of the country because it is mostly intended to diplomatically reward only nomadic cattle breeders against the general interest of the indigenous ethnic groups which have for centuries effectively manage their water resources with little or no governmental interference.  Some Nigerians infer that the bill is a population transfer scheme designed to encourage the settlement of nomadic pastoralists from the Sahel in Nigeria against the general interest of the aborigines.  In particular, Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State is a major proponent of the view that the bill is designed to spread cattle breeders throughout Nigeria. Ochogwu Sunday of Daily Post quoted the position of the Benue state government:

The bill, in addition to its provisions which are grossly at variance with the Land Use Act, is disguised land-grabbing legislation designed to grant pastoralists unhindered access to river basins, adjacent marine and coastal environments across the country. The bill is another version of ruga and cattle colonies whose objective is to create grazing areas in the 36 states of the federation for herders and their livestock (Reintroduction of Water Resources Bill: Count us out – Benue Govt fumes,” 2022, July 3).

Eleventh, the fact that the entire water resources management system in the country will be regulated and coordinated by one government agency in a very complex country will give too much clout to whoever might oversee the commission if the bill passes. It would end up as a political football like the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), Niger Delta Development Commission (NNDC), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) before privatization).  The president and the political party in power are likely to politicize the commission to punish those who did not vote for them.  Such a development is likely to lead to a political disaster for the country.  It is unfathomable that the Federal Government would want to create a super-agency that is likely to be bureaucratized, politicized, and corrupted to do the biddings of those who wield political power.  Even some governors might use their influence to persuade the head of the commission to prevent some communities from gaining access to water resources in their backyards without paying steeply or conceding to certain political demands. 

Twelfth, there are 300 or more ethnic groups in Nigeria.  Of this number, it seems that only members of one ethnic group want the National Water Resources Bill passed.  The fact that it is only members of a particular ethnic group in a country with more than 300 ethnic groups that want the bill passed creates the suspicion that it is part of the effort to spread cattle herders throughout Nigeria.  Many Nigerians seem to assume that it is an indirect way to establish herders’ enclaves.  The suspicion is deepened following the fact that President Buhari has invested so much political capital trying to establish cattle colonies and pass the National Water Resources Bill to fulfill his dreams and promises he made to a section of the country (Sunday, 2022, July 3). 

It is unfortunate that in a democracy, the interest of one ethnic group is viewed as being more paramount than the interests of the 299 or more ethnic groups which adamantly opposed the nationalization of water resources they have been using for centuries.

Thirteenth, the bill is intended to centralize power which is a contradiction to federalism.  In fact, Nigerians have been clamoring for the restructuring of the country with the attendant reduction of the power of the national government to enable the states and local governments to develop their economies instead of relying on central authority as if Nigeria is a communist state.  It should be recalled that it was the military that created a unitary system of government that now seems to concentrate every governmental authority at the center.   Thus, while Nigerians are calling for decentralization and functionalization of true federalism, it does not make any sense for this administration to want to centralize the management of water resources. The Afenifere, the premier Yoruba socio-cultural organization, alluded to the contradiction between citizens’ demand for decentralization and the administration’s desire to centralize water resources.  The Premium Times noted:

According to the Association, while the majority of the people are requesting more decentralisation of government, the bill is seeking more responsibilities for the Federal Government.

Afenifere noted that the National Water Resources Bill would have negative consequences and was a “cunny actions being cleverly foisted on the nation, which must be resisted by well-meaning Nigerians (“Afenifere kicks against reintroduction of National Water Resources Bill, 2022, July 22).

It is questionable that while there is an increasing call for the devolution of political power at the center, the Federal Government wants to concentrate more power in the national government by trying to impose draconian national control of water resources in a country that is democratic.  Even in the heydays of communism, the governments allowed their citizens to use water resources in their communities without undue interference, and Nigeria which has a federal system of government wants to take away the rights of the people to freely use water resources in their vicinities. A considerable number of Nigerians oppose national control because of the Federal Government’s reckless and irresponsible behavior in the management of national resources.  For instance, it took total control of oil and gas exploration, and the entire system is mired in massive corruption to the extent that the people of the Niger Delta/South-South have been pauperized, traumatized, and exposed to poisonous biochemicals that cause complicated medical maladies due to oil pollution and gas flaring. The region is probably the most polluted oil region in the world and Nigeria does not care about cleaning the pollution.

Fourteenth, the National Water Resources Bill seems to be an instrument for the expropriation and conquest of indigenous groups by rendering them powerless over the use of water resources, as the British colonial authorities did in taking over the control of mineral resources in Nigeria.  It should be recalled that part of the British effort to conquer and colonize Nigeria included a plan to render indigenous Africans powerless to use the mineral resources in their territories.  Hence, the British enacted various mining ordinances in 1906, 1907, 1910, 1914, and 1916.  For instance, the Mineral Ordinance of 1916 read:

The entire property in and control of the minerals, and mineral oils, in under or upon any land in Nigeria, and of all Rivers, streams and water courses, throughout Nigeria, is and shall be vested in the Crown, save in so far as such rights may in any case have been limited by the express grant made before the commencement of this ordinance (Raji and Abejide, 2014).

Thus, the National Water Resources Bill seems to have been adopted from the 1916 Mineral Ordinance and is slightly twisted to reflect water resources.   The similarity between the two further seems to indicate that those who crafted the current water resources bill are bent on expropriating water resources in Nigeria the way the British expropriated mineral resources in the country.  This possibility is being enhanced by the allegation that the plan to pass the National Water Resources Bill was finalized during a religious pilgrimage in a foreign country (“EXCLUSIVE: Northern Lawmakers Plot To Impeach House Of Reps Speaker, Gbajabiamila Over Controversial Water Resources Bill,” 2022, July 25

Fifteenth, perhaps, both the RUGA and the National Water Resources Bill would have passed without any controversy if President Buhari had not created the environment for their failure.  In other words, the president is a victim of his own making because he tribalized the national government. By so doing, he created the ground for suspicion on the part of other ethnic groups, hence, the adamant opposition to both schemes.  Thus, it is impossible for other nationalities in the country to accept a national policy drafted through the handiwork of only members of a single ethnic group in a multiethnic and multireligious country. The fact that the National Water Resources Bill is being pushed for passage by mostly members of the same ethnic group feeds the conspiracy theory that the bill is intended to achieve a goal that is not in the national interest of Nigeria. Consequently, it is viewed as a Trojan horse intended to expropriate the natural water rights of Nigerians.

Conclusion.

The surreptitious manner in which the National Water Resources Bill is being pushed for legislative approval after it has been rejected twice in the National Assembly indicates that the motive is driven by an agenda quite different from the strategic interest of Nigeria.  Hence, the president keeps putting pressure on the National Assembly to pass it before he leaves office.   The fact that the president keeps resubmitting it means that there is indeed a hidden agenda that the president feels he must accomplish before leaving office.

Unfortunately for the president and those who support the National Water Resources Bill, the reasons advanced to justify the passage of the bill are not convincing since it is a natural right for people all over the world to utilize the water resources in their environments without undue governmental interference.  Therefore, the motive of the bill is questionable and seems intended to take away the rights of Nigerians.  It should be reminded that the British passed mineral ordinances to expropriate mineral resources from indigenous Nigerians and render them powerless and the Nigerian military passed various petroleum decrees and or acts to expropriate oil and gas from the indigenes of the Niger Delta/South-South and render them powerless.  Now, some people are trying to pass a Water Resources Bill to expropriate water resources from indigenous Nigerians and render them powerless.  Moreover, the timing of the bill is totally out of place while insecurity is the most pressing issue that require urgent action.

The National Assembly should reject the water resources bill and focus its energy on solving insecurity, economic downturn, and massive unemployment as the country is teetering on the edge of the cliff.   The issues raised by cattle herders and Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Gumi concerning their perilous business situation in Nigeria require a national solution spearheaded by a president who appreciates the ethnic and religious diversity of the country to develop a workable plan after consultation with stakeholders throughout the country.  The issues cannot be solved through a tribal solution crafted by members of the same ethnic group.   

References

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Afenifere kicks against reintroduction of National Water Resources Bill. (2022, July 22). Premium Times.  Retrieved July 23, 2022, from https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/544377-afenifere-kicks-against-reintroduction-of-national-water-resources-bill.html

Amaize, E.  (2019, May 27).  Boko Haram sent ex-President Jonathan letter to convert to Islam – Clark.  Vanguard. Retrieved July 22, 2022, from  https://www.vanguardngr.com/2019/05/boko-haram-sent-ex-president-jonathan-letter-to-covert-to-islam-clark/

Ewepu, G. (2022, July 23).  Water bill for national interest, benefit – Adamu.  Vanguard.  Retrieved July 23, 2022, from https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/water-bill-for-national-interest-benefit-adamu/.

EXCLUSIVE: Northern lawmakers plot to impeach House of Reps Speaker, Gbajabiamila over controversial Water Resources Bill. (2022, July 25). Sahara Reporters. Retrieved July 25, 2022, from https://saharareporters.com/2022/07/25/exclusive-northern-lawmakers-plot-impeach-house-reps-speaker-gbajabiamila-over.

How Boko Haram attacked Kuje correctional facility. (2022, July 6). Vanguard. Retrieved July 9, 2022, from https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/how-boko-haram-attacked-kuje-correctional-facility/.

Jeremiah, K. (2021, March 21). Nigeria’s $26.5 billion maintenance cost enough to build three new refineries.  The Guardian.  Retrieved August 5, 2022, from https://guardian.ng/news/nigerias-26-5-billion-maintenance-cost-enough-to-build-three-new-refineries/

Jimoh, A. M. (2022, July 28).  Governors reject contentious Water Resources Bill. The Guardian. Retrieved July 28, 2022, from https://guardian.ng/news/governors-reject-contentious-water-resources-bill/.

Majeed, B.  (2021, August 5). Controversial Water Resources Bill: Federal Government interfacing with lawmakers, governors – Minister.”  Premium Times. Retrieved July 10, 2022, from https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/477757-controversial-water-resources-bill-fg-interfacing-with-lawmakers-governors-minister.html).

Nnodim, O. (2022, July 22).  Ban on mining’ll worsen insecurity, miners tell FG. Punch. Retrieved July 24, 2022, from https://punchng.com/ban-on-miningll-worsen-insecurity-miners-tell-fg/.

Nwanze, C.  (2022 July 27).  Nigeria’s fragile security architecture is collapsing. Al Jazeera. Retrieved July 27, 2022, from https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/7/27/nigerias-fragile-security-architecture-is-collapsing.

Odizu, U. (2020, August 9). Water Resources Bill is done deal, says House Committee Chairman. This Day Live.  Retrieved July 10, 2022, from https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/09/08/water-resources-bill-is-done-deal-says-house-committee-chairman/).

Odizu, U. (2022, July 12).  Controversial Water Bill back in N’Assembly.  This Day.  Retrieved July 27, 2022, from https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/07/12/controversial-water-resources-bill-back-in-nassembly/

Odunsi, W. (2022, July 19).  Nigerian Govt condemns opposition to Water Bill as critics allege ‘Fulani Interest.’  Daily Post.  Retrieved July 20, 2022, from https://dailypost.ng/2022/07/19/nigerian-govt-condemns-opposition-to-water-bill-as-critics-allege-fulani-interest/. 

Ojo, J. (2021, August 25).  Auditor-General’s damning report on MDAs. Punch. Retrieved July 30, 2022, from https://punchng.com/auditor-generals-damning-report-on-mdas/.

Orebe, F. (2202, July 10). Why represent the National Water Resources Bill?  The Nation. Retrieved July 11, 2022, from https://thenationonlineng.net/why-represent-the-national-water-resources-bill/). 

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Raji, A. O. Y., and Abejide, T. S. (2014). The British mining and oil regulations in colonial Nigeria 1914 -1960: An assessment. Singaporean Journal of Business Economics, and Management Studies Vol. 2, N10. Retrieved August 2, 2022, from https://singaporeanjbem.com/pdfs/SG_VOL_2_(10)/7.pdf.

Reintroduction of Water Resources Bill: Count us out – Benue Govt fumes.  (2022, July 3). Daily Post. Retrieved July 23, 2022, from https://dailypost.ng/2022/07/03/reintroduction-of-controversial-water-resources-bill-count-us-out-benue-govt-fumes/).

Sunday, Ochogwu. (2022, July 3). Reintroduction of Water Resources Bill: Count us out – Benue Govt fumes. Daily Post. Retrieved July 23, 2022, from https://dailypost.ng/2022/07/03/reintroduction-of-controversial-water-resources-bill-count-us-out-benue-govt-fumes/.

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The Eerie Resemblance Between the Factors that Prompted the Second World War and the Post-Cold War Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Priye S. Torulagha

priyet@hotmail.com

A critical examination of the factors which prompted Russia to invade Ukraine seemed similar to the reasons which prompted the eruption of the Second World War.  Due to the similarity, it is necessary for Russia and the United States, and their allies to maintain caution over the Ukrainian War to avoid ushering in a 3rd World War. To understand the similarity between the two situations, it is necessary to briefly review the pre-2nd World War period and then compare it to the post-Cold War events which prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the purpose of this article is to determine whether the factors which prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine are similar to the factors which prompted the 2nd World War.  It is argued here that indeed, the factors which prompted the eruption of the 2nd World war are eerily like the factors which prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A Brief Review of the Events Surrounding Post-First World War and Post-Cold War Leading to Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The 1st World War was fought by members of two contending alliances in Europe, namely, the Triple Alliance (Central Powers) and the Triple Entente (Allied Powers). The Central Powers included Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria and the Allied Powers included Britain, France, Italy, Russia, and Japan. The US later joined this alliance (Walt, 2003, 108 – 115).  To deescalate the conflict, different armistice treaties were signed but the most significant one was signed with Germany in the Armistice Treaty of November 11, 1918.

On the other hand, the Cold war began as soon as the Second World ended in 1945.  The two most powerful states at the end of the deadliest war in human history, the United States of America (USA) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) competed to have a geopolitical strategic advantage, and by so doing, attempted to divide the world into two ideological camps, the capitalistic democracy, and the Marxism-Leninism/communism.  These two camps were also known as the Western bloc (US, West European, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and the Eastern bloc (USSR and its Central and East European allies).  The Peoples Republic of China and North Korea, North Vietnam, and later Cuba tended to associate with the Eastern bloc due to their communist systems.  The former European colonies in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas were automatically grouped as part of the Western bloc since Western European countries created them (Rourke, 1999).  However, those countries, including former European colonies that did not want to join either of the ideological camps formed the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM), otherwise known as the Third World.  The European colonies that needed to liberate themselves militarily decided to associate with the Eastern bloc.  Since the US and the USSR had nuclear weapons, they opted not to confront each other directly to avoid destroying the world.  Hence, the Cold War was fought indirectly through proxy wars from about 1945 to 1990.  The Cold War ended when the Warsaw Pact and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) were disbanded on July 1, 1991, and December 26, 1991, respectively.

 It should be noted that the Warsaw Pact was formed by the Eastern bloc in 1955 to militarily counterbalance the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which was established by the Western bloc in 1949 to contain the spread of Soviet Union and communism (“Warsaw Pact Ends.” March 30, 2021).Thus, Warsaw Pact was designed to militarily counter NATO and vice versa.

The Similarity of the Issues Pertaining to the Post-Treaty of Versailles Leading to the 2nd World War and the Post-Cold War Leading to Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The issues pertaining to the post-Treaty of Versailles and the post-Cold War leading to the Russian invasion of Ukraine are similar in six ways. First, the Armistice Treaty of November 1918 which led to the cessation of fighting in the First World put all the blame on Germany.  This matches the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, leading to the Western view that Russia lost the war. Secondly, the dissatisfaction expressed by Italy and Japan over the sharing of war booty after the 1st World seems to match the dissatisfaction of Russia over the Western failure to dissolve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in order to equalize the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.  Third, the failure of the League of Nations to take appropriate action to stop Japan and Italy matches the failure of the United Nations to compel the dissolution of NATO and penalize the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Western Interventions in Afghanistan, Serbia, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya.  Fourth, the victorious Allied Powers paid little or no attention to the feelings and concerns expressed by Japan, Italy, and Germany just as the Western allies and NATO ignored concerns expressed by Russia that it was being encircled. Fifth, the German decision to pay back in kind for the unfairness and humiliation of the Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles resembles the Russian anger emanating from the view that the West cheated Russia by failing to stop spreading NATO eastward, thereby resulting in its decision to invade Ukraine. Sixth, the Nazi accusation that those who signed the Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles “stabbed the German nation in the back” is comparable to President Vladimir Putin’s statement which referred to Russians who opposed the invasion of Ukraine as “scums and traitors,” and strongly believes that true Russians would “spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths” (Cohen, March 22, 2022).

First, due to the drawn-out nature of the First World War, both sides (members of the Triple Entente (Allied Powers) and the Triple Alliance (Central Powers)) were exhausted, and Germany called for an armistice to end hostilities.  The German team, led by Mathias Erzberger met with Marshal Ferdinand Foch, the Supreme Allied Commander in his railway carriage in Le Franc port near Compiegne in France and negotiated.  Hoping for a mutual agreement to end the war, the Germans were treated as having lost the war when French Gen. Maxime Weygand issued the Allied terms for the armistice which involved German disarmament.  Having pleaded for lesser conditions to no avail, the German team signed the Armistice Treaty on November 11, 1918. 

 Germany was blamed for causing the war and made to feel guilty for it. The treaty obligated Germany to (a) evacuate its troops from the territories (in France, Belgium, and Luxembourg) it held on the Western Front within two weeks; (b) disarm by giving up its arsenal, including 5,000 artillery pieces, 25,000 machine guns, 1,700 airplanes, 5, 000 railroad locomotives, 5,000 trucks, and 150,000 wagons; (c) give up the disputed territory of Alsace-Lorraine to France; and  (d) allow Allied forces to occupy German territory along the Rhine until 1930(“Warsaw Pact Ends,” March 30, 2021).

Second, two months after the signing of the Armistice Treaty to cease military operations in the 1st World War, negotiations to finalize a peace treaty began in Versailles, France. Although about thirty nations attended, the United Kingdom, France, United States, and Italy dominated the conference.  Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria, the defeated members of the Central Powers or Triple Alliance and Russia were not invited. In what came to be referred to as the Treaty of Versailles, signed on June 28, 1919, in the Hall of mirrors of Versailles palace, harsh conditions were imposed on Germany. It had to do the following to comply with the terms of the treaty: (1) pay $33 bn reparation for causing the war,  (2) turn over the coal mines in Saar basin to France, in lieu of a plebiscite after 15 years, (3) give back the disputed territory of Alsace-Lorraine to France, (4) tear down its fortifications along the Rhine, (5) respect the independence of Austria which was taken from the Austria-Hungarian Empire, (6) recognize the newly created independent state of Czechoslovakia formed from some of the provinces of the Austria-Hungarian Empire, (7) forfeit some of its territories in West Prussia to Poland,(8) give up all its colonies in Africa and China, (9) drastically downsize its armed forces, including (a) reducing its army size from about 1.9 million during the war to just 100,000, (b) reduce the officer corps to just 4,000 officers, c) hand over most of its military equipment to the Allies and it could only produce new military equipment through factories approved by the Allied Powers, (d) drastically reduce the size of its navy and could only have six battleships, six light cruisers, 12 destroyers, and 12 torpedo boats, ( e ) completely eliminate its submarine fleet, (f) eliminate the air force completely and could only maintain 100 seaplanes, and (10) those responsible for causing the war and committing war crimes to face trial (Kiger, June 25, 2019).

Reactions to Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles and the Sharing of War Booty after the First World War

First, the Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles pushed the Germans to the wall as they contributed to the collapse of the German economy since it had to pay reparations for causing the war. This provoked anger among German ultra-nationalists who accused those who negotiated and agreed to the humiliating conditions of the treaties as having ‘Stabbed the German Nation in the back” to capitulate.  This sentiment resulted in the assassination of Mathias Erzberger who led the German team to negotiate and sign the Armistice Treaty.  The humiliating conditions also led the nationalists to accuse the communists and socialists of betraying the German nation.  The issue polarized German politics, thereby providing the opportunity for the ultra-nationalists to mobilize to take over political power. The Allied Powers (France, Britain, Italy, USA, etc.,) failed to pay attention to German concerns.  In desperation, Adolf Hitler and the National Socialists (Nazis) emerged on the German political scene and promised to avenge the humiliation of the German nation. 

Second, Britain and France gained most from the booty garnered from being victorious in the 1st World War by taking over most German colonies, including those in Africa and elsewhere.  Likewise, Germany also ceded some territories to France, Czechoslovakia, and Poland.  Japan and Italy felt cheated and undervalued by other members of their military alliance. The perception of unfairness in the sharing of war booty laid the stage for the gathering of war storms for the Second World War.

  1. Japan felt that it was supposed to be the imperial power in Asia and decided to create a new world order in that part of the world. It invaded Manchuria on September 18, 1931, and occupied it.
  2. Italy too was not happy about the manner in which war booty was shared among the victorious Allied Powers. The need to create an imperial status for itself resulted in its invasion and occupation of Ethiopia from October 2, 1935, to May 1936. 

Third, the League of Nations appeared powerless and did little or nothing to stop Japan and Italy from conquering and annexing Manchuria and Ethiopia respectively. Likewise, it could not even play a balancing role by persuading the Allied Powers to tone down the conditions imposed on Germany to avoid a violent reaction.  It was unable to establish a sense of fairness and equality among the states due to paralysis emanating from big power politics.  The failure ignited the Second War.

a.  The Second World began when Japan spread its conquering tentacles to China, thereby fueling the Sino-Japanese War which started in 1937 as China resisted the Japanese invasion of the country after taking over Manchuria in 1931 (Philips, July 24, 2018). Thus, Japan sets a new world order by attempting to change the status quo, thereby igniting the 2nd World war.

b. Amid one of the worst economic recessions that Germany encountered, Adolf Hitler emerged as the chancellor of Germany on January 30, 1933, following a series of elections and militant actions.  He also assumed the title of the Fuhrer on August 2, 1934, following the death of President Paul von Hindenburg.  He and the Nazis and other German ultra-nationalists ignored the conditions stipulated in the Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles and embarked on the massive development and modernization of German military forces.  Then feeling sufficiently equipped in military technology and economic enhancement, Germany decided to take back some of the Germanic territories.  It invaded Czechoslovakia by using a combination of forces known as blitzkrieg and took back the Sudetenland on March 15, 1939.  It invaded Poland on September 1, 1939, and easily overwhelmed the country.  Since Poland had a security treaty with Britain and France, the two responded and sent military forces to counter the German invasion.  This spread the 2nd World War as Japan continued its military operations to conquer Asia while Germany, in alliance with Italy, spreads its gigantic military machine in Europe and North Africa. Germany easily overran the Netherland, Belgium, and France.  To pay back in kind for the humiliation that the Allied Powers, especially France and Britain imposed on Germany, Adolf Hitler made sure that the French signed the treaty of surrender in the same railway carriage that Gen. Foch had made Germany sign the Armistice Treaty. Italy surrendered after the Italians executed Il Duce Benito Mussolini. By the end of the 2nd World War, over 60 people died.  Russia seemed to have borne the brunt of the war by losing millions of people to contain Germany and helped to defeat it with the Allies. The US dropped two atomic bombs on Japan to force it to surrender on September 2, 1945.

Third, the United Nations was established in 1945 after the end of the 2nd World War.  To a large extent, it was a resuscitation of the League of Nations.  The main goals of the UN are to: (1) maintain international peace and security, (2) develop friendly relations among nations, (3) help nations to work together to improve the lives of poor people, conquer hunger, disease, and illiteracy, and to encourage respect for each other’s rights and freedoms, and (4) serve as a center for the harmonization of the stipulated goals.  Thus, the UN is supposed to work assiduously in ensuring that peace and security prevail in the world.  However, this noble goal can only be achieved if there is a sense of equality, fairness, and justice in the global system.  Unfortunately, these factors are lacking, hence, the UN cannot ensure peace and security apart from adopting stop-gap measures to reinforce the status quo, thereby prolonging the agony for millions of people trapped in indeterminable conflicts.

Failure of the UN to Act to Ensure Fairness, Equity, and Justice

The United Nations, like the League of Nations, has failed to ensure peace and security in the world.  The failure is precipitated by big power politics played by the five permanent members of the Security Council.  They prevent the UN to act in a manner that reinforces justice, fairness, and equality through veto power, as evidenced by various incidents in the world.

First, when the Warsaw Pact was dissolved on July 1, 1991, and the Soviet Union ceased to exist on December 26, 1991, 15 sovereign states emerged from the dissolution. The UN would have been proactive in persuading Western countries to dissolve NATO to ensure new world order.  The reason is that NATO and Warsaw Pact were military alliances intended to counterbalance each other during a time of bipolar (two-power balance of power) system in the world.   Unfortunately, the UN did not work with the US and Western countries to dissolve NATO while the former Soviet Union dissolved the Warsaw Pact.  The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the failure to dissolve NATO created a military imbalance that reinforced a unipolar (one power) system where the US and its Western allies tended to dominate the world.  The perception that the US and the West cheated Russia to dissolve the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact contributes greatly to the Russian anger and the decision to invade Ukraine in order to counter NATO’s eastward expansion.

Second, the UN was structurally designed to fail through the intentional reinforcement of the strategic powers of the major countries that emerged victorious in the 2nd World War. As a result, five states, including the US, Russia, Britain, France, and China ended up with veto powers in the Security Council of the UN (UNSC).   The veto power allows the five permanent members of the UNSC to veto any legislation or action that they deemed a threat to their strategic interests, as indicated above.  The veto destroys the democratic process for making global decisions about peace and security and ensuring human rights because any of the five members can stop any action from taking place in a global system made up of 193 countries. Apparently, the veto neutralizes the principle of democratic majoritarianism that is necessary for the resolution of conflicts. 

Third, because of the veto, the UN was unable to deter the Soviet Union from invading Afghanistan in 1979.  The invasion turned the country upside down and led to the deaths of thousands of people after 9 years (December 24, 1979, to February 15, 1989) of an unnecessary war. The invasion was like the US invasion of Vietnam, where again, the UN was powerless to deescalate the conflict.

Fourth, NATO carried out an aerial bombardment of the Republic of Yugoslavia, from March 24 to June 10, 1999, to stop the bloody civil war that engulfed the country, especially in Kosovo.  Since the action was controversial, Russia too responded by sending forces to Kosovo to counterbalance the presence of NATO since the Serbians and Russians have historically considered themselves allies. 

Fifth, the Afghans had only temporary relief from the Soviet invasion of the country because the US justifiably attacked the country in October 2001 to drive away the Taliban government, following the Al Qaeda’s September 11, 2001, attack using commercial airlines to destroy the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City and a section of the US Department of Defense headquarters in Washington DC.  The Al Qaeda attack resulted in the deaths of almost three thousand people.  The US launched the military attack because the Taliban allowed Al Qaeda to operate from Afghanistan.  Unfortunately, the US and its NATO allies, including Britain, Australia, Canada, Poland, and so forth, remained in the country until August 2021.  The UN could not do much to persuade foreign powers to leave the country apart from providing rehabilitation services to the people. Again, thousands of Afghans lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands were forced to become refugees.

Sixth, the US and its allies decided to invade Iraq with the purpose of preventing Saddam Hussein from supposedly developing and using nuclear and biochemical weapons in 2003 during the height of its war in Afghanistan.  Australia, Britain, Canada, Poland, Spain, and other NATO members joined the war effort.   President Saddam Hussein was hurriedly tried and hanged.  The UN remained silent even though there were no nuclear or biological weapons found.  Iraq was devastated and thousands of people lost their lives.  Even in 2022, Iraq has not recovered and neither has it been stabilized.

Seventh, NATO-sponsored a military rebellion in Libya in 2011.  Eight NATO countries, including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America bombed strategic targets and helped to bring down the government.  Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of the country was killed.   The destruction of Libya resulted in the proliferation of sophisticated arms throughout Africa.  The arms and fighters from Libya contributed to the destabilization of several African countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Kenya, Uganda, and so forth.  Libya has not recovered from the destabilization inflicted by NATO.

Thus, what is happening today is akin to what happened prior to the 2nd World War as the League of Nations failed to perform its duty due to a lack of political and military power to enforce peace and security.  The UN too lacks the power to enforce a peaceful order since five countries have the power to veto any action that threatens their self-interest.

Eighth, just as the UN is a failing institution, the International Criminal Court (ICC) too is a failing organization.  It was established to investigate and possibly prosecute individuals who commit genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression (International Criminal Court, n.d.).  The ICC is expected to apply its investigatory and prosecutorial responsibilities in international law across the board against all violators, regardless of their status in the global system.  Unfortunately, the ICC seems to increasingly serve as an instrument of the strong against the weak.  Hence, it ignores human rights violations and wars of aggression perpetrated by the powerful states and concentrates more on arresting, prosecuting, and punishing political and military leaders of poor and powerless small states in the world.  Since African countries are the weakest politically, militarily, and economically, individuals in the continent that allegedly violate human rights are easily arrested and prosecuted.  Leaders of powerful states that violate the same rights are left untouched.   

Another noticeable weakness of the ICC is its tendency to characterize certain states as being good and others as being bad even when they engage in similar behaviors.  Hence, within three weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, speeches were being made about human rights violations and war crimes.  The speediness in desiring to file war crimes against Russian leaders for the invasion of Ukraine and the lack of will to do so in other war situations have compelled the Serbians, Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, and Yemenis to wonder whether their human rights are not as important as those of Ukrainians, even though they lost more people in various military interventions than the Ukrainians.  The Watson Institute of Brown University estimated that “at least 929,000 people have been killed by direct war violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan” (Cost of War, November 2021). The institute added that the above figures excluded those who died indirectly from the wars and the hundreds of thousands of individuals who suffered injuries, in addition to the millions of people who have been displaced because of the wars. Thus, the ICC seems to be playing favoritism by valuing and devaluing people based on where they come from. Is it morally, ethically, and legally justifiable to try anybody for war crimes in Ukraine without also considering the same for the other wars?

The Similarity between the Events Prior to the Second World War and the Post-Cold War Events Leading to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

As the title indicates, there is an eerie similarity between what transpired following the end of the 1st World War and what happened following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, leading to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

First, the Germans thought that the desire to end hostilities following the bloody and destructive 1st World War was a mutually agreed upon decision by both sides.   Instead, the Allied Powers behaved like victors in the war, hence, instituted the humiliating Armistice Treaty in November 2018.  By the time the Treaty of Versailles was signed in 1919, the Germans knew that they were solely blamed for causing the war and held responsible for the destruction and death.  This led to frustration and anger among some elements in the German population, especially among the members of the military forces.  The harshness of the conditions that the victorious powers imposed to punish Germany turned it into a pathetic vegetative state.  Indeed, Germany was forced into a state of economic comatose by the decision of the Allied Powers.  The anger led to the emergence of Adolf Hitler, the National Socialists (Nazis), and other ultra-nationalist Germans who despised the Allied Powers and decided to ignore the conditions imposed.  By so doing, they embarked on the technological modernization of the German armed forces.  When Hitler and his comrades felt that Germany had developed sufficient military capability to challenge the status quo, they decided to pay back in kind for the humiliation that the German people suffered.

In flashing back to the Ukrainian situation, it is noticeable that Russia underwent a condition similar to what Germany experienced following the end of the 1st World War.  Thus, after fifty years of the Cold War between the Soviet Union/Eastern Bloc and the United States/Western bloc, the members of the Soviet Union decided to dissolve their commonwealth. In doing so, each of the federated republics became a sovereign state.  Likewise, believing that the Cold War had ended, the members of the Eastern bloc also dissolved the Warsaw Pact on March 31, 1991. 

Having done so in good faith to ensure peace and security in Europe and in the world, former President Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union also signed an agreement for the unification of East (GDR) and West (FRG) Germany.  In return, the leaders of the Western bloc made conciliatory statements indicating a willingness not to expand NATO to Eastern Europe.  It is strongly believed that US Secretary of States at the time, Mr. James Baker, President George Bush Sr. of the US, former CIA director, Robert Gates, German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany, President Francois Mitterrand of France, Foreign Minister Roland Dumas of France, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain, British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd,  Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union Eduard Shevardnazde, Foreign Minister Oskar Fischer of the German Democratic Republic, Britain Prime Minister John Major, and Secretary-General Manfred Woerner agreed in various high-level meetings that NATO will not expand to Eastern Europe to threaten Russia (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).

For instance, West German Foreign Minister Hans Dietrich Genscher said:

that the changes in Eastern Europe and the German unification process must not lead to an ‘impairment of Soviet security interests.’ Therefore, NATO should rule out an ‘expansion of its territory towards the east, i.e., moving it closer to the Soviet borders” (Elbe, Spring 2010).

On February 10, 1990, West German Chancellor Kohl is quoted as saying “We believe that NATO should not expand the sphere of its activity(“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).The US Secretary of State, James Baker, in addressing President George Bush Sr, after discussing with Soviet Foreign Minister, Eduard Shevardnadze on May 4, 1990, stated:

I used your speech and our recognition of the need to adapt NATO, politically and militarily, and to develop CSCE to reassure Shevardnadze that the process would not yield winners and losers. Instead, it would produce a new legitimate European structure – one that would be inclusive, not exclusive (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017). 

After meeting with President Mikhail Gorbachev on June 8, 1990, in London, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher assured him by saying “We must find ways to give the Soviet Union confidence that its security would be assured…. CSCE could be an umbrella for all this, as well as being the forum which brought the Soviet Union fully into a discussion about the future of Europe” (“NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017).  In late March 1991, British Prime Minister John Majors responded to a question by the Soviet Defense Minister Marshal Dimitri Yazov concerning the interest of the Eastern European countries interest in joining NATO, replied “Nothing of the sort will happen.” (NATO Expansion:  What Gorbachev Heard,” December 12, 2017; Elbe, Spring 2010).

Thus, the general framework was that NATO would not threaten Russia.  Moreover, there were discussions about lessening the military aspect of NATO and transforming it into a kind of political coalition that could even embrace Russia. This meant that the US and other NATO members agreed that the organization will not be extended to embrace Eastern European countries.  Perhaps, unsure that the US and its allies will keep the promises made not to expand NATO, former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev warned against the danger of doing so while addressing US Congress in 1997 during a bipartisan meeting of a group intended to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons.  He said, “You cannot humiliate a people without consequences” (“Gorbachev warns Congress against NATO expansion,” April 16, 1997).Referring to the manner Germany was treated at end of the 1st World War, Gorbachev warned that Russia should not be treated the way Germany was treated.

Second, perhaps claiming victory over the Soviet Union in the Cold War, in contrast to the promise made by the US Secretary of State that “the process would not yield winners and losers,” the US and its European allies admitted former members of the Soviet Bloc to NATO and continued to expand by ignoring the potential consequences.  There are indications that France and Germany were not enthusiastic about extending the military organization eastward. France President Mitterrand even proposed to abolish NATO since a new order was needed in Europe.

However, there is a counterview to the narrative that the West had promised not to extend NATO membership to Eastern European countries.  Those who hold this view insist that while there were general discussions about not extending membership to the point of threatening Russia, there was no formal agreement restricting the extension of NATO membership eastward.  In other words, since there was no formal agreement, the West could not be held liable for breaking any promise made to Russia (Shifrinson, May 30, 2016). While the US and its Western allies insist that there was no formal agreement, the Russians strongly believed that the West made a promise and broke it by admitting former members of the Warsaw Pact and ex-Soviet republics to NATO, thereby threatening Russia.   In fact, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland were admitted to NATO in the late 1990s while Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia were admitted in the early 2000s (Masters, January 20, 2022). 

Third, whether there was a formal agreement or not, it seemed that the view by some Western high-level public officials and experts that the West won the Cold War probably influenced the decision to expand NATO eastwards, regardless of Russian concerns.  This was demonstrated by former President George Bush’s “Membership Action Plan” (MAP) to admit Georgia and Ukraine as members of NATO despite concerns about the Russian reaction in 2007 (Cohen, March 27, 2022).   The decision to move NATO eastward based on the view that the West won the Cold War is reminiscent of the German feeling of disappointment that its call for an armistice was interpreted by the Allied Powers as having won the 1st World War.  Former Soviet president Gorbachev noted that Washington grew arrogant and self-confident, claiming to win the Cold War, following the collapse of the Soviet Union by expanding NATO (“Gorbachev says U.S. grew arrogant after Soviet Union collapsed,” December 24, 2021). The eastward expansion of NATO led to various reactions.

a. A RAND study recognized the concerns expressed by Russians concerning NATO expansion by stating:

That said, certain factors indicate that the risks of an aggressive Russian reaction— including, under certain circumstances, a military conflict between Russia and NATO—may be growing. Russian elites increasingly appear to have concluded that the long-term goals of the United States and NATO are not compatible with the security of the current regime in Moscow. Russian leaders have noted with concern the steady conventional posture enhancements in Eastern Europe (now including former Soviet territory), ballistic missile defense systems, and the shift in strategic orientation of states that Russia views as clearly within its sphere of influence.”  (Frederick, Povlock, Watts, Priebe, and Geist, 2017).

b. Thus, Russia reacted militarily when Georgia attempted to join NATO by invading it and supporting breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.   In acknowledgment that Russia invaded Georgia to stop it from joining NATO, Robert Gates, the former US Director of the CIA and Secretary of Defense, advised Western alliance members to be cautious in their response to the Russian military incursion by saying “We need to proceed with some caution because there clearly is a range of views in the alliance about how to respond, from some of our friends in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states to some of the countries in Western Europe”(Shanker, September 18, 2008).

c. The anger emanating from the view that the U.S. and the West cheated Russia by reneging on a promise not to expand NATO eastward to threaten Russia led President Vladimir Putin to say “You promised us in the 1990s that [NATO] would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly” (Sullivan, February 24, 2022).The New York Times noted the restlessness of Russia as NATO continued to expand eastwards:

After a decade of NATO expansion into the former Communist bloc, a resurgent Russia

Is now vigorously opposing membership for Georgia and Ukraine and pressing those already in the alliance with threats should Poland and the Czech Republic cooperate with the United States on missile defense” (Shanker, September 18, 2008).

d. The danger that could follow the Russian military reaction against perceived U.S. and Western attempts to encircle Russia also compelled George Kennan, the US architect of the Western containment policy against communism and Soviet expansion, to warn that it was a huge mistake for NATO to expand towards Central and Eastern Europe.  He bluntly warned of the danger of NATO expansion by stating:

expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking …” (“Noted: George Kennan on NATO Expansion. (n.d.);  Goldgeier, June 1, 1999).

William Burns, the former US ambassador to Russia and CIA director reacted to the Bush administration’s “Membership Action Plan” by stating: “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite not just Putin” (Cohen, March 27, 2022).

The warnings by prominent Western personalities against the expansion of NATO to embrace Central and Eastern Europe were ignored by those responsible for crafting policy for NATO in Europe.  Samuel Charap of Rand Corporation noted: “The louder Moscow protested; the more determined western capitals became to deny Russia what was seen as a veto over alliance decision-making(Sullivan, February 24, 2022). 

e. For the Russians, it seemed that any relationship between Ukraine and the West is considered the last straw since it borders Russia directly and it is viewed by Russians as a sister state.  Hence, when in 2013, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal to increase economic relations with the European Union, violent protests erupted, thereby forcing him to flee to Russia in February 2014.  The Ukrainians referred to the protests as the Revolution of Dignity or the Maidan Revolution. Mr. Yanukovych was replaced by Oleksandr Turchynove, as acting president.  Mr. Petro Poroshenko eventually became the substantive president in 2014 and promised to seek membership in the European Union and NATO.  This created a feeling among Russians that the West removed a democratically elected pro-Russian and replaced him with a pro-EU and NATO leader.  Eventually, Russians felt that the Ukrainian rebellion was instigated by the West as part of its effort to bring it into the Western strategic orbit.  This compelled Ukrainians of Russian ethnicity in Eastern Ukraine to insist on seceding from Ukraine to join Russia.  Similarly, ethnic Russians in Crimea too demanded integration with Russia.  Russia invaded and annexed Crimea while actively supporting the Russians in Eastern Ukraine (“Conflict in Ukraine,” March 21, 2022).  

Following the Russian annexation of Crimea and the active support for ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainians became strident in their demand to join the Western Union and NATO to prevent Russian intervention in their internal affairs.  These actions eventually led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, thereby ushering in the Ukrainian War 

Conclusion

Based on the discourse, it is evident that the factors which prompted the eruption of the 2nd World War are similar to the reasons which prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. First, the Japanese and the Italians felt cheated for not being sufficiently rewarded for participating on the side of the Triple Entente (Allied Powers) to fight the 1st World War. This led to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and the Italian invasion of Ethiopia.   On the other hand, the Russians felt cheated that after they dissolved the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact to end the Cold War, the Western Alliance and NATO continued to expand eastward to threaten Russia.  The Russians expected the USA and its European allies to dissolve NATO to match the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact since both counterbalanced each other militarily.  Second, the conditions set under the Armistice Treaty and the Treaty of Versailles to punish Germany for causing the 1s World War were harsh and destructive to German survival.  During the post-Cold War, Russia felt that NATO’s incorporation of former members of the Warsaw Pact is intended to militarily encircle it.   Third, the Germans felt cheated that the Armistice Treaty and Treaty of Versailles were twisted to solely blame Germany for causing the war, instead of being used as a mutually agreed upon a formula to end the destructive war.  The Russians too felt that even though they decided to end the Soviet Union and dissolve the Warsaw Pact, the US and its Western allies interpreted the act as a sign of military and strategic defeat for Russia and a victory for the West and NATO in the Cold War.  Fourth, just as the Allied Powers failed to pay attention to the concerns expressed by Japan, Italy, and Germany before the eruption of the 2nd World War, the US and its European allies failed to pay attention to concerns expressed by Russia before the invasion of Ukraine.  Fifth, Japan, Italy, and Germany decided to change the Status quo by launching attacks which resulted in the 2nd World War.  Russia decided to stop further NATO expansion by militarily invading Georgia in August 2008, seizing Crimea and supporting rebels in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, and finally invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.  Sixth, it was predictable that NATO expansion eastward will trigger Russian military counteraction.  In fact, former Soviet President Gorbachev and the notable American diplomat, George Kennan (the architect of US containment policy) warned about the danger of NATO expansion. The danger prompted France and Germany to hesitate in supporting the expansion of the military alliance to embrace Central and Eastern European countries but went along with the plan. Seventh, any miscalculation on the part of the US and Russia on the Ukrainian situation can lead to a 3rd World War just as events in the post-1st World War led to the eruption of the 2nd World War. Eighth, while Western experts and media tend to ignore NATO expansion as a causative factor and solely blame Russia for an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, non-Western experts and media tend to focus more on NATO expansion as the causative factor for igniting the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ninth, Ukraine became a sacrificial lamb in a war that was totally unnecessary and is paying the price for entangling itself in the affairs of superpowers.

The implications are far-reaching.  First, the way Westerners/Europeans react to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the way they reacted to the invasion of Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen is quite different, thereby creating the impression that they consider the Ukrainians superior to the Serbians, Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, and Yemenis.  Second, even the way the UN reacted to the Ukrainian invasions is very different from the way it reacted to the invasion of Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and the civil war in Yemen.  Third, the International Criminal Court (ICC) did not threaten to investigate incidents of human rights violations and crimes against humanity in the cases mentioned above but is quite eager to do so on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This indicates that international law is not being applied equally around the world.  This probably contributes to the reason why most African political and military figures are easily prosecuted for allegedly engaging in human rights violations and crimes against humanity.  Fifth, the Western media react toward the Russian invasion of Ukraine as if this is the first time a sovereign state has been invaded by another sovereign state, thereby, ignoring all the invasions and interventions that have taken place since the end of the 2nd World War, including those in Africa, Asia, the Americas and in the Middle East. Sixth, the stringent economic sanctions against Russia could encourage Russia to join China and other countries to develop an alternative global monetary system.  Seventh, the severity of the sanctions can ignite a greater war if Russia feels squeezed. Eighth, the suddenness with which severe economic sanctions are being implemented against Russia could also negatively impact European countries to the extent of compelling some of them to gradually loosen their ties with the US and develop an independent strategic path. On the other hand, the Russian invasion could propel smaller Eastern European countries to seek full integration with the European Union, thereby isolating Russia. Ninth, Europe, like other parts of the world, has serious racial, tribal, ethnic, religious, political, and territorial problems that if left unresolved, could ignite a major war that can threaten the entire world. Tenth, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the attendant Western reaction have woken up Germany from a military slumber and might begin a vigorous military rearmament program.  The German rise could also spur Japan to do the same. Eleventh, the fact that President Joe Biden of the US and the leaders of France, Germany, Britain, and other members of NATO opposed the establishment of a no-fly-zone over Ukraine, as demanded by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, is a hopeful sign that the crisis might end eventually without escalating into a 3rd World War.  Of course, this depends on the avoidance of unnecessary mistakes in decision-making on both sides.

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